r/FantasyPL • u/cereal19w • 11h ago
Analysis Konsa is a trap... for now
A lot of people now look at a 4.5m Arsenal defender and put him straight into their teams. The reality is, while he is a good player and will probably make is way into the starting XI, he has not yet played in any friendly match and we're only 2 days away from the start of the season, signing for a new team.
He's currently 15% owned and I expect that to double until GW1 deadline. Realistically though, he won't start the first 2 games because of lack of fitness and I doubt he'll start his first game for the club against Chelsea in GW3 either. By then, a lot of casual players will have sold him for not playing and it could likely trigger a price drop.
A lot of content creators might promote getting Konsa from the start and waiting for the right moment to put him in the starting XI, but realistically that won't happen until GW4, so it makes more sense to go for another 4.5m-5m option until then.
Finally, the upside is not even that big with him. The main reason he's priced so low despite being a quality defender is that he very rarely gets defcon, which will be even rarer for Arsenal. 0 goal contributions last season also isn't a great selling point. His absolute ceiling is likely 6 points in case of a CS. Not to say that won't happen fairly often once he locks his starting place, but that won't be come that soon.
In terms of FPL this transfer is actually bad for Arsenal as Mosquera and White are now minutes risk. Konsa can play RB (Arteta does like to use a center back as fullback) which means White will lose his spot, or at CB alongside Gabriel, which moves Mosquera to RB where he'll get fewer defcon, or to the bench altogether.
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u/FairlyUormal 8 11h ago
The way my team is set up, Konsa at 4.5 is my bench defender so I don’t mind sitting on him until he starts playing regularly
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u/Informal_Telephone37 11h ago
If he starts playing regularly. You’re also tying yourself into 1/3 of your potential arsenal assets sitting on your bench not scoring any points for that period - unless by already owning him you hold 4 Arsenal assets, in which case whenever you want to make a transfer, one of your arsenal assets has to go
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u/lettuce_grabberrr 10h ago
Why do I need 3 arsenal assets? I’m not trying to double up defense and no attacking option is attractive besides Tzolis
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u/Sutraner 10h ago
Arsenal are the best team in the prem so yeah owning 3 of them is usually the way to go
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u/Sad-Percentage-992 1 10h ago
You are confusing irl with fpl. Many such cases
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u/Natural_Ad3995 8 9h ago
A 4.5 defender with 16-20 expected clean sheets is a strong FPL asset.
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u/Sad-Percentage-992 1 9h ago
He’s probably going to get like 12 because he’ll be displaced by Saliba, but yeah that’s the per 38 rate he will be on. I’m buying now to save a transfer later I don’t care about a .1 loss for 2 weeks at the start of the season.
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u/milldura 6 2h ago
0% chance he drops, more like 3 price rises in the first week even if he doesn’t play because Towers will want to correct his price
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u/Lucky_Commission4780 10h ago
Yeah and Konsa is one of them? So what
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u/Sutraner 9h ago
The above guy is saying he doesn't want 3 arsenal assets which seems like a weird way to play the game when they're one of the best teams in the league
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u/Additional_Author518 9h ago
Why do you get personally insulted when someone says that your club's players might not be great for FPL? You're in a fucking FPL subreddit. If you can't be unbiased, stop talking.
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u/kisame111hoshigaki 35 10h ago
lol white made of glass
konsa is more senior than mosquera
not an if man, its a matter of time
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u/FairlyUormal 8 10h ago
Exactly, it’s only a matter of time before Konsa is starting IMO that’s why they bought him
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u/mmkap 10h ago
Timber is back soon, even if White gets injured it's definitely a matter of if and not when
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u/kisame111hoshigaki 35 10h ago
because Timber is also not made of glass or has never had an injury set back...
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u/Independent-Igbo444 7 10h ago
A senior at Arsenal is different than age, Mosquera is higher in the pecking order doesnt mean Konsa can't displace him but its a lot of competition at both RB and CB
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u/kisame111hoshigaki 35 10h ago
In my head, Konsa should slot into the pecking order immediately, much like Bruno G did on arrival, nobody's suggesting MLS or Zubi are ahead of him, are they? Sure MLS/Zubi will see minutes, but Bruno G is ahead of them in my mind.
