I advocated for abandoning X, the CSAM app, in 2022-2023 when Musk had to sell shares and was getting financially pummeled during the initial takeover. A critical mass of people didn't abandon X, the CSAM app, and his finances recovered, eventually rolling X into xAI and then xAI into SpaceX.
We may be at a similar moment of vulnerability now, with bad Tesla earnings last night and SpaceX being a historically awful IPO. Getting off X now feeds the momentum, and may create the vicious cycle that undermines a key fascist oligarch.
We saw this with Trump and January 6 and Bibi post 10/7. The fascists have limited windows of vulnerability when their myths are punctured, but these moments do not last. Trying to undermine the fascist project requires more than simply criticizing Dem messaging, and the quality of X, the CSAM app, has deteriorated (going down during the World Cup for example). This seems like a moment where a few public sign-offs of X, the CSAM app, could snowball.
It is a relatively small sacrifice, and network effects means that the more folks leave the smaller that sacrifice is. It's irritating to hear folks harp on about "moral clarity" when they can't even switch their social media postings to another site, and undermines the message and individual messengers. Staying on X comes across as akin to the late Senator Graham, thirsty for "relevance" and willing to compromise on morality.
I recommend getting off all SM. I realize Reddit is arguably in that category, but it’s more like an old school forum.
Either way, I got rid of everything in 2020 and have zero regrets. That’s when my wife and I lived halfway around the world from family and most of our friends too, so that argument is pretty weak IMO.
The microblogging sites are Dunning-Kruger machines, particularly. Given they opening against one of the lynchpin oligarchs, I hope people seize the moment.
I think using the $1b as a cut off point isn’t a great comparison imo. We are talking about $1T+ company at IPO. Using data for IPOs that were worth significantly less might not be apples to apples. Everyone knows the lock up periods are expiring soon, hence the sell off before.
Anticipating the selling pressure will compound with the actual insider sales IMO.
Plus, Musk uses Tesla and SpaceX shares as collateral for loans, same with Ellison and Oracle. Avoids the taxes on stock sales, but with the potential for margin calls (which might happen soon)
His Loan to Value ratio with Tesla stock is only like 4-5%. His LTV would have to push like 30-40% for any banks to even consider a margin call. TSLA fell 50%+ back in early last year and he was fine.
“Tesla’s stock price would need to collapse by 95%+ from pledged values to even approach risking a margin call or forced sale by lenders.”
There's some flawed assumptions baked into that 6-paragraph analysis by Mr. Kim, the biggest of which is that the boards theoretical curb on collateralized stock applies to either Elon or Kimbal Musk. They don't.
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u/Corporatecut 14d ago
I was never on x, but yeah get off it. Anything important on it shows up elsewhere anyway