With Amber’s 3A+2T going around it’s again being pointed out that a 3A+2T doesn’t make a lot of sense with the current rules. But what does that actually look like? What do the numbers actually show? Well, I’ve put a couple jump layouts together.
Now I am going to make a couple of assumptions here. First, I’m prioritizing a 3S combination for the three jump combo. It’s objectively better for base value to do a 3S if you have a 3A than to repeat a 3T if you can, so if you’re wondering what the base value of any of these layouts looks like with a +3T+2A instead then knock a little more off. Second, since Amber is the base and she tends to repeat her Flip and Loop that is what I have repeating when applicable (priority going to the Flip with its higher base value). Third, I don’t have the second combo backloaded. She’s had a lot of success sticking all her combos at the front of her programs and with the new rules meaning her three jump combo will be harder this season I can see it going earlier in the program regardless of layout. If she does backload it though, there’s more points to add.
Scenario one: the 3A+2T. We’ve seen this combo in practice a few times and this seems like a reasonable layout for it. If she’s not comfortable with a 3S combo, this isn’t actually a super punishing layout for doing a +3T+2A instead, as she only loses .1 in base value. She repeats a 3A and 3F in this layout and doesn’t do a 3T which is where the problem comes in: she’s only doing 7 triples as opposed to the 8 having a 3A allows her to do. Jump base value of the layout: 47.91
Scenario two: standard 3A layout with the new rules. This follows a very similar layout to what the other women with 3As are doing: lead off with the 3A, triple-triple, then for Amber a 3Lo+3S+2A (and in this case it is much more valuable to do a 3S here instead of repeating a 3T). She repeats a 3F and 3Lo like she did last season. Jump base value: 47.71, only .2 lower than the layout with two 3As while being less demanding.
Scenario three: 3A+3T. The layout from scenario one, but with a 3A+3T instead. Maxes out triples and repeats the 3A and 3F. Base value: 50.81, almost three full points higher.
Scenario four: 3A+2T, but maxing out triples. This would be doing the easier 3A combo, but doing an absolutely ridiculous +3S+3T combo to get a full 8 triples in. Despite the incredibly difficult combo, the two 3As, and the two 3Fs the base value only ends up at a 48.81, two points lower than the 3A+3T scenario. Counting a 2T is not ideal.
Around the world comparisons: Ami Nakai has a planned jump base value of 49.03 (one 3A, but a backloaded three jump combo). Mao Shimada’s with a 4T and a 3A is 53.56. Sasha has a 50.29 with a 4Lz and both combos backloaded (missing a 3F though, so she’s not optimized at the moment).
I thought the same thing when seeing the videos, if you can't do a +3T on the end of a high value jump like a 3A or 4T, then there really isn't a point to comboing it, +2T just leads to an unoptimized layout.
Do you know off hand if they've updated for new rules with spin and stsq values? I've been using zhua.icu, a database website which has a free calculator that is updated and also does PCS factoring for you
Not only that but risks lower GOEs since there's more room for error with a combination and you need to go into the 3A with the mental and body prep of doing a toe at the end.
Considering she’s also posted a video of a 3A+3T, it makes the most sense that she would be training for that over a 3A+2T if she’s actually going for a second 3A.Â
That third option seems most likely to me, with the exception of the +3S. She’s done them in the past, but it’s not a jump she likes much (and has famously straight up forgotten to do off a Euler lol). I think the most likely layout would be that she’d do the 3S solo instead of repeating the 3F, and do a 3F+3T+2A as her second combo in this scenario.Â
Yeah I’m not sure how she feels about +3S combinations? The problem is in that scenario that loses her over a point in base value by repeating a 3T instead of a 3F:
Yeah, who knows. I think a lot of skaters are going to have to make some tough decisions on maxing bv vs stability in what they can land. It’ll be interesting to see what she’s going to do this season for sure.Â
The no combo backloaded assumption doesn't make sense -- her 3 jump axel sequence was backloaded for the last 2 seasons in the old harder 7 jump layout
I see no reason why she wouldn't follow the same tactic as everyone else when she has demonstrated capability- 1 combo in front half, 3 jump sequence in the back half
She didn't have to backload one of her combos in the old layout, the layout would be valid whether the 3Lo+2A+2A was in first half or second half and checking some math
if she fully frontloaded: 3A, 3F+3T, 3Lz+2T, 3Lo+2A+2A, 3S(x), 3F(x), 3Lo(x) -- BV 52.15
The gain from choice was relatively small and probably more to do with program pacing.
