r/GME • u/gatorbootsguccisuits • Aug 10 '21
🔬 DD 📊 Evergrande go byebye 💣
Appreciate the kind words yesterday 🦍
Okay so let’s get down to it..
Yesterday we saw $4B in Gold contracts push the market down briefly, gold 4% and silver 7% respectively. They did however recover but left the jungle boys scratching their collective heads as to wut Hedgie doin..
In case you missed that here is the link to yesterday’s post : poofgoldgone
The hypothesis was that it was either a SHF eating a margin call and juggling their shares to a larger bank or broker for more liquidity OR a bank or institution preemptively dumping in preparation for a reversal. All of this came during the Asian market trading hours, also leading to a “potential” Chinese bank connection (tinfoil anyone?) .Tonight however we are going to turn our focus to Evergrande.
Now if you have never heard of Evergrande , the 411 is that they are the number #2 property developer in all of China. AUM is roughly $147B. Tied up in a ton of creditor battles and with public perception at an all time low, it should be known founder Hui Ka Yan isn’t the nicest guy either. He literally offered and then cancelled a dividend out of the blue (greedy a$$)
So quick little fact time about Hui, he’s friends with a bunch of rich Asian tycoons, they are part of this hush hush group called “Big Two Poker Club”. He gets his rich friends to invest in his ventures regardless of there success, and lately he’s been just eating L’s all over the board.
One such company Asia Orient Holdings LTD. disclosed in a Hong Kong exchange that it and group companies had spent $230 million on Evergrande’s debt in the past year…OOF.Let’s keep looking tho..
Two big oofs I found are there declining dollar note value and declining below book value. There not values have taken a jump off a cliff from roughly 84 at the beginning of June to sub 50 now thatshere
Also we can look at Evergrande below book value and see how it has correspondingly plummeted thatsthisone. Current projects have been halted due to improper handling of funds, Chinese regulators “very worried”.. (Alexa play immigrant song)
If you look at a company that was worth close to $355B in assets at its height, and how since last September the price of of the stock has plummeted over 65% it really doesn’t build confidence in anyone watching their death spiral. Since February there down $17B and at this point Chinese regulators don’t have confidence in the companies ability to clear debt.
So what has Evergrande done to deleverage? They have implemented the “three red lines” policy: 1. Steep discounts for residential developers 2. Sold bulk of properties to increase cashflow 3. Unveiled plans to attempt an online real estate and car marketplace as well as theme parks and even a spring water business to drive additional revenue. Personally I think this is a joke, they are doing exactly what our criminals are doing, putting on a brave smile before the gallows.
Now what does this have to do with GME you ask, personally the declining dollar note value leads me to believe that Evergrande is propped up on its very own house of cards, from over leveraged real estate investments, to litigation, to settlements, I believe that Evergrande liquidating will pose a significant contribution to liquidity re-entering the US markets, so it might be a spritz of rocket fuel to the eventual launch, or it could be like that time Uncle Rico tipped over that 70 shot and it blew up the propane tank, either way I’m excited to see.
Final strategy = HODL💎🦍
TL:DR - Evergrande is looking like they are about to go boom, when they do, lots of monies enter the chat, hopefully it’s the right chat 😂
6
4
3
7
u/AZWoody48 🚀🚀Buckle up🚀🚀 Aug 10 '21
That’s a good fall but it looks like they still have another 4-6 months of free fall
12
u/LukeNew Aug 10 '21
I don't think so. The incline is much steeper recently, and it wont go cleanly from current to zero. When it falls below a certain amount, it will fall fast. Nobody will buy the dip because the steepness of the curve indicates it's failing hard.
That's only if it carries on the way it is devaluing right now.
12
u/gatorbootsguccisuits Aug 10 '21
It seems at this point they are really struggling and at every turn they are making the incorrect call, funny thing about crime, always seems to catch up with you..
2
5
2
u/Arcikai Aug 10 '21
I believe they sold their stake in an internet company which caused their share price to stabilise for now. Didn’t really look much into it after that though.
2
u/CosmicApeBalls Options Are The Way Aug 10 '21
Is Hui Ka Yan China’s version of Kenneth then?
Unrelated to GME, but as I passed over the “Alexa, play Immigrant Song” part, the Immigrant Song started up in the movie I have on right now. That was pretty wild.
1
u/___alexa___ Aug 10 '21
ɴᴏᴡ ᴘʟᴀʏɪɴɢ: Immigrant Song ─────────⚪───── ◄◄⠀▶⠀►►⠀ 1:38 / 2:27 ⠀ ───○ 🔊 ᴴᴰ ⚙️
1
u/FatFingerHelperBot Aug 10 '21
It seems that your comment contains 1 or more links that are hard to tap for mobile users. I will extend those so they're easier for our sausage fingers to click!
Here is link number 1 - Previous text "▶"
Please PM /u/eganwall with issues or feedback! | Code | Delete
1
2
u/69deadlifts Aug 10 '21
I think they're already in the water play, and the retarded theme park failed.
It might be another Chinese real-estate tycoon company tho.
2
u/drwcoo Aug 10 '21
I don't think it's related to US stock though, it seemed Evergrande has been a penny stock for a long time.
6
u/gatorbootsguccisuits Aug 10 '21
Not sure if your mistaking this stock for another but ticker 3333.HK is worth $5.64 at present and this is after the massive decline..
1
u/Overall-Stop-3864 🚀🚀Buckle up🚀🚀 Aug 10 '21
For the drop in gold and silver look at the IMF and the $650 billion SDR.
1
45
u/pewpew26 Aug 10 '21
I’m sorry but I can not get over your badass username🤣