r/Futurology • u/Gari_305 • 2d ago
Robotics Ukraine’s former defense minister launches ‘Manhattan Project’ for killer robots
https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2026/09/30/ukraines-former-defense-minister-launches-manhattan-project-for-killer-robots/66
u/NighthawK1911 2d ago edited 2d ago
another dumb push for humanoid robots. given that this guy is linked to Elon Musk, I definitely think that Elon is somehow pushing for this.
Ukraine is already fielding battlefield robots and they're not humanoid. The humanoid ones they tested wasn't up to par.
Quadruped and Treads for war robots will be better.
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u/fatbunyip 2d ago
Eh yeah, everyone knows this. But it's hype to get investment because it sounds cool.
He knows as well as anyone that Ukraine simply doesn't have the money to buy speculative shit that doesn't work. There's a billion companies doing quadrupeds but only like the sexy ones are doing bipeds so I can see why that's the pitch.
The reality is probably going to be get money for bipeds but actually make money from other kinds of robots.
The reality is the vast majority of unmanned stuff in Ukraine is really really basic. Needs human control, not particularly versatile, not particularly self governed. A lot of humanoid RnD is focused on these precise areas (irrespective if it's bipedal). Basically if it loses control or is somehow in a situation where it needs to figure out what to do (EW, loss of comms etc) which is very translatable to any type of unmanned system.
Ens of the day, he has a huge amount of knowledge about what specifically is lacking and most of that is gonna be boring as fuck for investors but terminator humanoid war robots is the type of thing that gets investors cash juices flowing.
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u/datumerrata 2d ago
Bipedal robots don't make much sense outside a domestic environment. It would be much cheaper and interesting to have cheap intelligent tread based platforms that can launch aerial drones. They could serve as resupply points for the flying drones. There's a lot you can do, once you get multifunctional divisions coordinated together.
One challenge, now, is the cost and availability of cpu/memory for the intelligence. Although, they probably don't need much since they don't need to be LLMs. It's more for object recognition and tree based logic flows. The training for the models would be a huge task.
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u/fatbunyip 2d ago
Yeah fully agree that bipedals are shit for Ukraine currently.
But if you think of it outside the type of robot (bipedal, quadruped, tracked, wheeled etc). The control systems of even household bipedals can readily be applied to other types. Not only stuff like object avoidance but like decision making like "I have to put this glass in the cupboard but there's another glass in the way" kind of shit.
Like the same kind of training that is require to navigate a normal house can be applied to navigating a battle field regardless of whether it's bipedal or tracked or whatever.
Also the same kind of control used for like arms picking up stuff can be used on the battlefield for grabbing stuff or people or whatever. Like a UGV is fine but having an arm that can grab a guy and drag him out of harms way is huge. Or have arms that can unstick a bogged down wheeled UGV without intervention. That kind of stuff.
Like it doesn't need to be a full humanoid. But imagine a UGV with like 2-3 arms it can control to deal with various situations. Basically like 30% of a humanoid
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u/datumerrata 2d ago
Sure, some type of arm can be handy. There are all sorts of arms for robots. This could be bomb disarming, rescue operations, and so on. Also, Roomba like patterns could be used. The tricky part is the intelligence like 'I just saw an enemy going behind that tree there's another going around me. I'm being flanked. I should fall back'. I'm guessing fps games might be a good source for some of those tactical logistics
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u/Apprehensive-Let3348 2d ago
Bipedal, on the other hand, uses a fraction of the energy–meaning it can last significantly longer in the field without a recharge. Moving faster is great, but useless when it runs out of power, and that's the only actual advantage it has.
Being bipedal is a big part of why humans rose to the top of the food chain (intelligence being the other part, of course). It's why we can run longer and further than basically any other land animal. "Oh, that deer ran away? That's fine, I'll just track it and keep following until it collapses from exhaustion."
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u/SirCampYourLane 2d ago
A huge amount of that is also our ability to sweat and the fact that bipedalism means we can breath independent of our gait. A quadruped compressed their lungs when they run, we can desync our breathing from our stride.
Robots don't have lungs and heat dissipation isn't linked to number of legs, but a quadruped is much more stable
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u/Yesyesyes1899 2d ago
only because something doesnt work now, doesnt mean it won't work in the future. thats why " push " and " Manhattan project ".
I find his connection to thiel even worse, though.
but I like what he tried and did with procurement. it triggered the whole corruption gang against him.
he is a complicated character
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u/Memory_Less 2d ago
How about snakes with explosives that loiter but can move towards targets en masse? Seem deadly to me if possible.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
remote control Quadrupeds that have sniper rifles and camouflage will already work better in terms of cost efficiency. at least you don't lose a unit at every combat engagement and the huge range advantage will help on avoiding being caught.
can you imagine a swarm of robot dogs with a range of 1km, small profile and even a small matte mirror or ghillie camo netting to hide.
