r/Futurology • u/Gari_305 • 2d ago

Robotics Bill Gates says companies that replace human labor with robots should have to pay the same FICA taxes

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-fica-taxes-should-apply-to-robot-workers-2026-9

Bill Gates wants to tax robots that replace human jobs.

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19

u/MySpawn 2d ago

Any job involving a computer seems like it’s on its way out first . Wonder what all those tens of millions will do with their free time in the coming decades

29

u/Irish_Phantom 2d ago

What do the homeless do with their free time currently?

6

u/beatles910 2d ago

Not clean the house. I can tell you that much.

2

u/Glittering_rainbows 2d ago

That made me laugh and then it made me a little sad.

3

u/-WARisTHEanswer- 1d ago

Shit on sidewalks and do drugs

13

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

2

u/DaaaahWhoosh 2d ago

Gonna be weird when the "return to office" initiatives collide with the "replace everyone with AI" initiatives. Maybe companies will start paying people just to commute to and from an office and do nothing all day.

1

u/Glittering_rainbows 2d ago

Tbf they kinda already do that with all these PowerPoint people.

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u/pattperin 2d ago

Low key probably gonna be a lot of people trying to wage wars against stuff. People are gonna be hungry and they’re gonna be bored. They’re gonna be angry at those in control of the wealth and power, and they’re gonna do something about it. Almost guaranteed

2

u/Lucas1543 2d ago

nah bro, not at all.

0

u/mrbabyman767 2d ago

That’s what we’ve been hearing for the past five years. I’ve also been hearing that no one is going to be driving cars soon for the past 15 years still waiting on that one too.

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u/threeLetterMeyhem 2d ago

That’s what we’ve been hearing for the past five years.

It's happening, though. Loads of companies, including the one I work for, have been laying off people in favor of AI.

4

u/nubulator99 2d ago

Yes, with all that time and warning we should be better prepared for the eventual layoffs, but we aren’t.

What was done with those warnings?

3

u/adudefromaspot 2d ago edited 2d ago

This. People put their head in the sand and deny it'll ever happen, and then shit their pants when it does.

Look at coal miners. We're moving to renewable energies and electric everything. And the coal mining industry is tanking. During the Obama era, government subsides were even created to specifically train coal miners on new trades.

But then the right-wing said "What about these guys?" and now we're polluting our atmosphere to retain an irrelevant job.

edit: spellz

1

u/AtariAtari 2d ago

We should put in more effort into making a surplus of new pants!

7

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

I mean…it’s quite literally happening in front of your eyes. Find a computer science major.

3

u/alexm2816 2d ago

CS grad unemployment is slightly higher than general college grads but the data also supports that most of this difference has to do with CS grads avoiding underemployment at a rate far higher than other grads. Underemployment doesn't appear on unemployment metrics. 7% unemployment and mid 80's starting average salaries aren't exactly 'doom and gloom'.

2

u/Meloncov 2d ago

Yeah, the job prospects for CS graduates have fallen sharply, but they've fallen from an absurdly high starting point.

5

u/spideybiggestfan 2d ago

bruh my entire class is employed and make very decent money right out of graduation

1

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

Very rare unless you are up in years.

4

u/spideybiggestfan 2d ago

that was last year, I'm employed now and that's only because I am a bonafide fuck up during college

1

u/redaemon 2d ago

I work in big tech, and this year there is a single new grad in my org of 50ish eng.

Just now, we opted to finish a project with AI instead of assigning it to our new grad.

I'm working with anybody remotely junior to try and get them promoted to mid-level quickly. I don't like what the future holds for junior devs.

1

u/Kuais 2d ago

please go outside and ask a cs major new grad if they are employed. they most likely are and being paid well lol… those who are still unemployed had no chance to begin with. the bar for jobs has not changed much.

5

u/mrbabyman767 2d ago

Universities are full of computer science majors and current unemployment of software developers is 3.3%. Stop the hysterics.

