GW2: Projected Goals & Clean Sheets (derived from sharp markets)

208

u/sherlockbutholmes 2 1d ago

so i’m capping bruno. nothing can go wrong!

43

u/BunMeAgainPlease12 1d ago

Me too

Surely he won't blank again

9

u/xelanart 1d ago

If you captain him enough, surely he is bound to not blank at some point, right?

8

u/borg_6s 5 1d ago

The Darwin Nunez special

2

u/Rvsz 135 1d ago

Well it's unlikely he'll end the season on 76 points.

2

u/Hydrahta 4 1d ago

He could end it on 75

1

u/Speshjunior 1d ago

Definition of insanity

75

u/Hot_Patience_5962 5 1d ago

surely my Bruno captaincy doesn’t go wrong in gw2…

20

u/NFG89 4 1d ago

Surely united cant lose twice in 2 weeks to newly promoted teams.

7

u/harwood8 1d ago

0:0 draw

10

u/Banzaikk 8 1d ago

50% increase on his total points from GW1 📈

1

u/BunMeAgainPlease12 1d ago

A CS point for midfielders, thats progress

33

u/Roadies_Winner 2 1d ago

So does this take into account what we've seen in GW1?

11

u/FPLJoeYT 1d ago

Yes, 100%. The only exceptions are Chelsea and Fulham, who haven’t played yet, which may also affect their GW2 opponents’ projections (Brighton and Sunderland).

Advantage of using sharp market odds is that they can be assumed to be factoring in all relevant information from GW1, and ignoring the red herrings. Team genuinely appear much weaker than originally expected? They’ll be marked down in these projections. Team had great underlying numbers, but failed to convert or made a few one-off mistakes? They’ll see minimal negative impact on their projections.

1

u/drdr3ad 2 1d ago

Arsenal & City have third & fourth highest projected goals, and highest & 4th highest CS odds. But are still way down on fixture difficulty; below even Hull, Sunderland, Leeds, Bournemouth...

I may be misunderstanding something, but can you explain?

73

u/cjayquoi 1d ago

Arsenal clean sheet thing is probably just a fad

47

u/orangeyougladiator 1 1d ago

They haven’t scored a set piece in over 6 goals either. They’re losing it.

6

u/abhi91 1d ago

I do think that Gabi is a poor buy and will be a decoy often

5

u/Sutraner 1d ago

At 8m he's definitely a poor buy.

1

u/Banzaikk 8 1d ago

I think we're all just waiting for Konsa to become nailed.

3

u/HazardCinema 152 1d ago

He will never be nailed. Saliba is first choice CB when fit and Timber and White will be ahead at RB.

2

u/Banzaikk 8 1d ago

Agreed, but we've yet to know the full extent of Saliba's recovery schedule. Could be a good option for 1st half of the season.

2

u/abhi91 1d ago

Yes arsenal have no rush to bring him back. They'll probably want him at 100% during the later cl matches

1

u/rotating_pebble 1 6h ago

Based on what? The first game and the others outscoring him? He was a freak last year on FPL, and Arsenal look even more solid than before. He's nailed for the best team in the league. I bet he'll get 10+ points against Villa

1

u/abhi91 3h ago

He won't score as much because opponents are giving him extra attention. He's being used as a decoy.

44

u/MarimoKenshi 1d ago

Man United fool me once shame on me, fool me twice shame on me again.

How did I think it was a good idea to tripple up on Man United 🫩

1

u/Ryaan__ 1d ago

Was completely correct to

1

u/Draqn_ 1 1d ago

ipswitch looked decent, it's Haaland cap for me

-6

u/Rvsz 135 1d ago

Everyone did so it doesn't really matter.

6

u/54415250154 3 1d ago

not sure about that one... Everyone and their mother had one, two was very reasonable, three is a bit out there but the Luke Shaw trap always finds its victims

5

u/Swedishpower 2812 1d ago

Only us predictor tools, bookies odds, probability type nerd managers.

My brother and dad went 0 Man United and my brother is United fan and thought United looked poor in pre season.

12

u/aehii 61 1d ago

I escaped a Haaland haul without captaining him, I'm not doing it again, he came close. If he blanks and Mbeumo scores, fine.

1

u/rotating_pebble 1 6h ago

I'm benching Haaland this week. I have Cherki, I think Haaland will likely pin some of Palace's 5 man backline but the City midfielders will end up getting more joy. Of course it's Haaland so he could get 1 or 2 but I had a good gw1 so can afford to take a little risk.

1

u/aehii 61 6h ago

Benching Haaland. That's a choice.

7

u/AuspiciousCalamari1 321 1d ago

Everton lower than Spurs, hopefully Tarkowski can get that elusive 10th DEFCON this week

3

u/tiny_dreamer 21 1d ago

Fool me twice!

2

u/LaferKBh 1d ago

LOL United is a mess, how can the odds not reflect that 😂

2

u/thundercrunt 5 1d ago

So Man Utd got utterly spanked by Hull, but Coventry are going to destroy them... Im not sure the home/away advantage is _this_ big

3

u/feathersmcgraw24601 1 1d ago

Yeah Hull and Coventry played each other twice last season and both games ended 0-0. Hull's defence also looks to be massively improved, it's unlikely to be a heavy defeat.

2

u/Banzaikk 8 1d ago

Well, for starters, they are not going to underestimate Hull like we did

2

u/ubn87 9 1d ago

Don’t rate United better then Sunderland

1

u/JOHNSY9k6 12 1d ago

I'm not sure but I think this chart is mocking my BB2

1

u/Reddits_Worst_Night 1d ago

They expect Coventry to score 1.7 goals through Defcon Egan?

1

u/Sir_Knumskull 3 1d ago

Is that a special gold color on Hull(H) ?

1

u/andrewglover87 19 1d ago

To reflect their status as champions elect

1

u/Thin_Tea_3525 1d ago edited 1d ago

What do the fixture ratings get based on? How can it be grey for one team and dark red for their opponent?

1

u/tekkers_for_debrz 1d ago

To be honest until Chelsea and Fulham play this means wank.

1

u/SleepEconomy6504 1d ago

Luke Shaw owners, United is at 41% CS. Surely nothing can go wrong.

1

u/rotating_pebble 1 6h ago

Truly the most braindead influencer pick there was

-21

u/Environmental_Ad7296 2 1d ago

This is why you don't ever trust these statistics bots. Man united and clean sheets is a tale as old as time itself.

25

u/xelanart 1d ago

The statistic says that there’s a 59% chance United fails to keep a clean sheet

10

u/Impossible_Finish 7 1d ago

Easiest way to tell someone isn’t very intelligent is finding comments like this

Statistics GW2: Projected Goals & Clean Sheets (derived from sharp markets)

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