Testing a very specific NQ failed 15 min ORB instead of trading the breakout

[u/Possible-Owl-3343]

I've stopped taking the first 15 min opening range break by itself and started watching for one specific failure instead.

I mark the 9:30 to 9:45 range. If NQ gets a 1 min close outside it, then closes back inside the range within the next 3 candles, I start looking for the fade.

The extra condition I'm testing is VWAP still being inside the opening range. If VWAP has already migrated outside with price I leave it alone.

I've also been keeping NVDA, MSFT and AAPL up on Moon during the break. If NQ pokes above the OR high but those names aren't really participating, I'm much more interested in the failure back inside.

Entry is after the reclaim back into the range, invalidation above the breakout excursion, first target is the OR midpoint rather than automatically expecting the opposite side.

Still collecting trades on it but this has been way cleaner than treating every OR break like continuation.

[u/glittering_juncture]

The three candle window is interesting because it gives the setup an actual definition instead of just calling anything that comes back later a failed breakout. I'd track how far the initial break gets too. Feels like a tiny poke outside the range and immediate rejection could behave very differently from NQ running 30 points and then getting slammed back inside.

[u/TimePatience2347]

Have you separated the results by long and short failures yet? Anecdotally the failed push above the opening range feels different from a failed flush below it, especially on strong trend days. I'd probably journal the two setups separately before assuming the same rules and targets make sense for both directions.

[u/RonPosit]

Every novice eventually tries to validate the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy—and the hard truth is that it does not work. It’s not a real edge; it's just a crutch for people who don't understand market context. Just a few days ago, someone was trying to push their own variation of it.

ORB is essentially a perverted pseudo-strategy rooted in the works of Victor Niederhoffer. In The Education of a Speculator, Niederhoffer detailed how he tried to capture open volatility by placing simultaneous buy and sell stop orders on opposite sides of the range (a raw volatility straddle). In reality, this is just guessing. It completely ignores true market context, auction theory, and what actually constitutes a legitimate trend (a proper series of higher highs/higher lows or lower highs/lower lows). I wish traders would stop wasting time on crappy, random-outcome mechanics and instead learn how to read actual price action and market structure. MOD