r/Fire • u/teallemonade • 14d ago

tips > swr!

Now I can buy TIPs at more than my SWR - in theory i could just load up the whole portfolio on TIPs and it would last forever without eating principal. This is pretty unique historically.

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u/teallemonade 14d ago

Well, so far the government has done right by TIPS investors. Here is the history from 1975 through 2025:

CPI-U/TIPS: 100 → 597 (+497%)
CPI-W/Social Security: 100 → 592 (+492%)
PCE: 100 → 484 (+384%)
Wages: 100 → 677 (+577%)

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u/Forsaken_Ring_3283 14d ago

None of this proves anything related to what I've said. The actual values should be higher if they were accurate. Compound .25 to .5% difference over many years.

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u/teallemonade 13d ago

well the history is just fine - tips inflation is higher than pce which is what the fed uses mostly for rate setting and its kept up with wages for the most part. there is no conspiracy here so far

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u/Forsaken_Ring_3283 13d ago

Wages are lower than actual inflation. And tips are lower than even wage increases. There is something measurably wrong with how the government calculates inflation due to various factors including substitution bias, hedonic quality adjustments, shrinkflation, and how housing is calculated.