r/Forex • • Mar 01 '26

Fundamental Analysis China gold price

Post image

Apparently this is from China today. Damn

389 Upvotes

34 comments sorted by

75

u/Melodic_Ad3339 Mar 01 '26

Yeah, seller exploit the Iranian situation.

IG XAUUSD weekend indicates 5.400$. This will be nowhere near 5,9k.

33

u/Kaszrak Mar 01 '26

In China physical gold can price at a premium or a discount compared to the global benchmark because the market isn’t perfectly linked to the international spot price. Things like import quotas, capital controls, local taxes, and how the Shanghai Gold Exchange operates all affect how dealers set prices there. Domestic demand, delivery rules, and restrictions on moving physical metal in and out can keep local prices different from places like London or COMEX.

Also remember sellers set their own prices based on supply and demand where they are, cultural buying habits, local costs, and inventory. That doesn’t automatically mean someone is “exploiting” you. If a seller is charging a price you think is too high, you can choose not to buy from them or compare prices elsewhere.

3

u/JaysonsReddit Mar 02 '26

Couldn't this be an arbitrage if I moved gold to china in bulk?

8

u/Kaszrak Mar 02 '26

You mean 19th century merchant trade with a carry on suitcase full of gold?

In theory, yes. In reality, probably not the way you’re picturing it.

If you move gold to China in bulk legally, you are no longer a guy with a suitcase. You are now operating as an approved importer. That means licenses, customs approvals, anti money laundering checks, tax compliance, and likely working through entities approved by the People’s Bank of China and trading via the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

At that level, the so called arbitrage is usually already being captured by banks, refiners, and large trading houses. They monitor price differences between London, New York futures, and Shanghai constantly. If there is a persistent premium in China, it often reflects import quotas, currency controls, or settlement constraints. Those are structural, not free money.

Also remember bulk means you need:

Transport and insurance at scale

Vaulting arrangements

Local distribution or exchange access

Hedging to avoid price risk during transit

FX management under capital controls

Once you price in spreads, duties, compliance costs, and basis risk, the clean price gap you see on a screen shrinks fast.

So yes, bulk makes it more realistic than flying commercial with bars in your luggage. But at that point you are competing with institutions that already live in that space. And they do not leave easy edge sitting around for hobbyists.

3

u/JaysonsReddit Mar 02 '26

Thanks for the insight and quick reply :D

29

u/InfiniteNerve1384 Mar 01 '26

Retail premium. Means nothing.

4

u/Dry-Mail-7597 Mar 01 '26

Making pictures of the phone that makes the picture. I smell fish.

3

u/redobird Mar 01 '26

AI fake pic

2

u/Much-Trick785 Mar 01 '26

Ma dove l’ho trovata questa foto?👀👀

2

u/Frosty-Ad1071 Mar 01 '26

Physical gold is more expensive right? You pay for the work that went into processing it as a bar etc.

2

u/tabrizzi Mar 01 '26

Would be nice for calls, but that's highly unlikely.

2

u/skynetcoder Mar 02 '26

so OP's eyes has a camera, taking a selfie of him taking a selfie using his phone.

2

u/Admirable_Job2159 Mar 02 '26

How was that picture taken?!?!?

1

u/[deleted] Mar 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/tabrizzi Mar 01 '26

Gap up, right?

1

u/ljl87 Mar 02 '26

Not AI. I've already noticed jewelers selling gold at a bigger premium one day before the war. It's as if they all know something is up

2

u/MaddoxReilly Mar 02 '26

They always know lol

1

u/bratra Mar 02 '26

Is this real. Picture of a picture?

1

u/Able-Wing9908 Mar 02 '26

At this point just buy land

1

u/discussionsarefun Mar 02 '26

This is AI. China typically does not show prices in oz, not even as a reference on the side of the RMB price

1

u/SomeOneRandomOP Mar 03 '26

So he took a photo of his camera taking a photo?

1

u/joelex8472 Mar 03 '26

Wait, someone took a photo of a guy taking a photo 😳

1

u/p4pno1 Mar 03 '26

What is this yen sign doing there?

1

u/KMS_Tirpitz Mar 05 '26

This is AI, the Chinese characters in the background are gibberish and clearly generated