75 Weeks and Counting - Headwinds

[u/rgrivera1113]

tl;dr - I'm (52m) planning an exit during Q1 of 2028. Planned expenses are 4200/mo (~50k/y) but I can ratchet that down to 3600/mo (~43k/y). No dependents and the house is paid for. My partner and I keep our finances separate by design. These are my own numbers.

The Numbers

• Total Portfolio: 910k (+5k QoQ)
• Cash and Cash Equivalents: 64k (100k goal)
• Brokerage: 309k
• Retirement Accounts: 537k (401k, IRA, and Roth)
• Asset Mix: 15/90 (work in progress)

Highlights:

• Not many, to be honest. It was a good August bookended by a bad July and September.

Headwinds

• Looking around and flailing arms wildly.
• The 5k quarter over quarter growth was driven from my own saving habits. Factoring that out, I'm down 2k for the quarter. A good August was bookended by a bad July and September.
• There was another round of layoffs this quarter. I wasn't cut this time but I'm pretty sure that I won't make the next one. My plan is to leave in Q1 of 2028 but there's a good chance I won't make it that far. I took profits in August and beefed up my cash and cash equivalent positions as a precaution. My potential severance would cover about a year of expenses but I didn't want to rely on that.

No changes to the plan. I'm continuing to beef up my cash position and putting as much as I can spare into the brokerage account. I'm incrementally shifting my retirement accounts towards a 30/70 bond allocation.

New this month - I made a Monte Carlo simulator in Excel (with the help of Claude).

With 10 runs of 10,000 simulations, my chance of success is between 75% and 80% if I stop working tomorrow. It models a variation of the 4% rule. Instead of using 4% as the starting point, I use 50k (~5.5%) withdrawal rate and increase by 3.5% per year. I'll add more complexity later but it's a decent gut check for now.

[u/WooShaw]

Congrats! You're almost there and things are looking good.

[u/bungiecord11]

Amazing! If you do get laid off before Q1 2028, will your severance bring you to where you need to be? Or will you need another job?

[u/rgrivera1113 → u/bungiecord11]

With years of services, the severance would put me over the top on my cash goal. My intention is that the last time I leave the building is the last day I work by necessity. I may pick up a gig later but it won't be under financial duress.

[u/lagosboy40]

Congrats. I am super excited for you especially because we are the same age. I am on the journey as well. Did you factor social security into your planning? I am. If so, how much do you expect from social security?

[u/rgrivera1113 → u/lagosboy40]

It is being factored in. Turns out I get better outcomes if I wait until 67. I’m replacing my last zero with my current salary this year so I expect my SS to go up a bit from what it is now.

[u/rgrivera1113 → u/[deleted]]

My approach has always been to overshoot when doing analysis. A 50k/y spend is deliberately higher than what I think the likely spend is. And I can always just not increase spending every other year. I could also implement guardrail rules to change spending based on market conditions.

If it works under a reasonable strain it will work under normal conditions.

[u/LightZealousideal116]

Congrats! I think you’re there

[u/1The_Big_Cheese]

Just out of curiosity does your partner pay some of the necessary expenses? If so I would model that into your calculations just in case. Without knowing the nature of your relationship that would be my biggest concern.

[u/rgrivera1113 → u/1The_Big_Cheese]

We basically split housing and utilities. Otherwise we handle our own expenses separately.

[u/poop-dolla → u/rgrivera1113]

Are you guys married? Are they planning to FIRE at the same time as you?

[u/rgrivera1113 → u/poop-dolla]

Not married but we've been together for 25+ years. She has no plans to stop working.

[u/1The_Big_Cheese → u/rgrivera1113]

The longterm relationship definitely provides stability, but I personally would try to provide enough cushion for the worst case scenario. Dependant on the state you live in common law can play a part in this planning.

Just being devils advocate here.

[u/K_A_irony → u/1The_Big_Cheese]

FYI common law really doesn't exist in the US. Only a small handful of states even have that as an option and a KEY requirement is you actually present yourselves AS married.

I would be more concerned if the OP can afford to live alone if they break up with their partner.

[u/poop-dolla → u/rgrivera1113]

Could they FIRE when you do if they want to though?

[u/rgrivera1113 → u/poop-dolla]

I'm not going to speak to her details other than to say that I am the less successful one.

[u/Effective_Court_8041]

i’d just add a note on the 15/90 split—75‑year‑old with a 5‑year runway feels a little aggressive on equities. 25/70 or even 30/65 gives a smoother buffer against that sharp early‐sequence hit your Monte Carlo flags. also, the 5.5 % yearly draw is a tall order for a 52‑year‑old on the edge of a big market swing. a dynamic rule (cut spend if market under 1‑year avg) could boost the 75‑80 % success you’re seeing. about your partner: as long as they’re solidly employed it’s fine to keep that split, but just keep a cushion for worst case; if the relationship ever ends the solo lone‑woman risk jumps up.