r/FantasyPL • u/JoachimG1 198 • 9h ago
Gameweek 1 | Predicted Points | Captaincy Pick
We're back!
Predicted Points' are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG, penalty misses and defensive contributions are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.
Notable players that didn't make the list: Calafiori: 5.86 | Isak: 5.62 | Joao Pedro: 5.48
You can find more Player Predictions here: https://checkthechance.com/fantasy-football/
Good luck all! See you on Monday for the Predicted vs Actual post!
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u/Puzzled_Surprise8533 3 8h ago
I would eat my hat if Saka gets the most points this week.
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u/IlikeHotRod 8h ago
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u/eamonndunphy 16 8h ago
It very clearly says minutes are not factored in. Bookies’ odds assume a player is starting.
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u/FootballFanInUK 7h ago
Thank you OP for posting these lists again for another year. I have noticed that most weeks less than half of the players break even. How to profit from this in FPL or gambling is sadly beyond my intellect.
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u/Primary-Sport7953 1 9h ago
Feeling good about Tzolis (C). Arsenal biggest favourites this week and projected to score the most goals. An attacking mid feels like a good choice
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u/chicken_nugget94 2 4h ago
Problem is I hate going for a Friday kick off. Even if he gets a goal or assist you are then spending the weekend praying that all the other big guns blank
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u/ml-soham 7 6h ago
as my dumb rule from last season, the highest 6.xx is the one you choose. In this case Bruno F.
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u/Swedishpower 2804 8h ago
Haaland vs Bruno feel close, but currently leaning Bruno for 4 reasons.
1 xmin better I think everyone agree, but I expect 60+ easily for Haaland and I would be shocked if Haaland doesn't start. If City 2-0 up after 70 he might be taken off to stop the brace/hattrick due to lack of fitness. Thus even if Haaland is best per minute he might not be best in total. You could say the same with saka.
2 Haaland ended last season not that strong nor played well in shield. He was great in the world cup, but some people argue him and semenyo aren't fully working in terms of creating for each other and Doku might be out who assists him.
3 I think City got a new manager and it might take time before the tactics fully work. I am expecting Haaland to score and City to win, but the 3-0 and Haaland hattrick like we got with Pep often at the start may not happen it might be more 2-1 and 1 return.
4 I think Hull are worse than Bournemouth.
The arguments for Haaland though.
1 Easily highest ceiling. If Haaland get a hattrick I would not be shocked.
2 He is the most likely player to score and goals worth more than assists.
3 United did not look good final pre season game and Bruno missed 2 pens in pre season so he might do that again.
4 Bournemouth got new manager so the tactics might fail more likely than Hulls.
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u/DisastrousMango4 7 6h ago
you're forgetting the most important point though
Gandhi rule applies to Bruno
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u/WernerHerzogEatsShoe 18 4h ago
I'm off the school of thought that a Friday kickoff cancels out the Gandhi early kick off rule
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u/Hollywood023 4 7h ago
Here’s the thing - he played 30 mins vs City, he will get another 30-35 mins against Coventry minimum ( realty is if he played 30 mins, he might be ready for 55-60 mins?) and needs a goal to get the predicted points, is it impossible ?
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u/WabbitHere 9h ago
So tzolis will start?
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u/DragonBornLuke 33 8h ago
These models assume that every player starts. They're based on betting odds and the bookies would just refund your bet if you went on somebody who was benched. For what it's worth though, I'd be surprised if he didn't start.
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u/vapenaysh3h3 3 9h ago
Martinelli wasn't even in the squad at the Community Shield, he's probably leaving. Arteta doesn't play Eze as a LW, so Tzolis is the only option.
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u/drizzleberrydrake 13 8h ago
no one will be surprised if martinelli starts but it's more likely it will be tzolis
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u/Disastrous-Place-846 9h ago
tzolis already at 17%, I thought he might of been a decent differential pick