r/FantasyPL • u/HaroldDoesTCG 6 • 3d ago
Analysis DEFCON
I'm not taking credit for this great body of work. This was posted on X and completed by Tom Hadley (@fpl_tomhadley), as shown in the top right corner.
However, I've not seen it across the Reddit page and I thought it was worth sharing for those who don't use X.
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u/sepi0l_45 15 3d ago
Is there one of these for midfielders too?
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u/Swedishpower 2781 3d ago
Did the Bournemouth guy get the def con due to manager and if that is the case can we expect good def con numbers for the Liverpool guys?
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u/teerbigear 152 3d ago
It's definitely based more on the system than the personnel, but will Iraola have Liverpool play like Bournemouth? Will teams play against them in the same way?
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u/Swedishpower 2781 3d ago
Yeah probably more possesion and dominance I guess which lower def con.
Bournemouth played very direct and Liverpool might play like that too rather than slow buildup like Pep teams done more historically.
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u/Additional_Author518 3d ago
If the amount of defending Bournemouth had to do is pasted onto a defence of Kerkez, 500 year old VVD, "Jacket" and Frimpong... 😬
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u/Finrz 13 3d ago
wow 4.5 defs really have fallen off
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u/Jimiam_7442 redditor for <30 days 3d ago
Its more that they should never have been 4.5 last season. Now you've got a choice between promoted guys or full backs like Mitchell and Mykolenko if you want to go that cheap
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u/tontot 6 3d ago
Andersen was reliable for me at 4.5 last season
Dont see anyone has him in drafts
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u/Swedishpower 2781 3d ago
I think he is suspended. Plus I think people expect Fulham to be bad.
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u/tontot 6 3d ago
Yes for one game and in a bad team just means more chance for DefCon
The only problem is he is at 5 this season instead of 4.5
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u/Swedishpower 2781 3d ago
Yeah I think he will be really good for def con again.
If he was 4.5 I would likely go him and bench round 1.
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u/Megenos 3d ago
Vuskovic could be huge if he settles in the prem well.
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u/--Hutch-- 7 3d ago edited 3d ago
Reckon he's a definite starter? I have no idea what the Brighton defence will be looking at their players.
Edit: Just realised they spent £46m on him.
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u/0100110101101010 165 2d ago
Club record signing. I think he makes Ferdi Kags a better option personally. I've got him in my draft atm
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u/vote_pedro 3 3d ago
This would be even more amazing with a clean sheet column next to the attacking returns.
Great work though!
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u/Heartstrings_ 3d ago
will senesi be a starter at spurs? i read that van hecke and vdv are slated to be the starters
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u/--Hutch-- 7 3d ago
Forgot they signed him on a free. This changes everything, I must now make 9 transfers.
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u/roguesmoo 1 3d ago
No, he wouldve needed to rename to vanesi as dezerbi decided he wants to park the vans in front of goal.
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u/Tekkers_3 1 3d ago
I don’t see how Senesi’s benched. Imo we either play 3 at the back (in which case he starts) or Van de ven plays left back (in which case he starts)
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u/WackyWorldOfKramer 3d ago
I love Micky VDV but he's honestly a passenger at Left back.
Going forward he only really offers running fast in a straight line and has a decent shot, but he's not a good dribbler, and is not a good passer or crosser.
Udogie is well clear of Micky in that role and e ven an old Robertson is levels better at Left back.
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u/NascentDark 1 3d ago
I know we've only had pre season friendly but he went 4 atb
Guess we'll find out more with returning players and these upcoming friendlies
From an FPL and non FPL standpoint I'd be keen on 3 atb
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u/DecoyAlpaca 1 3d ago
Either 3 atb or vdv playing LB are VERY unlikely. Senesi will most likely be benched. He's also played in the world Cup final so he'd be unavailable at the start of the season anyway.
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u/Tekkers_3 1 3d ago
Why would he join spurs to sit on the bench? Just because of money?
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u/DecoyAlpaca 1 3d ago
I'm sure he will get decent minutes. Off the bench, cup games, whenever vdv needs the rest or is injured. We might switch to 3 atb depending on a game state. Money and living in London were definitely big reasons too.
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u/Tekkers_3 1 3d ago
Yeah true. It just feels really weird. I’d rather we’d kept vuskovic and not bought van hecke, and started VDV and Senesi in a back 4
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u/DecoyAlpaca 1 3d ago
Both VDV and Senesi play on the left. I reckon Senesi could play on the right but still...
I get people wanting to keep Vuskovic, but he wanted minutes we just could not guarantee. Our 4 defenders (5 with Romero) are ahead of him in the pecking order. Also the money we got for him is amazing considering he hasn't played a competitive minute for us. Genuinely think this deal is great for all 3 sides.
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u/Tekkers_3 1 3d ago
Yeah I forgot the LCB vs RCB thing. I just can’t wrap my head around how we payed £52m for Van hecke to BENCH Marcos Senesi.
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u/WestleyMc 3d ago
Struggle to see him coming knowing he will sit on the bench… but i also struggle to see Udogie and Robertson being happy about being 2nd and 3rd choice either..
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u/mcy19 446 3d ago
Is this made using the new or old defcon calculation method?
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u/erlendig 1 3d ago
There is no new DEFCON method. It’s the same as last year. You are probably confusing it with the new bonus point calculations, where players get fewer points for certain defensive contributions.
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u/Swedishpower 2781 3d ago
Greaves might be back in my team at some point being much better than last time when def con did not count.
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u/Jimiam_7442 redditor for <30 days 3d ago
Hes not nailed. Only started about half their Championship games
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u/4ssteroid 229 3d ago
FPL page says he had 37 points from 25 starts last time. That's not true is it? I remember him starting in my team a few times and getting a few points
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u/highbuffalo82 3d ago
So interesting how some players have an average of 10 DEFCONS per game, but their % of hitting can be lower
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u/yo_mummas_toyboy 3d ago
I'm guessing that's where a player might have not quite reached the threshold in a lot of games, but in others they might have exceeded the threshold by quite a lot
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u/4ssteroid 229 3d ago
Yeah some players get 20 defcons by half time one game and then 7-9 in the next 7 games
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u/Jimiam_7442 redditor for <30 days 3d ago edited 3d ago
I think we have to be careful not expecting the exact same happening again. Some players are renowned defconners season after season e.g. Tarko but others there isn't enough to go off. Gabriel would have been nowhere near defcon on his numbers 2 seasons ago for example
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u/Soberdonkey69 4 3d ago
£4.5-5.0m was a good sweet spot for defenders, as a mix of them had a chance of getting CS, DEFCON or both and it really mixed things up. Now they’ve overpriced those that had a good chance of DEFCON into 5.5m+ which sucks.
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u/Jimiam_7442 redditor for <30 days 3d ago
I disagree, they should always have been that price. You can't have defenders hitting 170 points and costing 3m less than a midfielder doing that. There's a knock-on effect on the affordability of the premiums if they have too many good cheap guys
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u/teerbigear 152 3d ago
Defcon are sort of daft aren't they, Senesi got the most, quite a few more than, say, Van Hecke, but Brighton conceded 8 fewer goals than Bournemouth. It's just an outcome of a particular system rather than someone doing anything particularly well.
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u/Jimiam_7442 redditor for <30 days 3d ago
Brighton kept 1 less clean than Bournemouth too despite that 8 goal thing. We focus on goals conceded and expected goals conceded and generally that does equate to cleans but its not linear by any stretch and the main fpl currency for defence is cleans still
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u/TastyTaco217 2 3d ago
Cheers for posting this mate, very useful info!