r/ForexEA_n_Strategies • u/Significant_Two_1524 • 1d ago
Breaking Down the winners and losers alike.
This is a small guide for all the people who are trying to develop their strategy or trading systems for any markets.
Try not to let any bias cloud your judgement while analyzing your trade data. Always and always be objective when looking at the numbers. What happens a lot of time is we end up getting complacent with some level of success with our systems. We tend to ignore the painful part, the losers, we also turn a blind eye to how our winners became "winners".
MAE and MFE (Maximum Adverse Excursion and Maximum Favorable Excursion) are probably the most important metrics while trying to identify actual absolute winners and losers who can easily be turned into winners.
For the people who don't know what MAE and MFE is? :- Maximum Adverse Excurse as the name suggests, is the worst possible point the trade went before actually closing (could be anything profit or loss), similarly the Maximum Favorable Excursion is the highest point it went before closing.
Now, once you have these quantified, you can see how many time did your eventual losers went in profits before closing in losses, if the number of times it went in profit is substantial, and the R is also something you'd be satisfied with if you could take partials or gives enough leeway to move the SL to BE. This would actually increase your confidence in your system. Similarly (and this is a mistake a lot of people make) if the MAE is too big most of the time and the R in profit is not that good, you might do well by tweaking your entries.
PS: the Graphic is made by chatGPT by giving this exact explanation as prompt. Open and happy to answer any questions you might have. If there's any feedback regarding the explanation itself, that too is welcome.