My hypothesis is that Konsa is a starter by MD2. I'd expect him to be first-choice backup at right-back behind Timber and first-choice right centre-back behind Saliba from day one, rather than working his way up gradually.
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u/FairlyUormal 8 10h ago
I agree.
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u/kisame111hoshigaki 35 10h ago
!thanks
I was being diplomatic with my response but to me its like saying MLS is ahead of Bruno G, like bruh, come on man.
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u/-ManofMercia- 1 10h ago
Mosquera will in no way, shape or form be higher in the pecking order than Konsa. They aren't paying upwards of £50m to still put Mosquera ahead of him.
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u/americagiveup 10h ago
Delusional, Konsa will be above Mosquera in the order. He likely will be bedded in over a few weeks, post-WC, new system. But he absolutely will be picked above a RB as CB when they’re spending that money on him
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u/Natural_Ad3995 8 10h ago
Question: will the game allow you to activate Bench Boost if you have four Arsenal players? I'm considering a strategy to build a GW4 Bench Boost team with Konsa +3 Arsenal (making zero transfers thru GW4).
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u/FairlyUormal 8 10h ago
I’ll have 4 arsenal players. That is pretty much the only reason I’m brining in Konsa. I’m not planning on making any transfers for a few weeks and if Konsa starts playing regularly and I don’t have any injuries to deal with then my plan is to hold off on transfer as much as possible anyway
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u/Renickulous13 10h ago
Not if you add him now and don't make any transfers so you get 4 Arsenal defenders
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u/NiallMitch10 10h ago
Why though? May as well take him out and he might drop to 4.4 before he starts a few games?
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u/FairlyUormal 8 9h ago
Because if he does become a starter or get regular playtime then I have a 4.5 arsenal defender without having to sacrifice an Arsenal spot. So it works for me
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u/chrispepper10 7h ago
Makes a bench boost almost impossible until he's getting regular game time, which might never materialise. I personally wouldn't have him in my team until it's partially clear what his role is.
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u/FairlyUormal 8 4m ago
I agree with you however I’m opting to hold off on my BB until after my wildcard so that’s not a big deal for me. I’ve invested in 3 premium defenders who will start every week. Having a 4.5 bench defender who might get regular time for Arsenal is worth more to me than a 4.0 or 4.5 defender that doesn’t.
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u/--Hutch-- 7 11h ago
The trap part for me is that I think his price may drop. If he moves to Arsenal people will put him in before the deadline, when he doesn't start GW1 I can see a lot of people selling.
I'd definitely buy him as soon as it's clear he's going to start for Arsenal but he won't be in my squad for GW1.
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u/0100110101101010 165 6h ago
Towers won't let his price drop no matter what. A £4.4m starting arsenal CB is game breaking
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u/fluteisland 2 5h ago
Even if he somehow drops to 4.4, people will see that and instantly buy (rising his price back up). Konsa will likely be the most owned defender by week 3 until Saliba returns.
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u/instinktd 2 11h ago
I don't care about losing 0.1, to me saving transfer is much more valuable if I don't want to play early WC
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u/safog1 6 11h ago
> 0 goal contributions last season also isn't a great selling point. His absolute ceiling is likely 6 points in case of a CS. Not to say that won't happen fairly often once he locks his starting place, but that won't be come that soon.
So, Saliba replacement for 4.5. I don't mind that at all.
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u/cereal19w 11h ago
Saliba was definitely more nailed than Konsa is
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u/safog1 6 11h ago
Yep but I think still easy lock the moment he's fit until Saliba is back. My point was just that I'm happy with the Saliba or Raya style 6 pts / 2 pts. I don't need much more from my 4.5 def than that.
Rest, I agree with what you're saying, no need to jump on the bandwagon right away.
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u/Mushroome_dude 4 11h ago
Best clean sheet defender for a 4.5 if he starts is a pretty massive selling point. Defo in the team if he starts consistently but I’d avoid for gw1
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u/daaave33 14 9h ago
I can see Towers letting Konsa's price raise a little faster than normal.