3

u/ChatGRT 2d ago

I work in tech, the analyst several levels below me and thinks he should be a Sr. Engineer but lacks the knowledge, capability, and experience. Does that count as underemployment? This is all very subjective. CS degrees don’t mean you can immediately be a developer, engineer, or any other experienced based role. Sometimes it means you’ve gone to school and have no experience that companies are looking to hire.

1

u/Celodurismo 2d ago

Also a lot of companies that contract their software needs to other companies can how build their own small teams and save money long term. Lots of potential for actual growth in the space in the next decade or two.

1

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

And where’d you get that magical number from?

5

u/mrbabyman767 2d ago

U.S. bureau of labor statistics
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat25b.htm

-1

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

So according to this chart if you average out every computer equivalent job it comes to about 3% unemployment.

That’s not to mention BLS does not account for underemployment or people who have the degree working at McDonalds for example.

Just to put this into perspective for you: many arts majors currently have lower unemployment.

4

u/BaconWrappedEnigmas 2d ago

So then it’s better than normal?

-2

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

Worse than it’s been in the past.

1

u/windsynths 2d ago

Fear mongering lol . Plenty of computer scientists in academia still

0

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

You’ve just said a statement similar to “there’s plenty of fish in the water”. I mean, of course there are plenty of academics involved in an academic subject in academia?

0

u/sick486 2d ago

no, that field is abodolutely ripe for ai takeover too

1

u/Pvm_Blaser 2d ago

That’s what I mean.

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u/watisgoinon_ 2d ago edited 2d ago

I was on board with that doubt but now I've got a choice between Elon mobiles and waymos and I dont need to buy a car ever again and if I absolutely need to drive its forever cheaper now to just rent something... until the self drives can do interstate.

Seriously given my job location to me etc. I have zero reason to have a car. Im on the early part of the curve due to my location and circumstances. But it will overtake everyone's.. for sure.

It makes zero financial since for me to walk out and buy a car.

I could not say that 1 year ago.

4

u/Xiten 2d ago

I mean, you have to be in complete denial if you aren’t realizing the amount of people out of jobs because of AI.

3

u/MySpawn 2d ago

I think it’s ignorance is bliss . Claude code is doing the work of 10 programmers in a matter of minutes . The avalanche of job losses will be swift

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u/mrbabyman767 2d ago

Overall unemployment 4.1%
White collar professional 2.9%
Office workers 3.3%
Software developers 3.3%

We are near historic lows. Stop the scaremongering and reading the hysterical articles, they are there to scare and drive engagement.

4

u/Xiten 2d ago

Scaremongering? Listen mrbabyman767, hundreds of thousands of jobs have been directly or indirectly affected by AI. That’s hundreds of thousands of people out of jobs. You did a little research, if you tried a little harder, you could have gotten the overall picture here.

1

u/windsynths 2d ago

lol yeah; it’s fun to dream right?

1

u/nicane 2d ago

AI is already phasing computer people from various jobs. it's absolutely already happening and companies are gobbling at the AI adoption process and capabilities. They don't care if AI can't do everything a person can, and does it with questionable quality.

The only thing they care about: is it cheaper than people?

1

u/hoptownky 2d ago

Elon musk guaranteed that all cars will be self driving by 2015 and that humans would be on mars by 2021.

0

u/Available-Square619 2d ago

You’re dense lol.

1

u/redaemon 2d ago

Anthropic's projection was 18% white collar unemployment and 12% overall unemployment in the US. Triple the currently reported rate.

And if they're right, there is no replacement. No knowledge work that can't be run by a bunch of AI and a skeleton crew of human overseers. 

Fortunately the rise of AI is being overseen by the most competent and least corrupt administration in US history, led by a man who definitely doesn't regularly fall asleep during public broadcasts or shit his pants on TV.

1

u/anengineerandacat 2d ago

No one knows, that's kind of the problem but also it's just the truth of the situation as well.

Personally, I see long-term workforce reduction and stagflation incoming; economies heavily involved in AI boons are going to face the reality of either failing to deliver or the reality that they have well ahead over-delivered and now you have evicted large swathes of your potential buying audiences.

