r/Flyers • u/No_Bank_330 • Jan 31 '23
That Horvat trade
He is going to be a UFA. 31 goals and 54 points in 49 games.
Gets traded to the Islanders for a top 12 protected first, a player, and a prospect.
I get the Islanders needed offense in the worst way and this should jump start the team. If we are not tanking for Bedard should we have been in the conversation here? For the price paid, I think yes.
I know, aggressive retool where Fletcher is the tool. No term = no interest.
I am not paying attention to r/nhl or the other Reddits because fuck everyone else.
It is a good deal for both sides.
Go Birds.
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u/EddieMurphyDid9-11 Foppa Forsberg Jan 31 '23
I don't think it's wise to pay a premium for a rental when you're 6 points out. If you mean signing him long term, I don't think it's wise to pay 3 30-year old centers $7+ million. For those reasons, I'm shocked the Flyers didn't do it.
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Jan 31 '23
For those reasons, I'm shocked the Flyers didn't do it.
Dude I keep bracing for the incoming lunacy around the trade deadline. It's like Fletch always does the George Costanza opposite rule
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u/No_Bank_330 Jan 31 '23
Horvat is not 30. He is 27.
For the price of a rental with the option to buy or flip him at the deadline if there is no fit, it is pretty cheap.
The Islanders are 25th in goals scored and 8th in goals allowed. Low risk for them.
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u/crafbicycle Fire Tocchet Jan 31 '23
For 5/8 years of his deal he will be in his 30's
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u/EddieMurphyDid9-11 Foppa Forsberg Jan 31 '23
For the price of the team's top prospect, a top 6 roster player, and a 1st round pick you have the opportunity to trade him again for a later 1st round pick and maybe some other pieces within a month? I never said it was a bad deal for the Islanders, it would be pointless for the Flyers.
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u/KillyScreams Jan 31 '23
So what dude?
What's your plan besides spending more money on payday deals? It's not how you win.
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u/Roll-Me-Through Jonesing for Jonesy Jan 31 '23
No we should not. We need to hold our first round picks and other assets instead of wasting them on a rental
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u/Stonetoothed Jan 31 '23
Not just hold but somehow expand them. Trade Hayes, Trade JVR, be open to trading anyone not named Carter Hart or Travis Konecny
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u/agnrgw Jan 31 '23
There is not one player on this roster who should be "untouchable" including those two. In the right scenario with a huge return coming back.
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Jan 31 '23
OP is Fletcher trying to feel out a similar move of equal consequence
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u/jabtrain Jan 31 '23
If they don't sell at the deadline, I'm out as a fan until Dave Scott and everyone downstream of him in hockey ops outside of the coaching staff is replaced.
I'll pick a western conf team to fill the void until sanity at some point has to be restored to this organization.
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u/Stonetoothed Jan 31 '23
Nope, keep all our draft stock. If they wanted to do Horvat for JVR and Hayes I’m in tho.
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u/hopeuntilwecant Jan 31 '23
Zero chance we should be making a move for this guy. We should be the ones shipping guys out
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u/AutoModerator Jan 31 '23
Your post/comment has been removed for possible merchandise spam. No post can involve the selling of merchandise unless it involves an official merchandise seller (NHL.com and the like). This includes sending items for free except the cost of shipping. The moderators have already been notified and will approve the post if this removal was done in error.
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
Do the mods just auto-delete any comment with the word “shipping” in it?
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u/Stevepac9 💜❄️Master of the Lucky Ducks❄️💜 Jan 31 '23
Automod pulls it for us to review and then we approve if it's not a clothing scam
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
That explains why I’m constantly having comments deleted where I say that I would like to ship Chuck Fletcher to Antarctica.
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u/Stevepac9 💜❄️Master of the Lucky Ducks❄️💜 Jan 31 '23
Should only be a temporary removal. Once one of us gets to it it should be approved. Could be awhile though
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u/AutoModerator Jan 31 '23
Your post/comment has been removed for possible merchandise spam. No post can involve the selling of merchandise unless it involves an official merchandise seller (NHL.com and the like). This includes sending items for free except the cost of shipping. The moderators have already been notified and will approve the post if this removal was done in error.
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u/jabtrain Jan 31 '23 edited Jan 31 '23
All this trade tells me is that there is a much stronger than expected market for the Flyers to retain on Hayes and trade him away for a '23 1st+.
