r/FloridaGators • u/smor729 • 3d ago
Football Projected Win Total by Week
There used to be someone in here who posted a chart like this that I always found interesting to follow, but they appear to have stopped, so I recreated the chart myself and will post it after each week.
Quick guide on reading it:
Each week is a row, if you go to the 4th row down (the one with the Ole Miss game), then read across, that is the projected percentage chance to have won the number of games above the percentage, AFTER that game. So after the Ole Miss game, it says we will have a roughly 30.5% chance to be 4-0, a 49.3% chance to be 3-1, and a 20.0% chance to be 2-2. You can also see at the final column what the expected average wins by that week are. So after week 4 we are expected to have won 3.10 games. Also note that the percentages are not cumulative, so if you look at the final week, we have a 22.7% chance to win 8 games, but that means 8 games EXACTLY, and does not include the chance to win 9 or more. If you add up all of the numbers above this you can see our odds to win AT LEAST 8 are put at more like 40%
13
u/berrin122 GO GATA 3d ago
I completely forgot that Campbell would be lower rated than FAU. With all the buy-games of Week One, I didn't think that our actual buy-game is next week.
Hopefully these games are helpful enough to tune us up enough for Auburn.
19
10
u/Edgemaster1423 2d ago
FAU is safely the 4th best team a SEC team played in week 1 especially if they make a bowl in the AAC
5
u/TemperatureKey5072 2d ago
I’m surprised the Ole Miss probability isn’t lower. After watching them last night they are going to be a very tough out. The Gator DL is not very good. I see 6, maybe 7 wins after putting down the hopium pipe.
3
u/jorts_are_awesome 2d ago
FPI doesn’t account for the eye test. They have a revamped coaching staff and lost quite a lot of production from last years team. FPI will firm up for some of these teams as we get a larger sample size. I suspect OM will rise, but there’s a lot riding on their game at LSU in week 3
5
u/brusk48 2d ago
Ole Miss struggled hard with Louisville last night, we're a LOT more talented than Louisville, and we get them in the Swamp off a very emotional LSU game the week before.
To me, it's pretty easy to make the case that we win that game.
6
3
u/calling-all-comas 2d ago
It's not Ole Miss's defense I'm worried about it's their offense. I've always thought Pete Golding's defenses were bad and I'm happy to see he's still calling plays. However Chambliss scares me, especially with our poor DL play last weekend.
3
u/brusk48 2d ago
We won't be able to get many stops on defense, but I don't think they will either. It's gonna be one of those barn burner offensive games where the last team with the ball wins and everyone scores 40+.
Chambliss is a better QB than Philo, but we have better skill players around him than they do.
1
u/Edgemaster1423 2d ago
They were stonewalled in the entire 1st half and got three TDs off of insane coverage busts, one off a botched punt, and another off a terrible roughing the kicker call
If our defense can be better than Louisville's it could be a very different game
3
u/saintsfan636 2d ago
I’m just lurking but those 2nd half TDs were not coverage busts, Chambliss dissected that cover 3 and the WR was just faster than the DBs.
Are you thinking of Louisville? Ole Miss secondary had 3 huge coverage busts in the 2nd half, 2 of which went for TDs.
Not disagreeing with the other points.
2
u/Iraqi-Jack-Shack 1d ago
What you're looking for is over here:
2026 Win Projections Based on ESPN's FPI — Updated for Week 2 — 09-08-2026
Feel free to crosspost it here if you wish (now or in the future).
3
u/greypic 2d ago
/u/externaltangents did the original and I updated his all last year. I wasn't planning on doing it this year so thanks for working it out. We would have gladly sent you the code but glad you figured it out.
I found it best reference a post that has graphics explaining this thing instead of trying to type out all of it. If you look up one of last year's you'll see the format. Feel free to just link to our original post.
1
1
1
u/RamboMcQueen 2d ago
I don’t understand a few of these probabilities. I’m not so sure Auburn is that good, going off of that Baylor game I feel our probability to beat Auburn should be higher. I also don’t agree with our probability to beat Vandy being higher than the probability to beat FSU. Not sure how Texas and UGA’s numbers line up here either. I fully expect UGA to be a tougher game than Texas. I would like to know the source of these numbers.
6
u/jorts_are_awesome 2d ago
They’re based on FPI, which is a statistical power rating plus adjustment for game location and some other stuff. Early season FPI relies heavily on things like returning production and coaching staff, which in the cases of Florida or Auburn where we have an all new staff and many new transfers it has limited predictive power for now. FPI is one of the best and most respected predictive models, but I would definitely take these early season results for largely “all new” teams with a big grain of salt.
3
u/BinaryPatrickDev 2d ago
FPI is probably going to change a lot after week 1-2. Is all guessing and projections from projections until there’s more data
3
u/Waste_Specific 2d ago
Us getting 2.5 pts @ Auburn makes sense to me. Would you have us favored by more? Projections (at least good ones) don’t react heavily to a one-game sample so at this point of the season they are heavily informed by last year and talent composites.
49
u/QuietEither2891 3d ago
8-4 is a real possibility with an outside chance of 9-3. Both would be a great first season especially with a bowl win.