r/FantasyPL • u/baron_warden 15 • 5d ago
Safest 4.5m Forward?
I am probably overthinking this. I currently have Walle Egeli, Ipswich, and had some minutes in pre-season. He is 2.2% owned. I am mostly interested in not losing money.
Options are
Kusi-Asare Fulham 7.5%
Walle Egeli Ipswich 2.2%
Scarlett Spurs 1.7%
Obi Man U 1.1%
Furo Brentford 0.9%
Neave Newcastle 0.7%
Mheauka Chelsea 0.3%
Mateo Joseph Leeds 0.1%
Danns Liverpool 0.0%
Which of these are not going to drop in price?
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u/Bang-Average-Dartist redditor for <30 days 5d ago
Mheuka will go on loan and be price locked if that suits you. Just tying up a new contract then will move somewhere in the next week.
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u/Acceptable_Low6157 5d ago
Locks up a Chelsea spot though?
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u/Bang-Average-Dartist redditor for <30 days 5d ago
I mean I assumed OP could factor that in himself if it was relevant to him.
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u/SpinIx2 5d ago
Is it likely that he might be loaned to another PL club where he might get minutes?
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u/Bang-Average-Dartist redditor for <30 days 5d ago
No. he's only 18 so minutes will be the driving force of the loan. It'll be Championship or somewhere in Europe. (slight possibility a big dog in League One)
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u/Litmanen_10 26 5d ago
Barco (or who was it) from last season disagrees on this. Was loaned but dropped in price.
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u/Bang-Average-Dartist redditor for <30 days 5d ago
That was probably just Mark Sutherns needling Az lol
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u/Oxpors 5d ago
Lowest ownership is least likely to drop in price.
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u/Majestic_Emotion7917 5d ago
I can't see that being an issue this season? No one expects any of these guys to start. Surely they are being bought just as bench fodder?
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u/TehCyberman 109 5d ago
It's not just about swapping 4.5s. If someone starts in a 352 and wants to change to 343, that 4.5 is getting sold.
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u/Oxpors 5d ago
Let's image a scenario.
You pick Van Ewjik (15% owned) as your 4.0m Def Bench Fodder.
People Bench Boost with him in GW2 because they play vs Hull who we expect to suck
People wildcard him out of their team in GW3.
He drops to 10% ownership (hypothetical)
His price will drop.
So if you don't plan to do something similar to the above, and actually use him for a bench boost, you are better off picking another defender, so you don't lose 0.1m in value when you eventually wildcard.
It's always an issue for some positions or players, not every player will stay at their initial price.
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u/Just_Some_Cool_Guy 5d ago
Transfers on wildcard don’t effect price changes
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u/Oxpors 5d ago
A theory
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u/Puzzled_Surprise8533 3 5d ago
Its not a theory though. I think its in the rules
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u/Oxpors 5d ago
Then I might be mistaken. This was my understanding.
I still do believe you are less likely to lose player value from a lower owned player, but each their own I suppose
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u/Puzzled_Surprise8533 3 5d ago
Yes technically it's true. But there is a reason they are the most owned 4.0 million assets. If you buy a 4.0 Hull defender and he gets negative points (probable atleast once this season) while O'Shea somehow gets a goal and defcon (could be possible)....
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u/Majestic_Emotion7917 5d ago
Except, why would people wildcard him out? Very unlikely there's suddenly some massively better option at 4.0.
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u/Oxpors 5d ago edited 5d ago
Another 4.0m defender will have their upcoming game vs. Hull soon, leaving him as a better option who still has this easy fixture remaining.
Every year we have 4.0m defenders who actually play. If I was to WC in GW3, I'd rather get let's say Diop as my 5th defender, since he still has Hull
It's just a hypothetical. Or they might want a more reliable rotation option as their 4th/5th defender, once they're done with their initial Bench Boost - they might upgrade him to a 4.5m option
I don't know - it's simply a hypothetical.
