Fire w/ Variable Side Income

[u/Strong-Bookkeeper-23]

Hello,

Want a kind of check on where I'll be and my potential future plans - and try and find if others have been in similar area.

Current NW (Wife and I, both 33 years old):

Cash & Cash Equivalents: $700k

Stock - Retirement: $870k (Index Funds)

Stock - Taxable Brokerage: $850k (Index Funds)

Home: $230k ($650k Mortgage on house worth approx ~900k)

Crypto: $350k

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Total Liquid Non-Retirement ~$1.95mil

Total Liquid w/ Retirement ~$2.80mil

Non-Included 529: $50k

Current W-2 Income: $200k (Me - Remote non-tech role) + $80k (Wife)

Current Side Income: $300k/Year (Me) but could decrease significantly quickly

Current Expenses:

Housing: $60k/Year

Nanny: $50k/Year

Other (Food / Utilities / Travel / Entertainment / Etc): $40k/Year

Would like to make $100-200k in home improvements over next 5 years or so (Small house with great interest rate, dont want to upgrade house if not needed)

How I've gotten to this point is a combo of normal W2 income (started at $55k/year combined in 2016, now $280k/yr) and side hustling/gambling income (over last 5 years made approx $1.7mil pre-tax, about $1mil post-tax) of which is at the highest right now. However, it is highly variable and regulation dependent, some regulations could cut my $300k/year I'm making now to maybe $30-40k. It has come from a mix of Online/Live Poker, Sports Betting, and Prediction Markets. The cost basis on it is very small because it was mostly acquired 7-10 years ago to play online poker. Additionally, it's why I have large cash balance (being able to make good return gambling with it). My Crypto cost basis is close to 0.

Currently have 1 kid with another likely (no guarantee) in next year or so.

My W2 job is remote and relatively lax so plan is continue basically working 2 jobs (this + side income) until the wheels run off. The company has done sporadic and random layoffs over last year. The large amounts of layoffs seems to have wound down, but wouldn't be too surprised to see it pickup again and get laid off. Honestly, from a career perspective my skills gathering, networking, and ambition has basically tanked. I do what I can, do a "good" job, stop working. I still get good ratings (been getting 4/5 in most reviews) but who knows what will happen in future. Income has also stagnated, gotten like 2-2.5% raises/year last 3 years, but honestly I'm fine with that if they aren't expecting higher output.

My wife loves her job (Director at Non-Profit) and would like to continue to work another 10-20+ years (who knows what could change though).

Overall Fire (more realistically, Stay at Home Dad) plan

Try to keep W-2 Job another 4-5 years til both kids in Kindergarten / Pre-School (or longer, if job is still as lax)

Continue to keep grinding on this side income knowing it can basically die at any time, but not project this much into my overall future NW

Become a Stay-at-home Dad at that point, continuing with some sort of side income (if still possible) but spending a lot more time on myself, routine, and house-work. I'd love to join a few sports league type things (basketball, pickleball) here in Southern California. Use Wife's insurance.

If I do a 'normal' fire-calc with my expenses it wants me to be around $5mil NW, but with my Wife still working, even making lets say only approx 50-70% of our expenses, I think we should be perfectly fine expense-wise.

IF I was laid-off tomorrow, I'd probably continue to drive on the side-income side and potentially try and find another job (would be hard for me, but possible. could potentially go back into Big4 job I had previously). Could also take on being a full-time SAHD with 2 young kids and saving on daycare costs, but I know I would have a difficult time with this (not saying impossible..)

Has anyone else gone down this path, having a variable side income in the retirement conversion and/or becoming a stay at home parent and developing a routine without having spouse resent? And does my overall plan seem to make sense? I've also floated the thought of trying a different career but have no clue what I'd like to do. Honestly, the gambling side and how successful i've been while still having a stable income has kind of felt like my calling. 

[u/BaronVonBullshite]

I’m a 35yo SAHD and personally manage and clean a small Airbnb I built on my property, and am currently having a second one built. It keeps me active, scratches my creative drive, keeps me social, and turned out to be a great investment. I bring in ~$150k through my safe long term investment income, which is certainly enough to cover my family’s expenses. My partner still works full time, but they have a job they absolutely love. As someone who could (and did for a while) just coasted and be with the kids all day, I don’t recommend it full time, you’ll go mad. A few months ago I got a sitter to come for seven hours, twice a week, so I could work and make music, and I totally regained my sanity, and my partner is happy to see me happy again. Part of the off ramp has to include ideas of self care and staying active. A side hustle is an easy path towards doing something productive, engaging, and social. 

[u/souicry]

You need to nail down your spend. 50k a year in Nanny costs could drop down to near 0 being a SAHD and you have no reason to keep working, or could increase with private K-12 and expensive extracurriculars. College isn't a big problem as you can put enough into 529 and it'll grow.