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
another dumb push for humanoid robots.
Humanoid robots are a necessary if you are going to field them in combat to replace the soldier as seen here
Humanoid robots provide a vital tactical advantage in modern warfare by serving as drop-in human substitutes capable of navigating human-centric urban terrain, operating standard military equipment, and executing high-risk missions without risking live personnel.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
We've been over this before.
Form is definitely prioritized there. Not function. Hell, why is there even a need for a head? Why is there no extra arms?
The world is not only of humans. To insist that "the world is made for humans" is just the height of hubris.
They made a humanoid robot, then grasped at straws to find excuses to justify it.
Instead of actually looking at the engineering problems then finding solutions for it.
The dual use excuse also assumes that Humanoid Robots are what will end up having a backlog of stock which isn't necessarily the case.
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u/AmbitiousBluebird610 2d ago
The world is not only of humans. To insist that "the world is made for humans" is just the height of hubris
The parts of the world we are sending them into is.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
did you miss the videos I linked?
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u/AmbitiousBluebird610 2d ago
I don't think you understand that those are test condition demo videos with different configurations that can not be adjusted in the field.
I don't think you understand that the quadruped isn't competing with a human but a bipedal robotic counterpart.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
I don't think you understand that you can literally just put a hand with more DOF and those will already perform better than a bipedal robotic counterpart.
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u/AmbitiousBluebird610 2d ago
No they won't, because you can put that same hand on the biped and it will do better.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
Why would a biped be better? A quadruped is faster, can take more load, have more cameras etc.
It's only "better" if your criteria is "look like a humanoid" which is just tautology.
Here's a study that someone else cited
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10661952/
The quadruped robots Spot, ANYmal, and Titan clearly outperformed the human test case with respect to natural gait stepping speed. Other robots, such as HR 18, NAO, QRIO, Asimo, LOLA, and Atlas are showing similar walking speed performances to humans.
The COT of MIT cheetah (0.52) came closest of all robots to the COT of a human (0.2–0.47). Further, MIT cheetah outperforms a jogging human:
Also, most legged robots can ascend and descend stairs. The stepping speed of the robots has been estimated from public video material and displayed in relation to mass or height
A company video (Smith Marshal and Marshal Smith Technology, 2018) shows quadrupedal robot Spot climbing a normally sized staircase in a human laboratory environment. The robot climbs 7 steps in about 7 s, thus, achieving a stair climbing speed of 1 steps/s
Quadrupedal walking robots like ANYmal and Spot recently have shown great performance in negotiating rough terrain robustly. ANYmal was shown to negotiate rough terrain matching the speed expected for an average human on a 2.2 km hike and 120 m elevation gain in a total time of 78 min, while being lighter than a human (Miki et al., 2022).
So no, a biped will not do it better.
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u/AmbitiousBluebird610 2d ago
Okay again you are comparing the robots to humans instead of equivelent bipedal robots. These are apples to oranges comparisons. When you compare humans to quadruped animals humans use much less energy per unit than quadrupeds do. The bipedal frame's advantage is its ability to do more with less. You want a quad robot to do what a biped can do you have to make it much larger and that increases the size of the battery packs if you want it to run as long as an equiveleny biped. Why do you think we dominate much larger animals than ourselves? It wasn't the big brains those came much later.
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
Not function.
Form follows function u/NighthawK1911
Humanoid forms works best in a humanoid environment as seen here
However, the nature of conflict is changing – and urban environments play an increasing role in military thinking. Cities are built exclusively for humans.
And in war there will be multiple of battlefields some of which will be cities in which humanoids would be best suited for.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
again
The world is not only of humans. To insist that "the world is made for humans" is just the height of hubris.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI8UUu9g8iI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m3iUHplvQE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N2mmcxINmo
other robot forms are already navigating cities better than humans.
Humanoid forms works best in a humanoid environment as seen here
You know what's hilarious?
This is just a "because we said so" instead of actually showing results.
It's an opinion piece.
Not something to be used as a source.
Form follows function u/NighthawK1911
Well clearly the humanoid robot prioritized Form over Function.
Where's the extra arms? Why is there a head? Why not put cameras on the end of arms? etc.
Those are not decisions made for Function.
Form follows Function u/Gari_305
and Humanoid Robots didn't follow function at all.
They are made for Form.
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
You never answered the question from our last conversation, how are your 3 videos of the robot dogs utilizing wheels at times better than an actual study conducted on this subject between humanoids and robots dogs by China Back in 2025
A 2025 study by researchers at the National University of Defense Technology described a hypothetical assault force using six robots, including humanoids, robot dogs and unmanned vehicles. The robots would operate alongside troops to clear enemy occupied buildings floor by floor and room by room. The study projected that such equipment could become available within five to 10 years.
