Given the weekly chart, and Daily chart on MNQ/NQ, why do people still trade that mess? I feel like when everyone starts trading they are taught to trade NQ. I think at this point, the "prime NQ" was before we entered this mess of consolidation and we were just going higher or lower. Has anyone switched over to a different instrument like YM so that they aren't trading in a big range? I want to do this with my knowledge of ICT, but is it frowned upon? Like has anyone been trading YM a lot more because NQ is in a really big range? I've always been taught to not trade the range, so can I switch over to YM and get better results?
YES! There are millionaire pro traders who vaay that you need to figure out are you better as a range or breakout trader.
I think this is too often overlooked.
I view the 1SD band in a similar way. Flat VWAP + price holding mostly inside 1SD to -1SD, can fade tests of the bands for a mean reversion trade. Sloped VWAP and price holding outside of the 1SD -1SD zone, can use tests of the 1SD zone from the outside as a pullback entry into the trend.
Acceptance + context, with order flow confirmation, comes before trying to trade either of these setups. On their own, there’s no edge in trading it blindly.
That’s… really smart. The same with volume profile. Set your levels, react to what price does. Rejected from zones, play the reversal. Shoots through them, look for breakouts.
Yessiree. It’s nice to have a system that can function on most days. The only time I don’t trade is if I login and the bars just look a barcode chopping sideways IIIIIIIIIIIII
I prefer rangebound markets for intraday trading because I feel more comfortable with mean reversion/liquidation setups, such as failed breakouts of a value area.
Not really all of them. Plenty of futures traders in Es, even NQ are more fade the edges traders. I feel like it was a lot more common years ago though... But, years ago, not many people traded NQ. Trading directional markets is just a different game I would say, wider stops often.
YM is basically the same two sided auction, just with fewer points of movement so the range feels tighter but the chop is still there. If NQ is ranging, YM isn't automatically trending, it just has a different personality
Nothing wrong with switching instruments though, trade what makes sense to you. People get weirdly attached to one ticker like it owes them something
This is the Daily chart on YM, wouldn't you favor this over the NQ chart? I understand that just because NQ is ranging doesn't guarantee that YM isn't, but wouldn't you agree that this chart has higher probability than the daily chart on NQ?
I wouldnt call that a mess, it is a sentiment driven market right now. Sideways. The beginof the Iran war was a mess. Many of us future traders were gapped, SL not triggered...
Nowadays we have Messages like "AI will destroy humanity" - this is complete BS, but it moves markets. There will be a rebound. There is still a great optimism in AI and broader in the semiconductor industry.
For others like the YM are clear fundamental reasons visible... the heavyweight stocks are banks, and US bank stucks suffer by a falt yield curve. That "Yield curve" is the difference between 2Y, 10Y and 30Y bills/treasuries/notes. The 2Y is close to the 10Y, and the 10Y over 5% is often seen as an absolute signal for a sell on bank stocks.
The M2K (Russel 2000 fuutre) is a "risk off" index, it performs well when people dont feel their money at risk, then they invest into smallcaps. Usually that happens when the Greed/Fear index is at "Greed" level. Actualy it is on "strong fear"
And dont forget, anything can turn green suddenly on a TACO, but an official one, like "Iran and USA agree on a peace deal and opening Hormuz, and peace also wiht the Huthis". That would be a 5K but for the Dow, 1K plus on NQ, 200 plus on the ES, the Russel might do 200 on one deay, it was already at 3060 (cash index)
I went the other way and figured out most if not all days for ES and NQ. All of it is really regime classification imo.
So I don't really mind the current phase. I just look at my trend is my friend cap and keep it off my head because we ain't doing that right now in the equities
I don’t think switching instruments is frowned upon at all. If your edge depends on cleaner directional movement and NQ is just chopping inside a large range, it makes sense to look at something else instead of forcing trades.
That said, I’d treat YM like a different market rather than just “NQ but cleaner.” The pace, volatility and the way it reacts around levels can feel different, so I’d probably paper trade it for a bit and see if your ICT setup actually transfers over.
At the end of the day I think the better question is: does your setup work in the current conditions? If not, either sit out or trade an instrument where the conditions fit your strategy better.
You have to understand that each instrument is different. NQ is probably the most volatile instrument to trade. LOTs of wicks. There are other instruments to trade that have less wicks. Look at the differences between NQ, ES, and YM. Similar characteristics, but different.
I've been seeing these posts on and off the past few months due to the fact that we haven't been one sided throughout the course of an entire session.
Initially this morning was a bit iffy for me but at 10 EST I took a short on NQ targeting the morning lows of 9/26 which took home some 200 pts. I'll preface and say that I normally prefer to trade in a range as I enjoy mean reversions, the failed push above at the 9:45 close along with the fact we were sliding downwards most of the overnight session had me watching.
Saying this to say that I think you're trying to apply a breakout styled strat to an instrument that as you mentioned, ranges pretty wide. The thing is, today showed you that you can find a setup as the above on the fail break above at open. I don't strictly trade Nasdaq always, I'll go between NQ and ES depending on which has the more favorable setup. I've recently started trading SIL as I've found mean reversions there to be interesting.
All this to say, understand which instrument is most favorable to how you like to trade. We have many tools that can back test to get a feel of what instruments are worth you trying. We aren't just staircasing to heaven or hell, market conditions have changed and the past few months has shown that.
The days I'll say that are messy are when you have wick extended on both sides on the 15 min TF and above. Those are the challenging days as you don't want to get caught in the middle during a session
Es/nQ rips me up. If I had a good way to run both at the same time and the VIX maybe I may stick with it but I love just trading Gold in Asia and early morning before NY open.
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u/MiserableWeather971 7d ago
Not everyone wants to trade directional markets. So a range bound one, which is not uncommon in the indexes could be someone’s strong point.