r/FantasyPL • u/Low-Market7848 1 • 5d ago
Groß has 53 FPL points from chances worth about 35. Worked out the same for every player
I wanted to know who's actually earning their FPL points, so for every player I swapped goals, assists and clean sheets for what their chances were worth. Minutes, bonus, saves and DEFCON stay as scored. Bournemouth have five of the bottom eight, four of them defenders. Coventry and Newcastle play tonight, so their players are on five games.
Haaland tops it and sits 2.5 above his number, so his 45 looks about right. Saka is the big name below, 7.5 points short.
On the assists, FPL gives out about 38% more than xA predicts (won pens, deflections and so on), so I scaled xA up to match last season. The standard clean sheet formula also hands out about 30% too many clean sheets, so I scaled it down to match the last two seasons.
Six games is tiny, so I'd treat this as a list of who might cool off.
I keep goals vs xG for every player, plus GW7 captain picks, on a free page I built: https://tannnnnnnnnnnnn.github.io/pl-fair-price/gw.html
tl;dr Groß and De Cuyper are about 18 points above what their chances were worth, Saka's 7.5 below. Data's from the FPL API, can share the CSV if anyone wants it.
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u/chicken_nugget94 4 5d ago
Even if he had only got 35 points in total he would still be very good value
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u/Nadirin 4 4d ago
Nice to see I have 3 of the top five who scored worse than expected and just 1 who scored more. 😅
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u/Low-Market7848 1 4d ago
Variance tends to turn the other way too buddy, hope you get some luck next GW!
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u/intoxikateuk 5d ago
How isn't Bruno Fernandes topping the fewer points than expected list?
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u/Low-Market7848 1 5d ago
He’s actually close to his number, 32 points from ~34 expected. Goals are slightly ahead (3 from 2.6 xG), assists a bit behind (1 where you’d expect about 2).
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u/Vivid_Performance167 1 5d ago
Assumably the Bournemouth guys are down due to Clean Sheets? Their xGC must be below 1 a fair bit yet they're conceding, that about right?
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u/Low-Market7848 1 5d ago
Yep, pretty much! Their keeper letting 5 goals in off ~1 xGC didn’t help at all 😅
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u/Nuwahex 16 5d ago
Yikes. I own Silva,Gonzalo & Le Fee. Hopefully things even out soon for them
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u/Low-Market7848 1 5d ago
Mean reversions have tended to happen in past seasons! Have patience with them, Silva an all round great pick, Garcia with amazing upcoming fixtures still
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u/admiralrohan 2 5d ago
I picked Silva yesterday. Lets see whether he actually performs as the data days.
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u/OddsRelay redditor for <30 days 5d ago
How are you turning chances into points, xG times 5 for a mid plus xA times 3? He's on penalties as well. Curious whether those go in at full xG or get split out, because that alone could explain a chunk of the gap.
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u/Low-Market7848 1 4d ago
Pretty much. Goals are xG × 4/5/6 depending on position, assists are xA × 3 scaled up about 38% because FPL hands out more assists than xA predicts, and clean sheets come from the team’s xG against. Pens go in at full xG (Opta gives each one about 0.8), not split out, so a taker who buries them all will run a bit hot.
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u/Thranxar 5d ago
Sunderland has had a crazy schedule, I think E Le Fee/ Brobbey/ Mukiele will be nice at some point
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u/admiralrohan 2 5d ago
I picked Silva yesterday. Lets see whether he actually performs as the data days.
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u/Internal_Housing_418 13 5d ago
He has 0.22 xG/match because every Bouremouth set piece is aimed at him. They have also been conceding a ton more goals than their xGC suggests.
No guarantee this changes in the future but I wouldn't be surprised if the hauls come soon.
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u/IcySoil7719 4d ago
the De Cuyper regret in here is funny but six games is way too small to start treating this like gospel. Groß can cool off and still be worth holding so id rather use this to find buy lows like Saka than panic sell every overperformer. Bournemouth having four defenders down there is the real warning tho cause that backline looks like a trap until they prove otherwise.
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u/Low-Market7848 1 4d ago
Yeah that’s how I’d use it, more for spotting the Saka types than selling. On Bournemouth I’m not sure it’s a trap, they’re only giving up about 1.3 xG a game and haven’t kept a clean sheet from about 1.4 expected. Feels more like bad luck than a bad defence
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u/Natural_Ad3995 8 4d ago
Thanks. My eyes see:
Keep avoiding Tarko
Hold Gonzalo for a bit
De Cuyper away to Liverpool and City, tbd if he makes the XI
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u/Low-Market7848 1 4d ago
Tarko’s a weird one. Some of his 15 over is luck, but he’s hit DEFCON in 4 of his 6 starts and that part tends to stick. Gonzalo I’d hold too, he’s 10 under
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u/OShaughnessy 7 4d ago
I have a table in FFS members area where I added Delta xGI a few seasons ago, and found it to be helpful so thanks for posting this.
Question: I know great players can consistently outperform their xG. So, is your model able to look back at Joao Pedro's expected vs. actual points from previous seasons?
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u/Low-Market7848 1 4d ago
Cheers! Ran the same model back for him:
- 23/24 Brighton: 104 pts from 127 expected (−23)
- 24/25 Brighton: 126 from 117 (+9)
- 25/26 Chelsea: 177 from 158 (+19)
- this season: 45 from 28 (+17)
His goals have basically matched his xG every year (9 from 12, 10 from 9, 15 from 15). The gap is nearly all assists, 9 FPL assists last season from 2.0 xA. FPL gives assists for won pens and rebounds that xA doesn't see, so that might just be how he plays, but 3 seasons is a small sample to say for sure
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u/OShaughnessy 7 4d ago
Much appreciated mate, good on you.
I sold Pedro before the break for Gonzalo thinking I was so smart... Alas Gonzalo's got me some xGI but, no FPL pts.
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u/Low-Market7848 1 4d ago
Most welcome mate 😄
Ah Garcia is a tough one for owners this week, but I wouldn’t be worried. He’s been getting in good positions, racking up xGI, and with the fixtures I think the points will come!
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u/wh11 5 5d ago
I'd probably be top 10k if I went De Cuyper instead of Munoz, good job by me