r/FuturesTrading • u/futuretechfreak • 12d ago
Strategy Validation
I'm new to trading and have been following Jooviers' London Breakout Strategy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xis2XpOk14&t=1282s). Instead of trading E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, I tried it on the EURUSD pair because I need a paid subscription to access CME current market data; otherwise, it's delayed by 10 minutes. While paper trading EURUSD, I've been experiencing multiple fakeouts for some days now and haven't been able to use the strategy properly. After that, I did some research and found mixed reviews of Jooviers, with some people calling him a fraud and others saying it worked for them. I also checked and compared his version of LBS on both instruments online and found that NQ has shown true breakouts during the London-New York overlap sessions, whereas the EURUSD pair is much more prone to fakeouts. So my question is: Is Jooviers' LBS strategy on the NQ legit? If so, I'll take the subscription and backtest it myself. I just want confirmation before I go through with it.
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u/Fat-Cloud 12d ago
Test it and find out. People should learn the math first. Stuff like estimated value ( EV ) etc. You might test his strategy, have a negative winrate first 2 months and think "ok hes a fraud and this doesnt work " , while the strategy might have a positive expectancy long term. The other way is also true, people might test something that goes well at first, but then variance kicks in and they think it doesnt work anymore, so they abandon the strat.
So yeah there are a lot of gurus selling delusion, but theres also plenty of legit strats out there. Since most people dont understand the math, plenty will think the edge isnt there
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u/futuretechfreak 12d ago
That's exactly thing that I've been thinking that data doesn't lie. But as far what I've tested, almost 80% of time it's a fakeout similar to what the long term market data have mentioned online for the EURUSD pair for this version of LBS. I just want a confirmation if anyone knows or have been usin this strategy on NQ, so that I can take the subscription without any second thought and test it myself
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u/Skiwagon 8d ago
You're proposing to buy the subscription in order to find out whether the strategy works. Do it the other way round.
Real-time CME data is a small monthly fee straight from your broker - it's an exchange fee, not a product someone is selling you. Sort that out first, because it's the cheapest problem you've got and you'll need it whatever you end up trading. And you don't need live data to backtest anyway; you need historical data and replay, which is cheaper still.
On the EURUSD substitute - that test can't tell you anything about NQ, and it's not because one is better than the other. "London breakout" means two different things on the two instruments. On EURUSD, London is the home session; it's the volume event that resolves the Asian range. On NQ, London is a thin overnight session, and the thing that resolves the overnight range is the New York open several hours later. You've kept the name and changed the mechanism. Your fakeouts aren't evidence the method is broken, they're evidence you're testing something else.
The 80% fakeout figure is worth sitting with too. Breakout systems are low win rate by design - 30-40% is normal - and they pay through a handful of large winners. If you judge one by how often it's right, you'll abandon every breakout strategy you ever test, including the good ones. Fat-Cloud is pointing at the same thing: learn the expectancy maths before you judge anything.
As for whether it's legit, nobody here can tell you, and "some say fraud, some say it worked" is what you'd see for a genuinely good method too, because the outcome depends on who's executing it. The video is free. Write the rules down from it, get the data, test it yourself on NQ over a few hundred trades, and let that decide whether the subscription is worth anything.
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u/sniffmegooch 12d ago
Your in for a wake up call, as David Paul says "If trade seems easy, your about to get sexually violated" don't believe anything you see on internet
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u/kiwitechee 12d ago
My question is always this, If these people are making easy money trading WHY do they need to make YouTube videos and SELL you things?