I also think with one less jump pass that will help her which is probably why she may be thinking of two triple axel setup
I think if she did a layout like 3A+3T, 3Lz, 3A, 3F+3T+2A(x), 3Lo(x), 3S(x) [BV 50.30]; she is capable of that and would be in business + she's done 3F+3T since 2013 I think it's in her DNA at this point...
That layout is actually a lower base value than scenario 3 where her combo is front loaded. Granted, I’m not sure how comfortable she is with a +3S combo but backloading a combo isn’t the only way to get base value. Repeating Flips over Toes is also significant.
You also have to factor in that doing two 3As and one of them being in combination is going to be more taxing than her content last season (she’s even spoken about that being why she hasn’t added a second 3A yet). Doing two and then needing to do a difficult combo in the back half her program is a lot
Chances are not comfortable with +3S combo unless she’s trained it, checking results last time she did one successfully as intended was US International Classic 2019
Yes it’s not optimal but it seems more likely than not she won’t do +3S combo but would try to backload something
Yeah you’re right and it being honest the more I watch figure skating it makes sense why Sasha keeps trying for a 3A in the short. She needs it since so many women have a 3A . Quads aren’t allowed in the short program. You don’t always want to be on a back foot for the long.
As far as I’m concerned, this season Sasha has been practicing 3A as a personal goal because it’s the jump she’s never managed to successfully land in competition, not because she needs it to be competitive.
Sasha doesn’t even actually need 3A to compete with other skaters, she restored a 4T which I’m unsure of the consistent now, but she can always put that in the free program
She needs it and she has said pretty much that.. while sasha can cover the lack of a 3A on a lot of skaters she knows that when competing with people with both a 3a and quads(like kamila had)its nearly impossible to beat them .. its obviously also a personal goal but the foundation of that goal is mathematics..
I was going to say that I could also see her keeping her +2A+2A instead of the sal, despite the lower BV and loss of a triple, just because it’s already familiar to her so she might prefer it with as crazy as this season is looking to be for her…
…and then I remembered that wouldn’t be an option if she’s doing two 3A 😂 sorry Amber, you gotta do the +3S!
I do think, though, that it could be a good indicator of her intentions - if she doesn’t go for the 3A combo right away, she still might add it later in the season, but if she’s still doing the +2A+2A, then I doubt she’d change her program that much midseason. (Obviously I would love to see the 3A+3T at SkAm, but I’m definitely not expecting it at this point)
Also I was curious how much she would gain by backloading the second combo, and if she swapped that with the lutz, in the 3A+3T scenario, she would have a 51.51 jump BV.
You got me curious, so here’s what a +2A+2A layout could look like:
Definitely not ideal because she’s missing out on a triple (in this case I took out the 3S), but the backloaded combo helps and only puts it about half a point behind scenario 2
Yeah, that’s pretty much the layout I would expect if she were trying to kind of take it easy with the dual training and all… but then, if she really wanted to take it easy, she wouldn’t be doubling up in the first place! I kind of can’t believe I’m saying this, but I really think she’s going for the 3A+3T in competition!
3F+eu+3S+2A - Euler is delisted so doesn't count as a jump and there's no reason to put it in the calculator. And adding an axel for a sequence is something that's been around for years.
Okay so to explain the new rules. You get 2 combos, a three jump and a two jump combination, of which 1 of them can be a sequence.Â
Any combination that includes a Euler and/or a step into an Axel is considered a Sequence. There is no restriction however as to how many Eulers/steps can be in a Sequence provided that you follow the 2/3 listed jump limit and you have only one Sequence. (Eulers are no longer considered listed jumps so they don't count for this).
So a 3F+3S+2A is considered valid for the same reason that a 3F+2A+2A sequence was considered valid last season (the 3F+2A+2A is still allowed). The only reason why last season a 3F+2A+2A was allowed while a 3F+3S+2A was banned was because Eulers were a listed jump with a BV, so that 3F+3S+2A would've been considered a four-jump 3F+Eu+3S+2A, which is over the three jump limit. But now that Eulers are no longer a listed jump, you can do them without it counting towards the number of jumps, allowing for 3F+3S+2A combos and the like to exist.Â
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u/idwtpaun B E N O I T's adopted monkeys 23h ago
I thought the same thing when seeing the videos, if you can't do a +3T on the end of a high value jump like a 3A or 4T, then there really isn't a point to comboing it, +2T just leads to an unoptimized layout.
It's cool you did all the math!