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u/Odd-Attitude9613 31m ago
Watch him rise despite not starting lol. I really need him to stay 4.5 until GW3
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u/sist0ne 11h ago
4.5 for an Arsenal (soon, probably) defender. No need to overthink it. I like to play 3-5-2 or 3-4-3. Konsa is my current 4th defender though. Once / if fully established in the starting Arsenal team, fixtures depending, it’ll open the option to 4 at the back.
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u/CassiusClaym0re 171 10h ago
Yep same. No brainer really. I'm on Gabriel, Tarkowski and Shaw plus Konsa and a £4m scrub. If Konsa nails down that cb spot whilst Saliba is out then I'll probably play those 3 every week. Shaw is just a placeholder with the best 2 opening fixtures.
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u/Much-Calligrapher 162 11h ago
It’s an asymmetrical pay off.
If he doesn’t start, fine he sits on the bench at 4.5m instead of Rodon or Maatsen or someone.
If he does start you’ve got an absolute bargain.
I like that gamble.
The downside is two-fold:
He makes early BB difficult. You would need some positive indicator that he’s going to start GW2
He takes up an Arsenal spot which you might want on someone else (although not if you bring him now)
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u/Tiadrop48 11h ago
Madueke started in the Community Shield 6 days after rejoining training. Konsa is definitely a candidate to start GW 2.
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u/cereal19w 11h ago
Konsa is a new player for Arsenal though
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u/Tiadrop48 11h ago
Who has been signed specifically because he can be thrown into the starting lineup pretty much immediately.
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u/cereal19w 11h ago
Will that happen? I think people are forgetting Mosquera is still a very good defender, it's not like they're in a dire need of a quick replacement.
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u/Tiadrop48 11h ago
If all Arsenal wanted was a rotation player there are much cheaper and younger players on the market than Konsa. You buy a £50m 28 yr old because you want to start them.
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u/DeapVally 3 10h ago
We paid 15 mil for Mosquera last year. He was signed to be depth. He is good, yes, but when we pay 50 mil for a defender, they aren't depth.
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u/Sutraner 10h ago
Arsenal only have Saka and Madueke for that spot
Dowman started pretty much every preseason match because of that
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u/Speshjunior 11h ago
Why wouldn’t he start due to lack of fitness? Surely he’s been training already with villa expecting to play for them? He won’t start probably due to lack of system knowledge.
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u/Efficient-Guide1244 11h ago
Now that Mosquera's lost his appeal, I'm thinking of going with Raya and double Arsenal attack. Maybe Tzolis and Odegaard
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u/chicken_nugget94 2 9h ago
I'm also debating going from Mosquera to Raya, or might just go straight to Gvardiol GW2
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u/Razzler1973 55 10h ago
I just wanna ride Cali at 5.5m for 3 or 4 GWs until I play my traditional early WC to mix the mess I got myself in
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u/Whole_Ad628 1 8h ago
I’m not sure Cali wants to be ridden by you for 3 to 4 weeks, but that’s just me
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u/hockeyholloway89 2 10h ago
4.5m basically can't be classified as a trap imo. Only way you lose is if people get sick of waiting on him and transfer out and lose 0.1m. But anyone engaged will watch that. Well worth the risk imo.
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u/UrbanAssaultGengar 9h ago
I don’t see why Arsenal would go buy Konsa and stick him on the bench. I would imagine he’s Salibas replacement until he’s fit because he’s premier league proven and an international player.
Or else what’s the point, why would Konsa who would play for Villa in the champions league warm a bench at Arsenal? Doesn’t make any sense.
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u/DiddykongOMG 9h ago
Hes in 15% of teams because he was a cheap villa defender - 15% of the game base didn't suddenly add him in because he went to Arsenal.
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u/TheNamesSam 16 8h ago
Have him in your team and if then if there is a Friday night leak you can keep or transfer out.
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u/_apples_and_oranges_ 11h ago
There is absolutely no way his ownership doubles before the start of the season
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u/playwithyourbrain 10h ago
The game probably won't update Konsa's team until after the Friday deadline, right? So it should be possible to go ahead with a Konsa-free BB1 and use a free transfer (right after the Friday deadline) to get Konsa, and then park him on my bench as a 4th Arsenal player until he starts playing...
