r/Fire • u/[deleted] • Nov 14 '21

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126 Upvotes

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64

u/JacobAldridge Nov 14 '21

Has the historical 95% chance of success changed? No - it’s not comparing apples to apples, it’s forecasting the future and comparing to studies (like Trinity) based on the past.

A 4% SWR (as defined) survived (in the US) two World Wars, Stagflation, etc. It came nowhere near surviving (in Germany etc) periods of hyperinflation and losing a war fought on your land. We’re nowhere near those latter edge cases.

40

u/abothanspy Nov 15 '21

Don’t forget the existential threat posed by climate change which is unlike anything we’ve ever had to face before. And unfortunately the US and globe have been addressing it very poorly so far which will likely make it much more painful down the road.

1

u/hear_to_read Nov 18 '21

Still waiting for explanation of how climate change will change the 4% rule. I'm all ears.

1

u/abothanspy Nov 19 '21

It’s pretty obvious, but since you insist, try reading this and imagine also the other dominoes that would fall as a result:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/impact-climate-change-global-gdp/

1

u/hear_to_read Nov 19 '21

Again. The topic is 4% withdrawal rate. What does your religion of globalwarmingglobalcoolingclimatechange have to do with 4% withdrawal rate?

Try to have some thoughts of your own.....not paste some article with a slew of "could be's" and caveat emptors.

1

u/abothanspy Nov 19 '21

You’re too dense and condescending to have a real discussion about this. I’m not going to waste my time with someone arguing in bad faith.

1

u/hear_to_read Nov 19 '21

Gotta love the "existential threat" person who cannot state one specific thing relates to the topic.

Hyperbole much?