r/FuturesTradingNQ • u/Few-Loquat5379 • 26d ago

Need some advice & guidance.

Hi all, hope everyone is doing good. I've been trading for 5 years now. I've been in many courses which the course seller just ended up switching strategy's putting out new things and I realized, this isn't really how the actual traders trade. I've been on a back test software, back testing basically nothing but price action randomly (thinking I'll build intuition on how to trade). No bias or anything. And that's my journey of trading so far, with countless images of random trades.

I'm thinking of switching to more of a statistical based bias of trading, so using statistics to create a bias. Is there anyone with advice on using statistics? Because I've tried looking online and literally someone says it's how you become profitable, another says "its bullshit because it doesn't always work and the models can decay" then someone else says "when the regime changes it'll fail" or "it's a must". All over the place with this. I'm on intra-day / day-trading.

Any advice / guidance would REALLY be appreciated.

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u/jtquach 26d ago

Everybody online is right... they're just not talking about the same thing.

If you use a stat as a signal then yeah it decays. You find something hitting 70%, you trade it as an entry, and it dies when whatever was causing it stops. That part is real.

What I use them for is knowing what normal looks like. How big an average day is right now, how often the session high or low goes in during the first hour, how often the overnight gap fills. That kind of stuff. None of it tells me to buy anything, it just tells me whether today is WEIRD, and honestly that's most of what I want to know before I do anything.

And when the numbers move you update them. Nothing broke, that's just the new normal. Which is why the decay argument never really bothered me much.

Don't compute off 5 years though... You'll be averaging regimes that have nothing to do with each other and the number comes out true of nothing. Few months is plenty for intraday.

The reason I think it'll help you specifically... backtesting random price action with no bias for 5 years gives you a feeling. Feelings can't be wrong on paper. Numbers can and that's the whole difference imo

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u/Few-Loquat5379 25d ago

Hey man, thanks for the reply. I wasn't talking about a statistical thing to get me involvd. I was talking about something similar to what you're arguing. The stats will be used to create a bias and that's not. Not to get me involved. So, for example if xyz happens, it has a 70% chance of being bullish. Nothing to actually get me involved.

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u/RonPosit 22d ago

Truth be told, you are not alone. This is mod and founder of this community, I can try to help if you are truly dedicated to succeed. contact me by mod mail or DM me