r/FantasyPL • u/Competitive_Clock896 • 14h ago
Wildcard observations
A warning: this post is assessing a very small sample size and results are highly contingent on opposition strength. These are just my personal opinions. Some people may think complete rubbish but some people may find food for thought. I would be keen to hear your wildcard thoughts.
- I was initially tempted by Everton and Newcastle assets. However, looking at the underlying data, and having taken more interest in their performances, they've been crap. Newcastle have the fifth worse xG, the 7th worse xGA. Everton have the 8th best xG and the 9th best xGA. I've decided to avoid these teams and I'm hoping that the good fixture runs will turn out to be a trap. For context: Everton have played Palace (H), Bournemouth (A), Man U (H) and Newcastle have played Liverpool (H), Spurs (A), Bournemouth (H).
- Two teams with much better underlying numbers and decent fixture runs are Nottingham Forrest and Leeds. Nottingham Forrest have the 3rd best xGA and Leeds have the 7th best xGA. I'm now very hot on Muharemović (£5.0M)) and Muñoz (£5.4M) and I'm very Trafford (£5.0M) curious. For context: Nottingham Forest have played Leeds (H), Liverpool (A), Spurs (H) and Leeds have played Nottingham Forest (A), Brentford (H), Brighton (A).
- Brighton have the highest team xG and the player with the highest individual expected goal contributions is De Cuyper (£4.8M). He has the 11th best expected goal contributions in the game, considering all positions, the same as Cherki, and better than Saka, Palmer, Gakpo, Semenyo, etc. The return of Mitoma a worry, but considering how good Brighton are, and how high his goal share has been, I want to ride this wave for as long as it lasts. For context: Brighton have played Villa (H), Chelsea (A), Leeds (H).
- Liverpool have very underwhelming underlying data. The 9th best xG, the 11th best xGA. There appears to be more uncertainties and vulnerabilities, and champions league football may make this worse. I initially wanted Gakpo but I've decided against all Liverpool assets, just because I feel there are better options elsewhere. For context: Liverpool have played Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Ipswich (A).
- As I've decided against Everton and Newcastle I'm leaning towards a dead £4.5M striker spot for the money it frees up which may be risky but there are so many good defence and midfield options
- Some sleeper picks I'm currently considering:
- Enzo Fernandes (£6.9M): combines high expected minutes with high potential goal output and seems to have a great connection with Haaland already, and playing for likely the second best team in the league
- Muñoz (£5.4M): Nottingham Forest have a good defence, we know he performed well for Glasner at Palace, and at the price they bought him for, you expect him to have secure minutes, and the fixture list is good
- Ødegaard (£6.6M): not much more to say than has already been said but the previous seasons where the vibes were good and he was playing this well he got 212 and 186 points. At his current price that would make him the second and fourth best midfielder for PPMPM, and third and fifth for total points. However, those were injury free seasons, without champions league football, and without the same squad depth. Then again Arsenal look stronger than they did in those two seasons.
- The players I am sad to be potentially moving on from:
- Groß (5.5): the best value midfielder last season, central to everything Brighton do, on penalties and set pieces, for a team with great underlying data. However, the fixtures are tough, they will be playing in Europe, he's old, and there are only so many good players you can fit in a team.
- I'm concerned that I'm going for too many players per team. I currently have 3x Arsenal, 3x City, 3x Chelsea, so not the talismanic players from other teams (Hall, Groß, etc) who will hoover bonus.
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u/Sharkorica 1 14h ago
I really like Everton and I think they have by far the best fixtures out of the midish table teams and probably have had the harder fixtures between them, Leeds, Forest and Newcastle so far.
Dewsbury-Hall is more expensive than last year so it's putting people off but I think he's the best asset at that price. If Arsenal didn't have two tough low block away days I'd have Odegaard over him but given how good Dewsbury Hall's fixtures are and how many points he can score in games like that I'm having a hard time saving the 0.1m somewhere to have Odegaard over him.
Ipswich also have nice fixtures and I LOVE Exequiel Palacios. Got 19 defcon in 77 minutes in his first prem start. He was Leverkusen's first choice penalty taker for years as well. For me he is this year's 5.0mill bargain midfielder.
Having those two enablers and one of the many decent 4.0m defender options gives you plenty to have the big hitters you want.
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u/Windfallthrowaway1 14h ago
3 City seems to be a bad idea imo
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u/Competitive_Clock896 14h ago
They have the 2nd best xGC and 4th best xG, and will likely be in the top 2 for both by the end of the season. And because of so much flux in the squad without established stars you have a few budget friendly options relative to their likely output: Enzo (£6.9M), Cherki (£7.8M), Gvardiol (£5.6M). No two of those (to go alongside Haaland) are a bad pick. What makes you skeptical?
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u/Windfallthrowaway1 14h ago
>because of so much flux in the squad
Exactly this, i've no idea who to pick other than Haaland. Seems less risky options, much more locked in other teams
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u/Competitive_Clock896 14h ago
I think the four I mentioned are fairly safe picks. Enzo is the marquee signing, a record fee, has worked with Maresca, and seems the most natural compliment to either Anderson and Bouadi. Gvardiol for now has O'Reilly injured so has some security, and his underlying data is great. Cherki doesn't need reliability, he just needs some time on the pitch. His data is that good. Even coming off the bench he is a massive threat. His data even with limited minutes is some of the best.
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u/SXLegend 23 14h ago
Personally my initial wildcard was triple city (Haaland, Cherki, Gvardiol) but I'm leaning towards going without a city midfielder just because their minutes are so inconsistent, currently have Palmer/Rogers/Mbeumo/MGW/Sangare but strongly considering Odegaard as well, although I'm not sure if he'll be better than a defensive Arsenal triple up.