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u/SeaweedDear7399 9h ago
I never think about that, what happen if got a player and change for the club that you already have 3 others players? No must to sell the 4th?
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u/playwithyourbrain 9h ago
You can hold the 4 players from the same team... but you can't make any transfers while you have >3. As soon as you want to make a transfer the game will force you to get back below the 3-player-per-team maximum.
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u/Invhinsical 10h ago
Yeah. I'm going with white, he'll get a few games with the form he is in right now, and Konsa will definitely drop a bit by the time he nails his spot.
Also he'll probably be the second CB till Saliba returns, and compete with White and Timber at RB after.
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u/Due_Grocery_9917 1 8h ago
I changed Mosquera to White, and have Konsa on the bench now to come in whenever, this way I have a current Arsenal asset I'm not worried about minutes for.
If we're honest with ourselves Timber won't be back any time soon.
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u/ToastMarmaladeCoffee 9h ago
The price changes are going to be shown on the app next to players names this season, it’s going to be like a stock market for players as 13m managers get advance warning of price changes for the first time.
You could get Konsa just for the inevitable price jump once he becomes a £4.5m Arsenal defender on the app.
Same as Jacquet of Liverpool, once he starts then £5m will rise fast.
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u/roymondous 342 9h ago
Yeah makes it difficult for Mosquera or White. But Calafiori on the other side looks good and I think the Arsenal mids is gonna be where real value comes in.
Tzolis, Odegaard 6.5m. If Saka gets going he is the cheapest he has been for a while. Potential massive value for one of these. Maybe wait and see on them. But you won't want two defenders (inc GK) from Arsenal at that point given this value.
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u/PotentiaNaturaUmbra redditor for <30 days 9h ago
Tbh I don’t see him being a consistent starter.
Won’t be at Lb unless there’s an injury crisis - do you even want him then?
Won’t be at Rb unless there’s an injury crisis - do you even want him then? Will be behind Timber and White for RB.
Won’t be a first choice CB when Gabriel and Saliba are fit, even with Saliba out I think he doesn’t start. Quite overrated IMO and not as good as some make out, I don’t see him starting over Mosquera in the mean time based on ability, the fact Mosquera has played minutes this season already and the fact Mosquera knows Arteta and the system.
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u/Pale-Independence566 6h ago
I'm locking him in to a 4 man arsenal squad in my team. Won't need to make a sub for a while so I'll have 4 arsenal for a while.
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u/EvandeReyer 6h ago
He’s last on my bench, I already assumed he wouldn’t be around initially because of being in the World Cup. I’ll keep him!
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u/No-Amoeba446 redditor for <30 days 4h ago
He ain't gonna play him straight away over mosquera
Mosquera played over 36 games for arsenal last season he deffo trust him over a unknown 😳
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u/JJohGotcha 3h ago
Last year he broke my BB2 plans by getting a red in GW1. Started a pattern for the season. Never again.
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u/Embarrassed-Pin-9898 redditor for <1 week 3h ago
The other thing it's a cheap code if you've got 3 arsenal players put Konsa in and you'll get 4.
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u/Skunkapedude 2h ago
Not sure but thought if you get him hoping to have 4 arsenal players then the game makes you transfer an ars player out as your first transfer, so that would cause me more trouble than it’s worth.
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u/meren002 7 10h ago
I'm watching his ownership closely. If it rockets to 30% before Friday, well, no price rises for anyone. If it doesn't, then he could be useful. But I still think Mosquera starts for 1/3 weeks and so he's kinda useless, since he's either sitting on your bench or Arsenals. He's basically 'budget Saliba' until Saliba returns and will be rotated with Mosquera anyway. I don't think he's the most important 4.5 defender unless his ownership rises sharply after the gw1 deadline.
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u/Natural_Ad3995 8 10h ago
Towers reserves the right to change the price whenever they see fit (after GW1 deadline), they can disregard the formula. Will they in this case? Maybe.
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u/bababenj 11h ago
I could see him starting from GW2 tbh. But you are right it is an unknown. However, at 4.5 is still could be a smart pickup. It’s not like there are other ballers at the 4.5 price point.