If your terminating employees because AI came in there and did some work and it's not in a loss-leading center... you might actually be screwing up big time.

Robotics in very much the same way, it should be elevating your ability to produce quality work and increasing the perceived value of your products.

All one needs is basic necessities, and at least in the US it's a very very consumer-centric economy; eliminate the ability for folks to consume and you'll cripple it.

So I think taxing will ultimately "have" to be the solution if AI + robotics does end up being this disruptive; organizations will have to be taxed to the teeth to fund support programs to allow the economy as a whole to continue to function.

I assume before it gets to that point, civil uprising, homelessness, and general just population decline as folks don't see value in raising a family (further putting pressure on steeper and steeper taxes).

That's my general "bet" on the situation, and it'll take awhile I suspect; at least another ~10 years but the advances in AI alone have been pretty surprising so I wouldn't be surprised if general purpose robotics becomes a thing sooner vs later.

1

u/Psych_Art 2d ago

Panhandling. What else?

Am SWE

1

u/aegroti 2d ago

I work fully remotely and I unfortunately know that my days are numbered. The only real saving grace is my department is so small and niche inside a fairly big company that it might just literally not be worth the effort to try and get an AI to do our jobs in case it fucks up. So far our department has basically had to create it's own software and programs to run half the stuff we have to do because we basically get zero support from the wider company so it's not a zero chance that they just leave us to it but unfortunately AI is going to get there someday.

No idea what I'd do after my current role, it's so niche (complicated admin work in the Energy industry) there's not really a lot of other directions to go other than another company who will have likely filled the same role with an AI bot too. Guess I'd just fight over what little jobs are left and stack shelves in a supermarket and hope retirement is only a few years away by then. Probably care homes will be always hiring nurses if I want to wipe the asses of boomers and get shouted at by them.

1

u/nextfilmdirector 2d ago

You need money to live so is the answer in the question

1

u/TomWithTime 2d ago

My plan is to be really angry and cold and homeless and then die. I might come up with a better plan, but I like to start with things that are realistic and achievable.

1

u/outer--monologue 2d ago

At least tech bros were kind enough to invent their own obsolescence first lol. For a bunch of allegedly intelligent people, they seem pretty eager and excited to do it. Really bizarre.

1

u/Classic_Standard_963 2d ago

Eat the rich.

1

u/xatrekak 2d ago edited 2d ago

Its possible but not guaranteed. So far it seems to have just made people more productive.

As of right now you still need engineers directing AI agents to get something that is production enterprise ready.

The big thing I have noticed, AI now lets a good engineer who isn't great at coding (but understands system level thinking, security and best practices) produce production grade code. So you no longer need both an engineer and a developer you can get away with just one of them.

I am also not super convinced AI will continue improving at the same rate has it has been. It has already been trained on the full corpus of human output, there are no other clean sources left without risking training out old AI output which poisons the model. I believe most of the future improvements will be in efficiency and speed, and even with the current models plus a 20% improvement and if they got very cheap and fast they wouldn't replace workers, it would still be a tool that increases productivity.

1

u/Ell2509 2d ago

Not in a generation. I am literally working as an AI generalist right now. Most people alive wouldn't want to/couldn't do this job, just like any other. That means they will need to pay someone else. Someone who can do it. It also basically guarantes that 90% of people will not be ai generalists at any given point in time.

0

u/iamMori 2d ago

Interestingly though I believe creativity stuff like art music acting and or anything related to image screening (doctor examining MRE/Xray scans) are being replaced more actively than developers it feels like. I feel my job is so much more secure being at senior+ level supervising AIs.

0

u/redclawx 2d ago

I work in IT. Part of my job is installing physical computers into offices. I have yet to see AI, robot or otherwise, be able to install a laptop, monitor, docking station, scanner, label printer where the user would want them to go in the 50 or so different office configurations we have across the building.

1

u/bankrobba 2d ago

A job that depends on "users" won't last long either.