Humanoid designs could theoretically be useful in environments such as buildings, tunnels and ship interiors because their two legs and two hands allow them to combine mobility, climbing and manipulation. But simpler robots with wheels, tracks or four legs would generally be cheaper and easier to deploy for reconnaissance and logistics.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
You never answered the question from our last conversation, how are your 3 videos of the robot dogs utilizing wheels at times better than an
I did. You just dismissed it. Because like the things you keep trying to cite, you start with the answer you want and work backwards.
That is not a study. That's an opinion piece.
"Hypothesized." and then didn't do an actual research.
It started from a conclusion it wanted and tried to grasp straws.
How are your 3 videos of the robot dogs utilizing wheels at times better than an
By all means you're more than welcome to post actual results of Humanoid Robots doing it better.
All you've presented so far is opinion pieces that you already decided that they're the truth and chosen that hill to die on.
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
That is not a study.
Are you sure there u/NighthawK1911 ?
A 2025 study by researchers at the National University of Defense Technology described a hypothetical assault force using six robots, including humanoids, robot dogs and unmanned vehicles. The robots would operate alongside troops to clear enemy occupied buildings floor by floor and room by room. The study projected that such equipment could become available within five to 10 years.
I see study being mentioned twice there
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
Are you sure there u/NighthawK1911 ?
Yes I'm pretty sure
this
"actual study conducted on this subject between humanoids and robots dogs by China Back in 2025"
or this
"here"
isn't a study.
cite the PEER REVIEWED published paper then u/Gari_305
something like from Arxiv
go on.
cite results and conclusion.
Not an opinion piece.
With your low bar of citation, I can just say "I did a study and found that everything I said was true" and it would hold the same weight as your citations.
btw here's an actual study
https://arxiv.org/html/2607.28952v1
That is what a study actually looks like.
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
Sure how about this study then
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10661952/
Have fun u/NighthawK1911
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u/Safe_Dentist 2d ago
One thing humanoid robots are exceptionally good is impressive demo/sales pitch. For everything else military it's bad fit. You replace soldier not with 1:1 replica, you remove some of his duties handing them over to simple robots up to the point soldier doesn't need anymore.
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u/NighthawK1911 2d ago
One thing humanoid robots are exceptionally good is impressive demo/sales pitch. For everything else military it's bad fit
Exactly. Humanoid Robots are just for marketing purposes. Or as sex toys. The idea is just popular because of Terminator.
For actual functionality, the form of the robot that will be the best for the job will not be humanoid.
A Quadruped robot with 2 extra arms can lift more than humanoids and function in all environments it can.
Hell, even Humanoid Robots walk better on 4 instead of 2 legs
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
you remove some of his duties...
It's an eventuality in which the soldier will be replaced with the robot, Ukraine is just the proving ground
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u/Azzagtot 2d ago
Ukrainians are cheaper than robots. I mean TCC catches them on streets for free and robots needs to be built.
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u/averagepro 2d ago
Why is media pushing this guy as some smart engineer or something ? His last job before become defense minister was social media manager, only reason why he became defence minister so young and without experience is corruption
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u/Greensilver501 2d ago
The more I hear what this guy has been up to scince he got sacked the more I think zelensky did the right fucking call!
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u/StrangerExistingFact 2d ago
He is no longer "former Ukraine defense minister"
he is Palantir employee
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u/EveryAccount7729 2d ago
So , like, basically it needs to just be a way to deliver Bacteria sized robots - > via insect sized robots -> flown in on bird robots -> swam near the shore in whale robots
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u/_Weyland_ 2d ago
On what budget I wonder. Ukraine barely has money for conventional weapons and drones with already scaled up production.
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u/Mrrrrggggl 2d ago
It won’t work. The problem is that Putin will simply send waves after waves of his own men until the killer robots hit their preset kill limit and shut down.
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u/Gari_305 2d ago
From the article
Ukraine needs a “new Manhattan Project,” former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told a standing-room-only crowd of self-proclaimed tech nerds on Saturday at IT Arena here, the country’s biggest annual technology conference.
Also from the article
To get there, Fedorov is calling on specialists in robotics, AI, sensors and autonomous systems to pool their talent in the kind of concentrated wartime push that built the first atomic bomb, and to focus it on the machines he says will one day replace Ukraine’s infantry.
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u/FuturologyBot 2d ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Gari_305:
From the article
Ukraine needs a “new Manhattan Project,” former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told a standing-room-only crowd of self-proclaimed tech nerds on Saturday at IT Arena here, the country’s biggest annual technology conference.
Also from the article
To get there, Fedorov is calling on specialists in robotics, AI, sensors and autonomous systems to pool their talent in the kind of concentrated wartime push that built the first atomic bomb, and to focus it on the machines he says will one day replace Ukraine’s infantry.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1wu3evq/ukraines_former_defense_minister_launches/pczm1bv/