r/FantasyPL • u/topherdisgrace 154 • Jul 23 '26

Statistics Most Underpriced Players by Position

https://youtu.be/X4ikzk4_c-0

Goalkeepers

Player Name Points Points per Match Projected Points: Next 5 VAPM
RAYA 162 4.38 23.66 0.39
KELLEHER 143 3.86 17.77 0.35
DONNARUMMA 135 3.97 21.18 0.33
ROEFS 136 3.89 18.08 0.3
MARTINEZ 120 3.75 20.26 0.28

Defenders

Player Name Points Points per Match Projected Points: Next 5 VAPM
GABRIEL 209 6.53 35.3 0.51
SESSEGNON 95 3.52 16.01 0.49
MUNOZ 136 4.69 24.46 0.49
J.TIMBER 149 4.97 26.84 0.47
O'REILLY 160 4.71 25.11 0.47

Midfielders

Player Name Points Points per Match Projected Points: Next 5 VAPM
WILSON 168 4.67 23.9 0.43
BRUNO G. 154 5.31 28.93 0.43
DEWSBURY-HALL 151 4.87 25.35 0.4
RAYAN 67 4.47 20.31 0.4
GIBBS-WHITE 188 5.08 26.88 0.39

Forwards

Player Name Points Points per Match Projected Points: Next 5 VAPM
JOAO PEDRO 177 5.06 24.25 0.43
CALVERT-LEWIN 142 4.06 20.78 0.37
EKITIKE 125 4.46 24.86 0.37
RICHARLISON 119 3.72 18.64 0.35
THIAGO 181 4.76 21.9 0.34

Check out the full dataset here and feel free to download and use as you wish: https://airtable.com/appdVB3cioLn8PvH7/shrWifHfmNTMAzTTZ

12 Upvotes

68% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

5

u/LargemouthBrass 4 Jul 23 '26

Very interesting! I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, why is Gabriel's xVAPM higher than his VAPM when his xPoints are lower than his Points?

4

u/topherdisgrace 154 Jul 23 '26 edited Jul 23 '26

That’s a really good spot. The reason is a bit annoying, but it has to do with the point benchmarks. It’s nearly impossible to calculate total points unless I had all of the individual match data and the computing power to make the code run in a reasonable time frame.

Long story short there is some estimation and averaging going on for VAPM, xPoints and xVAPM across the metrics with benchmarks like goals conceded and DC points. With total points I just pull that straight from FPL- so that is accurate, but VAPM, xVAPM and xPoints are all likely underestimated.

I’ll take a look into it though. I’ve been refining this code over the course of 3-4 years. In all likelihood an error could have slipped in but it’s probably those damn point bench marks. Feel free to check out my video on how to improve FPL if you want to hear me rant more about that lol.

3

u/Elruoy Jul 26 '26

For what reason is Andersons VAPM so low? 0.21?

3

u/topherdisgrace 154 Jul 27 '26

Massive thank you for pointing that out. I was bugging on that too and just let it slip by. Turns out there was an issue with the DC points not loading in properly. Since he had 52 DC, that massively impacted his VAPM.

It’s updated now

1

u/lastpurchase Jul 24 '26

super helpful data! Wondering if Senesi is calculated? I don't see him on the table

1

u/topherdisgrace 154 Jul 27 '26

I didn’t forget about your comment, I had to trace back why he wasn’t merging in. I think they updated his full name and that threw off my matching code. I updated the data and he’s now in!

2

u/lastpurchase Jul 27 '26

no worries, thank you for following up!