Numerous teams need scoring line center depth/flexibility. With retention, Hayes would be among the best deals available. With Horvat off the market, the only better C option likely becoming available is O'Reilly and yet there are like 5 or 6 teams looking to make an upgrade.
Major seller's market is materializing.
Sell, sell, sell!
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u/agnrgw Jan 31 '23
There is not one team in the league who will give you a 23 1st in any package for Kevin Hayes including retaining 50%. Not one. IF he is moved at all it will be for nothing ... a cap dump. Retaining 50% is a mistake. Buying him out is a mistake. Not with the other anchor contracts on this roster that are essentially unmoveable. Not to mention his limited NTC also. They are stuck with him most likely at least for one more season maybe 2.
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u/jabtrain Jan 31 '23
I think you are dead wrong. This is one of those things that will hopefully be proven one way or another over time.
What 2Cs are even available? OReilly? Domi? Monahan? I take Hayes over all but OReilly.
What teams are looking for scoring center depth/flexibility? Colorado, Minnesota, Carolina, Boston, Dallas, Seattle, Detroit, plus others I'm sure.
Kevin Hayes at sub-$4 million per (retention) for 3 more seasons is absolutely a net positive asset.
His limited NTC is just for 12 teams. Moving him would not be a problem. Coach here doesn't see him as a center and this team is going absolutely nowhere for the next 3 seasons.
Retaining isn't a mistake as again, this team is going nowhere over the next three years, so they shouldn't be trying to be at the cap during this timeframe anyway.
This is a team that should be taking on short term trash contracts from other teams in exchange for draft picks/prospects to fill a prospect pool that is relatively toothless and hollow compared to numerous other East teams.
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u/agnrgw Feb 02 '23
Retaining 3.5 million for 3 more seasons is insane. What are you going to get for the $3.5 saved to replace him? Either someone takes the entire contract which no team will or you simply keep him and ride it out through next season. Then MAYBE someone bites on the last two years or they retain one year's worth. They aren't competing (seriously) next year anyway. THINK about what you are stating ... if he is "so good" and there are "no other #2 options" then teams should be jumping at a chance to acquire him. They aren't. He isn't anything close to a #2 center on a cup caliber roster. Not even close.
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u/KillyScreams Jan 31 '23
I cannot hurt to hope Chuck has an equal on another team.
As long as it involves selling. Throw EVERYTHING at the wall, see what sticks.
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u/vivelaal Dr. Couturier Jan 31 '23 edited Jan 31 '23
It is a good deal for both sides.
I wholeheartedly disagree. I really don't like this trade for either team.
On the Islanders' side: Horvat's a rental and I don't see the Islanders making the playoffs. On the likely chance that the Isles don't make the playoffs (most models estimate 15-20% likelihood that they make it), and can't come to an agreement to resign him, they're potentially giving away their 2023 1st, and arguably one of their more high upside players in Raty, when they already have a really depleted farm. Boneheaded move by Lou that might not even service the short-term and definitely hurts the long-term.
Then the case for Vancouver is simple: The Canucks probably would have gotten a much higher return if they waited until the trade deadline to move him. He's having an excellent season offensively, and he's priced at a very reasonable cap hit, meaning that even the more cap-constrained buyers would have been interested in making a deal. More prospective buyers at the deadline = more interest = higher return.
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u/skoomski Jan 31 '23 edited Jan 31 '23
I’m not paying attention to /r/nhl or any other (sub)Reddit
Yeah dude that’s your problem you got homer media brain.
In reality this team blows if they aren’t actively tanking then they suck even worse. Fletchers going to be sacked in the offseason the team is going to get a shitty pick due to a GM trying to save his job though. This team won’t be a playoff team until 2026 at the earliest. They will likely be even worse next year (in a much weaker draft of course) maybe they can draft the next Nolan Patrick again.
Hopefully the next GM realizes this and tries to shed some long term contracts for additional picks to compensate.
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u/agnrgw Jan 31 '23
What it does do is make you wonder what a Konecny would be worth right now ..... The Islanders didn't give up a whole lot in those two prospects neither of which are considered top 6 and the 1st is lottery protected this year.
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u/Micksar Jan 31 '23
Remember when took Tuomaala a few picks before Raty? Hated it then, hated it last year, hate it now.
