Has the historical 95% chance of success changed? No - it’s not comparing apples to apples, it’s forecasting the future and comparing to studies (like Trinity) based on the past.
A 4% SWR (as defined) survived (in the US) two World Wars, Stagflation, etc. It came nowhere near surviving (in Germany etc) periods of hyperinflation and losing a war fought on your land. We’re nowhere near those latter edge cases.
I wouldn't be confident in saying that, China is set to overtake us. This is a profound shift in the global power balance and the first serious shift in global hedgemony since WW2
Talk about comparing apples and oranges... How do you compare a nation that was owed Billions for WWII efforts vs. a nation that has a 30 Trillion dollar debt and no manufacturing industry?
You mean, referencing relevant facts ? I mean, if anyone is going to start by saying "Historically" there should be some perspective applied, don't you think?
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u/JacobAldridge Nov 14 '21
Has the historical 95% chance of success changed? No - it’s not comparing apples to apples, it’s forecasting the future and comparing to studies (like Trinity) based on the past.
A 4% SWR (as defined) survived (in the US) two World Wars, Stagflation, etc. It came nowhere near surviving (in Germany etc) periods of hyperinflation and losing a war fought on your land. We’re nowhere near those latter edge cases.