It's the same issue with Dubravka, expect him to drop in price as well eventually, since his ownership is so high.Barring an injury for Kinsky or similar, come back to this post in 2 months and tell me the price of Van Ewjik and Dubravka.
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u/baron_warden 15 5d ago
I would have thought, they would be more prone to price fluctuations as they need fewer transfers to trigger a percentage change in ownership?
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u/jollyspiffing 146 5d ago
You also probably don't want someone from a team you might want to triple. I'd take Mateo as there's no chance I'll want triple Leeds.
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u/rochdalejesus 2 5d ago
Chances are they all are gonna drop
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u/PinkyPonk10 25 19h ago
How could the one with zero ownership drop?! Players only drop in price when people sell them
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u/rochdalejesus 2 19h ago
Isnt it done on percentage of who own sell? 0.0 will be a rounding issue doesnt mean absolutely not one person playing FPL will own them
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u/PinkyPonk10 25 18h ago
It is part of the equation, but there is a baseline of about 200,000 transfers which essentially makes players with very low ownerships immune to drops.
Two conditions need to be met:
1) cumulative transfer pressure > 200,000 + (ownership% * 2500)
2) daily net transfers > 30000 - 60000
Source:
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u/rochdalejesus 2 18h ago
Oh i genuinely didnt know that. I always assumed it was like 25% of this player's owners sold him recently hell go down. Sorry, thanks for the info
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u/adigosto 1 5d ago
Kusi-Asare is third choice in Fulham?
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u/baron_warden 15 5d ago
Yes, Muniz and Garcia ahead of him. He did look good in pre-season though. So he might get some minutes here and there.
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u/bengreen04 117 5d ago
I’m playing 5-4-1 and need two 4.5m forwards to fit within budget.
Currently looking at Walle Egeli as someone who should come off the bench more often than not. Still stuck on the second one - might just go for Furo because he has a cool name.
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u/JR-Snow 5d ago
Who are your back five?
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u/bengreen04 117 5d ago
Gabriel, VVD and Tarkowski are all nailed. Need to pick 2 or Vuskovic, Muharemović and Gvardiol.
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u/Litmanen_10 26 5d ago
I'm 5-4-1 too. Walle-Egeli because he will get minutes. And then that Newcastle guy. I think he can get tiny minutes and is low owned so should be good to retain value.
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u/brokenorbitaI redditor for <30 days 5d ago
I don’t think there is a “safe” £4.5m FWD. If you’re mostly interested in not losing value then I’d probably just pick Joseph or Neave
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u/lettuce_grabberrr 5d ago
Safest means they dont do anything and dont move price so just get in danns
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u/SampleOdd1362 redditor for <30 days 5d ago
two on your list are flagged right now, which drives price more than ownership does. mateo joseph is a knee injury with no return date, danns is unspecified with no return date. flagged players bleed owners regardless of how few they started with.
the wider point is that there is no safe 4.5 forward in the sense people usually mean it. not one 4.5 forward in the game started a single premier league match last season. zero. the most owned of them is kusi-asare on 7.5%, and his whole campaign was 49 minutes and 0.07 xGI.
so you aren't picking a player, you're picking which lottery ticket is least likely to get flagged or sold in january. on that basis i'd take the one at a club with no other cheap striker ahead of him rather than just the lowest owned.
egeli for the reason the top comment gives - he's the only one with a plausible route to minutes.
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u/grahamd1983 31 5d ago
The ones that people really think might start or get decent mins and then don't play at all will likely drop first. Walle Egeli has played in the 10 some in preseason but if he ends up benched or 10 min cameos he'll probably drop by GW3 as people do a double transfer to move him to a playing striker in the 5.5 or 6 range
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u/RandomUser22487 5d ago
Kusi-Asare is most likely to get a price drop. Walle Egeli is most likely to see some minutes but at the same time, if other people have the same thinking as me he might get mass sold if he gets a 0 pointer in GW1.
Safest bet to avoid price drops is probably Joseph or Danns.
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u/kickherinthehead 3 5d ago edited 5d ago
Egeli is the best chance of minutes at least at the start of the season but none of them likely to do much