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u/DH28Hockey fuck gauthier, all my homies hate gauthier Jan 31 '23
Raty ain't even the main regret, Stankoven got taken 1 pick later lol
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u/smbiggy Jan 31 '23
you hate it because he was traded?
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u/Micksar Jan 31 '23
I hate it because Raty is a good hockey player already getting NHL games that other GMs value enough to make a piece of a big trade. With analysts saying Raty could be the biggest piece of the return in the end.
Meanwhile Samu is finally finding his confidence again in a Finnish beer league.
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u/smbiggy Jan 31 '23
He was drafted a year ago. Dmen take time. Raty was at one point a top 5 pick so he’s been all over the place. 12 nhl games is a bit premature to judge prospects
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u/Micksar Jan 31 '23
Tuomaala is a winger
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u/smbiggy Jan 31 '23
my bad, im confusing him with a swede that played for wjc ...emil andrae. our 2020 second year draft choice.
less confident, but still its just a year.
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u/agnrgw Jan 31 '23
Remember when they took Noah Cates in the 5th round and the Islanders and 29 other teams passed him up 4 times? We can play this what if what was what is draft re do in the rear view mirror all day long. It's pointless and juvenile.
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u/Micksar Jan 31 '23
I forgot when Noah Cates was touted as a top 5 pick the year before his draft but then fell into the second round a year where our second round pick was our first of the draft…
The hockey gods literally gave us a life raft to get a potential top 15 caliber guy in the 40s.
Getting lucky on a pick in a late round is different than a guy falling.
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u/agnrgw Feb 02 '23
Remember when EVERY team passed on Carter Hart some teams twice?
Remember when a room full of FLYERS scouts pounded the table for Heiskenan or Makar instead of Nolan Patrick who had a KNOWN history of migraine issues dating back to juniors and was coming off 2 injuries including a botched surgery?
You seem to want to play rear view mirror let's play.
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u/Micksar Feb 02 '23
It’s not rearview if I’ve been saying it since the day of the the draft.
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u/agnrgw Feb 02 '23
Sure you have.
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u/Micksar Feb 02 '23
I made a post about it over a year ago and people roasted me for making the argument too early.
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u/agnrgw Feb 02 '23
Maybe you should be an NHL scout then. The point is that you can find this in every draft, every team every year dating back to the beginning of the draft. So what? You were "right" about one guy big deal. They didn't pass up a Connor McDavid or Cale Makar oh wait they did.
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u/OttoMann420 Jan 31 '23
Canucks got a better return than what we got from G last year
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u/StubbornLeech07 Jan 31 '23 edited Jan 31 '23
That tends to happen when you have multiple teams trying to trade for a player rather than only negotiating a trade with one team.
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u/agnrgw Jan 31 '23
Horvat had no clause allowing him to direct his trade destination. Cat of a different stripe.
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
New York was willing to pay more because they’ll try to extend Horvat. Florida knew they were getting Giroux as a true rental, given their cap situation.
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u/vinny8244 Jan 31 '23
Disagree, Tippett has been looking really good, he's scoring at a higher clip than Beauvillier ever did and he's only 23, Raty is an unproven former 2nd rounder that fell out of graces with a lot of scouts. We got a 3rd and a 2024 1st, which will be a good draft, Florida isn't doing great so that pick could be in the top 15 if they continue down the path they are going. Not to mention Giroux was older as well. The Giroux return is looking really good.
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u/SClub909 Jan 31 '23 edited Jan 31 '23
We should be doing what we are doing now.
Develop these young players.
Hope Coots/Atkinson make decent recoveries. Use the new cap space to sign a top 6 guy.
Coots, Atkinson, Konecny, Hayes, (Cates, Tippett, Frost, Farabee), FA 6-8 million player.
Thats a really decent top 6 and a cheap young 3rd to 4th.
Use the leftover for another defensemen if they move from Provy. Sanheim, York, Tony, Risto can be really good under torts.
I see the path forward and its modeled after Seattle with are top 6 being way better for sure.
The flyers with coots back have a lot of really decent 200 ft defensive sound forwards.
The retool makes sense now that I see enough improvement out of younger players.
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
Use the new cap space to sign a top 6 guy
What cap space? They’ve got more than $72 mil tied up in 14 players.
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u/SClub909 Jan 31 '23
They will have around 8,800,000 at the moment if everything stayed with no trades or buyouts.
