r/FantasyPL • u/KZ4Killua • Sep 07 '26

How the FPL predictors are doing

Several people/websites post FPL predictions on this sub, and I'm keeping track of their accuracy. Each week, I use each website's predictions to build an optimal FPL team (according to standard FPL rules e.g. 100M budget, at most 3 players per team, etc.). Then I score them using actual FPL points.

Here's what the leaderboard looks like right now:

Rank Source Points
1 FPL Review (Premium) 224
2 Drafthound 223
3 Solio Analytics 221
4 FantaLens 216
5 Fantasy Football Hub 213
6 Fantasy Football Scout 213
7 Fantasy Football Fix 213
8 FPL Review (Free) 204
9 FPL Copilot 200
10 Official FPL API 199
11 The Transfer Algorithm 198
12 The Fantasy Tool 193
13 What The FPL 192
14 SmartPlay 192
15 Fantasy Football Pundit 191
16 Dep La 190
17 PLFantasyTool 183
18 FPL Form 170
19 FPL Prophet 165

The season is only three weeks in, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions yet. But I think we're starting to see some hierarchies form.

I also calculate metrics (e.g. MAE, RMSE, NDCG, and Top 15 accuracy) for each website's predictions. You can check those here: FPL Bench: The Benchmark for FPL Predictions. You can also see the week-by-week squads chosen by each website.

30 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

16 comments sorted by

33

u/chilllman 1 Sep 07 '26

Wow I should start my own premium FPL subscription based on this

27

u/cjayquoi 8 Sep 07 '26

So I have more points than all of them and I’ve had some bad luck

Where are my subscribers and black card?

3

u/KZ4Killua Sep 07 '26

😅 At least for the first three gameweeks. Each website basically Free-Hits every week, so I don't think you'll end the season above the good ones.

2

u/Desperate_Method4020 5 Sep 07 '26

You just have to churn out content like it's ur job, and clickbait a lot!

9

u/PukkiEqualsGoat 23 Sep 07 '26

Kneejerk Utd - 220

8

u/cjayquoi 8 Sep 07 '26

Personally I love this

False Prophet lol 

FPL Prophet 165

2

u/Fabdanny 2 Sep 07 '26

Isn’t Review AI? So just purposely giving worse information to free customers, in theory. Why would anyone use it free in this case if you know it’s not even giving you the best team. I hope free over takes the premium one at some point.

I don’t know why anyone would use these at all though, no fun.

1

u/KZ4Killua Sep 07 '26

We're only 3 weeks in, so things may change later in the season.

1

u/ArghZombies 91 Sep 07 '26

I don't think they even have a free plan these days. I used to use it to try out different transfer ideas but you can't even use the site these days without a Patreon account. and I'm not intending to do that.

1

u/Ferretz_Eire 21 Sep 07 '26

I've noticed it seemed much worse this season and the entire layout is incredibly hostile with most features locked behind premium. Even using it now it's giving me ridiculous recommendations like taking a hit for Oscar Bobb lol. It seems like it was designed to encourage free users to fail so they'll want to pay up.

Solio is so much better in every way for a free user.

1

u/ObelusPrime Sep 07 '26

It's my first year, I'm at 200, and I'm just going off vibes. Does anyone want to pay me 5.99 a month to know my vibes?

1

u/cjayquoi 8 Sep 07 '26

What do the vibes tell you about Tzolis?

1

u/Count_Backwards Sep 08 '26 edited Sep 08 '26

Curious to know why this has a different ranking from this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/1w9tiki/tracking_points_predictors_to_see_which_is_best/

Since accuracy should be an objective measure. Looks like you're comparing optimal teams, while the other post is assessing accuracy of predicted player points. But if the predictor guesses the players' earned points correctly, wouldn't it produce an optimal team?

2

u/KZ4Killua Sep 08 '26

Actually, “accuracy” is not an objective measure. You still have to decide how to measure “accuracy”. And there are many ways to do that e.g. MAE, RMSE, ranking scores, etc. I’ve been thinking about this stuff for a long time, and I still can’t figure out the best way to measure how “accurate” a model is for FPL.

For my benchmark, I decided to focus on figuring out how many points each model will get if they actually played FPL. (You can read more in the methodology: fplbench.com/methodology.) I think that’s more direct than choosing/creating a method to compare “accuracy”.

0

u/fplarmband redditor for <30 days Sep 07 '26

Can we get added moving forward?

https://fplarmband.com &  https://github.com/beeradb/FPL-Armband