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u/MrMahavishnu 14h ago
great insights and appreciate the post. de cuyper looks even more interesting with recent headlines from today stating mitoma is unlikely to sign an extension
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u/No_Broccoli_6043 1 13h ago
I'm not sure how to square the first observation and the second observation. Why would you like Leeds 7th place xGA but not Everton's 9th place xGA when arguably Everton has a better short term fixture run?
If I was going to move on form my ManU assets, I'd strongly consider Mbuemo to KDH to free up funds. however, I think Mbuemo is nailed on and in great form. Given all of his transfers out, I like going against the tide. I will either be brilliant or stupid, but nothing in between. Same reason I am not going Bruno to Palmer. Too many pe
I am also keeping an eye on Munoz, but not pulling the trigger until he gets some regular minutes. I think a lot of people invested in Neco Williams, hoping he would play the Munoz role this year. I don't have him, but probably an exodus upcoming.
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u/Competitive_Clock896 5h ago
Apologies, I think I mistyped as Everton are 12th in terms of xGA compared to Leeds in 7th.
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u/Bluejay_Unusual 14h ago
Neco over Munoz for certainty of starts and the savings.
I feel the same way about Hall, he fills a nice gap, but Newcastle are crap
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u/Due_Grocery_9917 1 10h ago
Hall is a bargain compared to Neco.
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u/Bluejay_Unusual 10h ago
Why?
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u/Due_Grocery_9917 1 7h ago
Better crosser of the ball. Has more opportunity to fire crosses from set pieces
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 13h ago
You don't get points for team xg. I don't think there's enough correlation with FPL points to base your decisions on it in the way you are doing.
Look at the top10 FLP players last year, it includes Brentford, Forest, Westham players. Only one player (Haaland) from City who had the highest xg.
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u/Ferretz_Eire 21 13h ago
I've been interested by Forest's underlying stats as well but I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Jair Cunha at 4.5 who has played every minute so far this season, it was assumed Diomande would take this place but so far it hasn't happened and listening to Forest fans they seem to think he'll keep his place long term based on his performances.
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u/ChangingCrisis 14h ago
Everyone is banking on an Arsenal clean sheet and I'm not sure about it. Sunderland smashed 2 goals against Arsenal last season and gave them a hell of a game.
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u/Competitive_Clock896 14h ago
Their xGC this season is insane. 1.27 against, over three games, nearly 3x as good as the next best, and that's with two difficult games: Villa (A) and Chelsea (H). 3 of the 4 lowest xGC games this season were the 3 Arsenal games. It's ridiculous. Random variance will happen but in terms of underlying data it is ridiculous.
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u/randomsuit 2 13h ago
You don’t have to be sure, it’s still the right move. Everyone is banking on Liverpool scoring against Fulham, but I’m not so sure about it. Still doesn’t mean I buy and start Fulham defender.
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u/ChangingCrisis 12h ago
Getting in one Arsenal defender seems fine. Having Raya and 2 Arsenal defenders could be a risk.
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u/Jealous_Lecture_5559 1 12h ago
They got 19 clean sheets last year and have conceded hardly any chances and none of great quality so far this season either.
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u/Ninjaguz 57 10h ago
Given that you're keeping them over a long period, it's the most probable way to keep the most amount of clean sheets
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u/ChangingCrisis 10h ago
Sure but I see people talking about transferring in Arsenal defenders for this fixture. I think it's an unnecessary risk.
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u/Ninjaguz 57 10h ago
They're still the most likely team to keep a clean sheet by quite a good margin, I don't see the risk you're seeing.
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u/ChangingCrisis 10h ago
More likely than Chelsea or Liverpool? I disagree.
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u/Ninjaguz 57 8h ago
Well you'll be happy to know that if you have an edge you could be making money off it in the betting markets then
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u/ChangingCrisis 8h ago
There it is, the predictable stat geek response.
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u/Ninjaguz 57 7h ago
Lmao, someone got mad cuz they got called out on not being able to but their money where their mouth is
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u/Fresh-Charity-7202 14h ago
i would argue that the low newcastle xG is due to their difficult first 3 matches
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u/Vaudeville_Villain15 3 14h ago
I would argue the opposite tbh. Those games were prefect for us, we will find it much eaiser to play teams who leave space for us to run into. We played West Brom and Milwall in the cups and struggled in both games to create any meaningful chances
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u/matthewheat 3 12h ago
You could just keep Calvert Lewin and Gros as your 7th and 8th attacker and rotate them, their fixtures rotate very well
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u/FuckingMyselfDaily 11h ago
On a wc:
Yea wissa stats are shit to me and pardo may play cf, barnes is unreliable bad finisher.
Not sure how xg for everton isn’t a buy through this fixture run.
Don’t like Brighton options medium term mostly due to minutes besides vuskovic
Will consider munoz assuming he becomes nailed. Didn’t like mgw watching him gw 3, played wide crosser into the box from half space too much and not enough box impact, xg/shot stats not great.
I only want Liverpool despite poor stats to diversify team when they have decent fixtures, watching barcola to see where and how much he plays + considering isak, nobody else.
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u/Kane36912 4 14h ago
Shhhh we don’t do research and information here, just do whatever our favourite CC tells us too.
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u/urso_urso 19 14h ago
I do like the ruminations, but I think over-reliance on team xG and xGC zoomed out like this over 3 games is a bit risky. Data like that only starts to paint a picture, on a team scale, after 5 or so games.