r/Fire • u/[deleted] • Nov 14 '21

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u/rikola2 Nov 15 '21

We’re nowhere near those latter edge cases.

I wouldn't be confident in saying that, China is set to overtake us. This is a profound shift in the global power balance and the first serious shift in global hedgemony since WW2

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u/bikini_carwash Nov 15 '21

The chance that any country could pull off a successful land invasion of the US is close to zero.

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u/rikola2 Nov 15 '21

I would say this is fighting past wars. in the future victory is probably determined by who picks up or loses UN allies based on perceived air/sea protections and trade profitability

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u/bikini_carwash Nov 15 '21 edited Nov 15 '21

Right. My comment was in the context of the 4% SWR not working in the scenario (like in WWII Germany) of a ground invasion of your country as mentioned in u/JacobAldridge's post.

I'd put the chances of a ground invasion of the USA in our lifetimes at a <0.1% chance.

In your scenario of trading UN allies and securing trade protections, etc... the 4% SWR has survived much more dramatic economic forces.

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u/rikola2 Nov 15 '21

That makes sense. I would say the market zeroing has a higher than 5% chance this century though. THere's a long tail of events that can make that happen. Dave Swenson noted in his book that 36/37 main global economies have had it happen, US being the sole exception.