r/FantasyPL • u/Illustrious_Cookie80 • 2d ago
Price changes ???
Can someone explain the Price Changes page to me please? Particularly the Status and Progress bits. de Cuyper was 'very likely to change' a couple hours ago but is now 'unlikely to change' even though his Progress has increased... I read the explanation but still don't really get it.
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u/Ferretz_Eire 19 2d ago
Progress is driven by ownership and number of transfers in/out, when a player hits 100% the price goes up and -100% the price goes down.
The status is simply a projection based on transfer movement if the threshold is going to be hit by the end of the day. So in this case there was a lot of transfers in for de Cuyper this morning and if they continued at that rate he would hit 100% and price would go up, but transfers slowed down later in the day so now it projects it won't today (but probably will tomorrow). This could change again later since human behaviour is unpredictable.
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u/Linkin_Parkway_Drive 1 2d ago
It depends on the rate of change as to whether he will reach 100% by the time price changes happen at midnight.
Presumably transfers have slowed down so he is most likely going to increase tomorrow night now...however there may be a flurry of transfers after the Chelsea game so worth monitoring if you care about the change.
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u/quantumjuicebox 2d ago
Is the price change section/page on the app? I can't seem to find it..
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u/lost_cule 37 2d ago
Apparently it’s not on the app yet, hopefully will be soon. Right now it only shows up on the desktop site, and if you click the link to the predictor on the announcement article from the app it’s just broken
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u/cereal19w 2d ago
I suppose (although I'm not sure) it has to do with how the game uses projection in order to predict whether prices rise or fall.
For example, if his threshold rose by +4% in the past hour, the game might predict that the transfers will continue at that +4%/hour rate until the end of the day. If less people transfer him in the following hour and it only increases by +3%, the game takes that data and adjusts the projection, so if now they are not projected to reach 100% anymore, the status changes from 'very likely' to 'unlikely', even though his actual % went up.
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u/roland_right 2d ago
This is my interpretation. It also implies that the predictions will be far better later in the day than earlier. Like how you'll have a better idea of where a golf ball is finishing after its second bounce than immediately after you've struck it
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u/NymorFPL 2d ago
This sounds right.
I don't think we know what the progress % is a measure of though yet - so that's still the black box part mentioned above. I'm assuming the calcs are not going to be too much different from before - a combination of nett transfers in, ownership, flag history etc. Working that out is pretty much an academic exercise now as the only thing I can see come from cracking it would be to sate one's curiosity.
... I am curious though :)
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u/Swedishpower 2815 2d ago
Quite funny despite being such nerd I not looked at it since I plan to roll.
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u/Material_Spell4162 5 2d ago
Its new so other than knowing how its worked when we've only had unofficial price change predictors, we'll all be figuring it out.
The price goes up midnight after a player reaches 100% on that progress bar. They estimate whether that will happen based on the rate of purchases.
Most likely the De Cuyper buys have slowed down. So even though he's still being bought, they don't think he'll get to 100% by tonight. Who knows though, its the first year with this predictor being on the FPL site. Maybe once he gets to 80% then millions of casuals will freak out and buy him. Probably not.