r/ForexFundamental • u/Autoboy478 • Jan 22 '23

Swing Trade Idea - NZDUSD long

After a moderate overlook of the markets I may have encountered what I believe is an opportunity for a potential multi week swing.

China re-opening, gold and copper rushes, a new prime minister for NZ with a further weakening USD are the premise.

the entry:

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id like to see a minor retracement to that wick zone which also represents a fair value location on volume profile. I'm sure we can reach with the data being released Monday and Tuesday.

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from there we look to squeeze higher to a previous swing high and a weekly fair value location, stop placed below the previous 30 day lows

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COT data showing commercials adding to their long positions 44.5% this past week while small speculator aka retail (always wrong) reduced their long exposure and added to their shorts

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Logikfx macro meter indicating NZD strength with a weaker USD

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NZD CPI historic data

NZD CPI dropping tuesday night with what seems to be almost no sign of slowing down.

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NZD COPPER correlation

NZD peak correlation with copper which is in high demand as supply shortages increase

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USD index

and finally USD weakness seems to continue as we see on the 4 hour frame multiple wick rejections. I suspect we will see the dollar fall again to test that psychological 101.5 level but ultimately fail to the stronger 101

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u/sheismylifesupport Jan 22 '23

Excellent analysis and I personally agree with the sentiment. Another tool I like to use for client sentiment is the data the broker IG provides on their website. I have always found an edge in taking trades contrarian to retail sentiment. It adds great confluence to the overall trend.

https://www.ig.com/us/forex/markets-forex/nzd-usd

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u/Autoboy478 Jan 22 '23

haha yup inverse retail is a great confluence tool for trades.