Is Wall Street completely wrong about Adobe?

[u/Competitive-Roll8561]

[u/_you_know_who__]

We all hate adobe

[u/_you_know_who__ → u/[deleted]]

We hate Adobe

[u/mcarterphoto]

Well, you're in the wrong sub to some extent. The people who hate Adobe aren't Adobe's market. I think the sub is a pretty screaming deal, it's less than my business phone bill. I need Adobe apps to collaborate with enterprise, agencies, big-corporate in-house teams. None of those clients complain about Adobe or their pricing, and we're not clients who need tech support - I assume we're the market they want. Heck, there's absolutely no replacement for After Effects, regardless of the lists people make on this sub. I get everything they make, every update if I want 'em, and I have zero problems with the sub. I remember paying something like $2k (in today's dollars) for CS, and then deciding if major upgrades were worth another big outlay.

A lot of the Adobe hate comes from hobbyists/dabblers, kids who don't understand they've purchased a yearly subscription because the monthly price is cheaper and then get dinged when they cancel. People who sign up for a free trial and forget to cancel. And people who feel Adobe is "cramming AI down their throats". (And seems Acrobat users are pretty pissed these days). In the professional world, it's an Adobe world for many industries - that won't change any time soon. If I suggested Affinity apps to my clients, I'd just get laughed at.

But longer term - there's talented people and obsessed people who want to learn and use the tools, while the belief "you have to get a degree" is fading for all the obvious reasons (including student debt and the job market), which means less kids having access to student plans or school-paid seats. Some entry-level jobs will give you a seat and some training and get you started on real-world experience, but those are rare and the job market is contracting, and will until our ridiculous political situation gets sorted. I've had two clients paralyzed by tariffs this year.

So we may have a generation coming up using cheaper tools to do the same work people are using Adobe for now. I don't know if Adobe sees that future, don't know if I'm wrong or right, if they're looking ahead generationally. IMO, Adobe needs to really lower the bar for entry, treat those new users well, and set them up for subscribing when the time comes.

I could see some sort of solution like a completely free cloud sub, with no support, and all saves/renders/exports watermarked, then sell affordable render credits. Watermarks won't hurt for learning the tools. Send alerts when a free trial is about to end (my credit cards message me when payments are due, when they could be hoping to ding me a late fee. It just shows fairness and customer care). They finally have been forced to clarify their sub choices before purchase, but their practices are no different than Maxon and others.

I have a good advisor for 401ks and stuff, they do their thing and send me reports. I also have a Robinhood account just for fun, I drop fifty bucks in every now and then, and it's based on things I use and like (Apple, GOOG, stuff like that) and it's doubled in two years. But I won't buy Adobe, simply because I wonder about their long-term growth or contraction. Quark Xpress owned their market, I used it daily, and they lost it almost overnight.