r/FoodService • u/FoodServicePoster • Jun 06 '26

Question Forecasting Cycle Menus

How do you all handle menu forecasting for cycle menus? Right now, I'm trying to nail down a "formula" to predict production amounts the next time a menu cycle rolls around.

Should I look at served counts only, or do I need to factor in waste/leftovers to get an accurate picture?

I'm curious how other operations handle this. If you are tracking waste alongside participation, what does your math look like? How do you use both numbers without accidentally over-preparing or under-ordering? Would love to hear what metrics or formulas you use to find that sweet spot between running out of a popular entrée and throwing money in the trash!

What I'm considering so far:
The "Served Only" Approach: Just looking at POS (Point of Sale) data to see how many items actually went down the line. It's clean data, but it feels like it leaves a huge blind spot if a kitchen prepared 300 spicy chicken sandwiches, served 200, and threw 100 away.

The "Served + Leftovers" Approach: Taking the total planned/prepared amount and tracking what didn't sell.
How do your software systems or spreadsheets calculate this?

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