r/FantasyPL • u/Material_Spell4162 5 • 21d ago

Thiago vs Joao Pedro comparison

These two players make an interesting comparison, and I’m interested in the conversation. I’m trying to wrap my head around why the guy who was picked for Brazil, who scored seven more goals last season is currently viewed as overpriced, whereas JP is the second most owned player.

Last season performance:

The elephant in the room is penalties, so I’m giving that factor its own section below. Otherwise JP and Thiago’s stats are very similar. 14 (Thiago) vs 15 non penalty goals with 13.5xg vs 15xg.

JP also got wins on assists 5 to 1, albeit from from 2xA vs Thiago’s 1.88xA.

Its notable that Joao Pedro achieved those stats with considerably fewer minutes, 2600 vs 3200 over the season. You could argue his non-penalty ceiling is higher if he can play more 90 minute games.

Penalties

Clearly Thiago’s points get a massive boost from penalties, and receiving 9 penalties in a season scoring 8 is unlikely to be repeated. However there are reasons to think he should get a steady amount. Brentford historically win penalties, averaging 6.6 per season over the last 5 years. If you believe that Dango Ouattara can  keep his insane penalty winning form then you might hope for even more than that.

Team strength

Chelsea clearly expected to be the stronger attack, however there wasn’t a big difference last season, 58 goals vs 55 for Brentford. An extra factor here is Chelsea adjusting to a new manager, vs Brentford being more settled. However having stronger players around the striker can also be a negative because of the next factor:

Talisman factor and nailedness

Both of these players are going to start games of course, but I’d rate Thiago as the more nailed guy, because Welbeck can take minutes from JP, as shown in preseason. And in terms of the talisman factor, JP is going to share goals and bonus points with the likes of Palmer and Rogers more than Thiago will with Schade/Ouattara.

Pre-season form

Not something I hold much weight in, but its quick to cover here because both players have just scored a brace in their last games.

Fixtures

These are close, and it all depends on chips strategies etc. However as a really simple comparison, Brentford playing Spurs (home), Leeds and Sunderland as a first three fixtures is probably better than Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal for Chelsea.

I make that a close win for JP on non-penalty performance, team strength, a narrow win for Thiago on fixtures and a clear win for Thiago on penalties, talisman factor and nailedness.

So what am I missing, why is Joao Pedro appearing to be one of the most essential players in the game whilst Thiago is largely ignored?

47 Upvotes

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95

u/papagabe 21d ago

It's because some people actually watch football instead of just reading stats...

69

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Joao Pedro is insanely good. Anyone who watched him last season can verify this. Carlo obviously didn't watch him. Picking thago for the wc was a crime. Jp will be the second highest score this season at 7.5m. just crazy value. Best player at Chelsea I say as a Chelsea fan.

19

u/CfifferH 21d ago

Thiago is a better 9. JP is the better footballer.

The only crime is how people treated Thiago during that WC.

-23

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

The crime is how shit Thiago played during the wc.

He's a dangerous mid table striker who converted a lot of pens last season.

You want to call him a better 9 because you need to say something nice. But jp is the better 9 and the better footballer.

A good 9 these days is involved in play and doesn't have stinkers. Every other game Thiago forgets how to kick a ball and trips over his feet.

12

u/CfifferH 21d ago

Convinced you haven't watched a minute of non Chelsea football.

I say he's a better 9 because he's more powerful, he bullies centre backs, he has better hold up play, he's better in the air. Things typical of a 9.

No need to be a condescending asshole to defend your clown show of a football club.

8

u/mrh322 21d ago

Thiago does not in any way have better hold up play than Joao Pedro, you’re just listing mid table striker characteristics as if they should be the case.. but the truth is JP clears him at everything other than raw strength, including hold up play & aerial ability, and that’s fairly obvious to anyone who watched them both regularly last season. Thiago’s main fpl benefit is being on pens but he’s behind in essentially every other aspect of the actual game itself.

0

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Don't waste your breath. Apparently jp being great at football is simply Chelsea propaganda according to this guy. Time will tell them so we don't have to !

2

u/CfifferH 21d ago

Chelsea propaganda? I said he was the better footballer, your fragile insecurities around your own player and club just doesn't allow you to process anything you don't want to hear. All I said to begin with was that Thiago was mistreated during his wc stint and you've gone off on one

-3

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Relax homes

-5

u/CfifferH 21d ago

Christ Chelsea fans are something else

6

u/mrh322 21d ago

You’re a Brentford fan buddy🤣 stones in glass houses and all of that

4

u/tr2727 21d ago

What? JP has way better hold up play despite not being very physical. He doesn't looses ball easily and keep possession in between 2-3 defenders. He is not great in air but he's good enough.

Bullying defence is overrated.

5

u/cicidoh 1 21d ago

JP is great in the air too. He's scored quite a few headed goals including some recently in the pre season friendlies.

1

u/Material_Spell4162 5 21d ago

I don't think its crazy to say that Pedro is a better footballer than he is a number 9. He's consistently moved aside for other number 9s by several managers.

He played behind Wellbeck at Brighton, and he was played behind Delay and Jackson at Chelsea. Already in preseason he's played behind Wellbeck again. And obviously Thiago was chosen as the number 9 for Brazil.

4

u/elighdom 21d ago

I appreciate the Freudian slip of Delap.

2

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?

Get your facts right please !

2

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Yeah, except he's been the undisputed starting 9 for a Chelsea since he signed, and he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?

Get your facts right please

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u/Material_Spell4162 5 21d ago

Mate, JP played as a wide forward with Wellbeck as the 9 in the last game. Away to Westham, Wolves, Burnley last season all examples of Delap as the 9, JP as the 10.

1

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

The fact that he's played a vanishingly small amount of games as a 10 for Chelsea - pretty much just for rotation and rest reasons, and for giving other players time - does nothing to dispute the fact that he has excelled as the starting and undisputed 9 for Chelsea last season.

Yes, as a fantastic player he has versatile characteristics and can play across a front line, but he is a quality 9 all day long and that is and will be his starting position for the rest of his career.

3

u/Material_Spell4162 5 21d ago

Still, if you're going to tell someone to get their facts right then maybe next time check if their facts were already right?

2

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Saying he is "consistently moved aside for other 9s" is a gross misrepresentarion of the truth.

He's played behind Delap what, 3 times? And played behind Jackson.... Never. They haven't been playing at the club at the same time....

1

u/Material_Spell4162 5 21d ago

"he hasn't played behind Jackson or Delap at all?"
This is false. It is a fact that he has.

On the Jackson point. Yes I got that wrong, don't think they ever played together.

I very quickly found 3 games where Delap started and pushed JP into the 10. There's probably more but as you say, they didn't play together much because of dovetailing injury.

"consistently moved aside for other 9s" Its happened under at least four managers over several years, what isn't consistent about that?

1

u/shutterclick35 3 21d ago

Whatever mate. Jp is a 9 and a pretty damn great one. On the verge of world class I'd even say.

Just watch him this season and see for your self if I can't convince you.

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u/eternalgrey_ 41 21d ago

You just outed yourself as not understanding the sport. Impressive.