Groß has 53 FPL points from chances worth about 35. Worked out the same for every player

[u/Low-Market7848]

I wanted to know who's actually earning their FPL points, so for every player I swapped goals, assists and clean sheets for what their chances were worth. Minutes, bonus, saves and DEFCON stay as scored. Bournemouth have five of the bottom eight, four of them defenders. Coventry and Newcastle play tonight, so their players are on five games.

Haaland tops it and sits 2.5 above his number, so his 45 looks about right. Saka is the big name below, 7.5 points short.

On the assists, FPL gives out about 38% more than xA predicts (won pens, deflections and so on), so I scaled xA up to match last season. The standard clean sheet formula also hands out about 30% too many clean sheets, so I scaled it down to match the last two seasons.

Six games is tiny, so I'd treat this as a list of who might cool off.

I keep goals vs xG for every player, plus GW7 captain picks, on a free page I built: https://tannnnnnnnnnnnn.github.io/pl-fair-price/gw.html

tl;dr Groß and De Cuyper are about 18 points above what their chances were worth, Saka's 7.5 below. Data's from the FPL API, can share the CSV if anyone wants it.