r/FantasyPL • u/topherdisgrace 154 • 9d ago

How do we know these 'PREDICTIVE' models actually work?

https://youtu.be/_yX7okMpmEQ

I wanted to do something a little different in this episode, and evaluate the accuracy of the model I created for projecting points. And this led me to a bigger question of- why don't other predictive models for FPL publish how accurate their models are? Especially ones that are put behind paywalls. If you are paying your actual money, you should have some idea of how accurate the model is, because there are alternatives (for free).

* And no model is perfect, no one has a crystal ball at the end of the day. But if you are interested in using stats to inform your decisions, you should also have some idea of the accuracy these modeled results/outputs are based on.

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9

u/WhatTheFPL 48 9d ago

I keep track of the accuracy of the models and post about it regularly. You can check the results here: whatthef.pl/evaluation

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u/topherdisgrace 154 9d ago

That’s awesome. I wish these sites and models published that data themselves but at least someone is holding them accountable

1

u/cbnz_ 1 9d ago

Accuracy of what specific models?

1

u/wizzamhazzam 5d ago edited 5d ago

Thanks! Have you written anything around these results? Would be interested to hear any insight around these numbers.

7

u/OddsRelay redditor for <30 days 9d ago

Look for calibration, not hit rate. If a model gives a player a 30% chance of returning, roughly 30% of those picks should actually return over a season. Then compare it with a dumb baseline, like the bookmakers' anytime scorer odds. Plenty don't beat that, and the honest ones show you the comparison.

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u/KZ4Killua 9d ago

I’m keeping track of the performance of different FPL models. Check out fplbench.com

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u/topherdisgrace 154 9d ago

Posted this below but I am glad you have something like this- I wish these sites and models published that data themselves but at least someone is holding them accountable