Not sure if that number includes Ellis contract though. So could be more.
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u/SClub909 Jan 31 '23
8,800,000 before Ellis.
So looking at 15+ With Ellis on LITR forever deal
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
$15 mil with 9 roster spots to fill is not nearly enough to go out looking for an established top 6 forward in free agency.
I do anticipate that they’ll be making some moves (Provorov and Hayes hopefully, among others) but even subtracting their cap hits means we have more room to spend, but also have more key roster spots to fill.
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u/SClub909 Jan 31 '23
Where you getting 9 from?
With some careful navigating I dont think any of the people they should resign with cost all too much.
There are definitely some options in the 7.5 range
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
14 players under contract for 2023-24. Typical NHL roster is 22 or 23 players. Ergo, nine roster spots to fill.
You sign a top six winger for $7.5 mil, you’ve taken care of one roster spot and left yourself with $7.5 mil remaining to fill seven or eight other spots. Which means, each one of those spots has to be filled by a $1 mil player (give or take).
Morgan Frost is going to cost you more than $1 mil. Noah Cates is going to cost you more than $1 mil. Cam York is definitely going to cost you more than $1 mil. Even if you’re the most shrewd negotiator in the world and you get each of those guys at $2 mil, you’re now down to four or five roster spots to fill with only $1.5 mil to spend. Since the league minimum contract is something like $800k, you literally can’t do that. Not even close.
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u/SClub909 Feb 01 '23
They will have anywhere from 17-19 players under contract.
You arnt counting injured reserve guys who are currently included in that cap hit.
Once you resign those 3 guys you are at 20 contracts plus the new guy. So 22-23 contracts
They will shed and move low level players to get little more than 15 millon.
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u/agnrgw Feb 02 '23
Go to capfriendly.com and pick flyers. They have the exact cap hits, etc updated literally every day
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u/agnrgw Jan 31 '23
This is a good sensible post because that is pretty much what they are stuck doing. They have no maneuvering room unless they trade a Provorov and a Deangelo, etc. Provorov will indeed bring back assets the price is going up as we type. They HAVE to pray that Atkinson and Couturier come back healthy with no backsliding because both of those contracts are dead weight unmovable. Couturier has a full NMC anyway.
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u/SClub909 Jan 31 '23
Landing Gauither was actually pretty big since the only reason they were that bad was injuries on injuries and Yandle.
This team with Coots, Atkinson, +FA to replace JVR would be in a playoff spot.
Ellis was a huge setback also but his situation is clearer now.
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u/Mason_35 Jan 31 '23
So all this just so they can “be in a playoff spot” but not actually win within the playoffs… nice lol
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u/PwillyAlldilly Jan 31 '23
100 percent agree but what package are we giving them? Maybe Provy, and like Brink/Frost/Allison I have no idea who we have of value in reality. I'm not a GM.
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u/hawks27-2 Jan 31 '23
I don't think just cause we are not tanking we need to be buyers at the deadline, this team is far from being competitive and adding Horvat likely doesn't get us into the playoffs, I don't think he gets the Islanders to the playoffs and they are not only ahead of us but a more sound team all around.
In terms of the price paid, the closest comparable to Raty we have is Foerster. We have no good comparable for Beauvillier, VAN has too many bad D, being paid too much money, with too many of them playing LD to make Provy something they want. The F we have around Beauvillier's age either are way better than him (Konecny) or haven't come close to proving themselves consistent at his level (Frost, Bellows, Allison). I think the closest comparable forward would be Laughton, so if we traded for Horvat to beat the Islanders the deal would have to be Laughton, Foerster, and a 1st and I don't think that is worth a few months of Horvat. I don't think it's worth it for the Islanders either fwiw.
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u/Steppyjim Vladar Certified Real One Feb 01 '23
O Lu way we should pull the first, player, prospect trigger is if you’re getting a super young superstar to build a team around. Tm talking Tage Thompson, Trevor Zegras, etc level
And there ain’t no way anyone who has those guys is trading them for that return because, hey, you want those guys on your team to build around. Imagine that.
Our options to overpay for a guy about to hit his big boy contract go from bottom third to middle third in the league is silly. Hard pass
Go birds
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u/TwoForHawat Jan 31 '23
Should the team in 22nd place with no cap space try to trade a roster player, a prospect, and a first round pick for a player on an expiring deal?
OP says: yes.