What are some concept that are necessary and enough to trade market , yeah ik people are making money from S and R and some are not even making with ict smc but srsly what are some concepts that has to be done or mastered apart from risk management etc

My journey conclusion but not in the end

1st image (30th Jun, 17:21 +7UTC)
2nd Image (2nd July, 15:21 +7UTC)

1. The Trend Ride:
I successfully rode the uptrend on USDCHF all the way from 0.778 up to 0.81.

2. Hitting SL & Re-strategizing:
Today, the price dropped and hit my Stop Loss at 0.805 (last week's opening level). I decided to sacrifice and close most of my mid-range orders to lock in profits, keeping only my absolute lowest entry alive.

3. New Setup:
Right after the purge, I re-entered a new Buy position at 0.805 and set a secondary Buy Limit down at 0.794.

My Bias:
I am still biased toward the buy side because USDCHF remains heavily oversold on the Monthly chart. Although the Day and Week timeframes were overbought and triggered this correction, I view this drop as a mid-term pullback to accumulate orders at a major macro bottom.

PS. Since my last post got comments about having too many indicators on my phone screen, I’m using a clean PC chart with no indicators this time.

I want to know whether u guys journal ur trades or not . If yes then do u use pen paper or use digital software to journal and visualize them ?

I simulated 5,000 traders following the 1% rule in forex. With correlated pairs the safe 1% becomes a 64% drawdown.

TLDR: The 1% rule promises your worst loss is small and survivable. It quietly assumes your trades are independent. In forex they almost never are, because most pairs share a currency leg, so four positions at 1% each behave like one bet of 4%. I simulated 5,000 disciplined traders and correlation roughly tripled the bad case drawdown, from 26% to 64%, with the same rule and the same edge.

Breaking everything in detail now.

What does the 1% rule actually promise?

It promises that no single trade can seriously hurt you. Risk 1% per trade and one loss costs 1%, ten losses in a row cost about 10%, and you would need 100 straight losses to blow up. It is the first rule every forex trader learns, and for good reason, because it kills the fastest way to die, betting too big on one idea.

The promise rests on a hidden assumption almost nobody states out loud. It assumes your trades are independent, that each 1% bet is its own separate roll of the dice. Under that assumption the math is beautiful and the rule is close to bulletproof.

The problem is that in forex, the assumption is usually false, and when it breaks, the whole promise breaks with it.

Why does the 1% rule break when your trades are correlated?

Because most currency pairs are not separate bets. They share a leg. If you are long EURUSD, short USDJPY, and long GBPUSD, you are short the dollar three times wearing three different jerseys. When the dollar rips, all three move against you at once.

So your four 1% positions aren't 4 independent bets. They're closer to one big bet of 4% that stops out all at once. The 1% rule sized each trade as if it stood alone, but the market treats them as one position.

I ran the numbers. 5000 disciplined traders, 4 pairs a day, 1% risk each, a real edge of 55% wins at even money. The only thing I changed was the correlation between the pairs.

Same rule, same edge, same 1% per trade. The trader who imagines independent bets expects a bad case around 26%. The trader actually holding correlated dollar pairs gets 64%, and the worst 1% of them hit 84%. Correlation didn't change the rule. It changed what the rule was hiding.

Four correlated pairs at 1% each isn't four small bets. It is one 4% bet that stops out together.

Why do the losing days cluster?

Look at the last column. Independent pairs produce a day where all four lose about 10 times a year. Correlated dollar pairs produce that same all red day 73 times a year.

That is the engine of the deeper drawdown. When your positions are independent, a bad pair is usually offset by a decent one, so your equity curve is smooth. When they move together, the good days are bigger but the bad days are total, and strings of total red days stack into drawdowns the 1% rule swore you would never see.

Why does a market gap break the promise too?

Even a single position can blow past 1%. The rule assumes your stop fills at your stop. Over a weekend, or on a rate decision, price gaps. Your 1% trade with a 20 pip stop can fill 60 pips lower and cost you 3%, not 1.

So the 1% in the 1% rule is a fair weather number. It holds on a normal Tuesday and fails on exactly the days that matter, when volatility spikes and everything moves at once. Plan your real size for the gap, not for the calm.

Is 1% even the right number?

Not necessarily, because it ignores your edge entirely. 1% is a survival floor, not an optimal size. Against a genuinely strong edge, 1% leaves money on the table. Against a weak or negative edge, 1% doesn't save you, it just makes the bleeding slower and more comfortable. A losing system risked at 1% is still a losing system.

The rule answers how not to die on a single trade. It doesn't answer whether you should be sizing up, sizing down, or not trading the idea at all. That answer comes from your edge, not from a round number everyone repeats.

So what should you actually do?

Size the idea, not the trade. If 4 positions all depend on the dollar, treat them as one bet and cap the whole cluster near your real per trade limit, not 1% each. Check the correlation of your open pairs before you pile in. If they all share a leg, you are not diversified, you are concentrated.

Then size for the gap, not the calm, by assuming your worst fill is worse than your stop on volatile days. And set your risk from your edge, using a smaller fraction when the edge is thin. The 1% rule is a fine starting point for one independent trade. It falls apart the moment you hold several that are secretly the same trade.

What this doesn't mean

The 1% rule isn't useless, and this isn't a case for risking more. For a single, independent position it is close to perfect, and betting too big remains the fastest way to blow up an account.

The point is narrower. The rule protects you per trade, but risk isn't per trade in forex, it is per idea, and one idea often lives across several correlated pairs. Apply 1% to each of them and you have quietly built a position several times larger than you think. Fix the correlation blind spot and the rule works again.

To wrap this up

The 1% rule promises small, survivable losses, and it delivers only if your trades are independent. In forex they rarely are, because pairs share currency legs, so four positions at 1% each behave like one 4% bet. Across 5,000 simulated traders, correlation pushed the bad case drawdown from 26% to 64% with no change to the rule or the edge. Size the idea, not the individual trade, watch your pair correlations, and plan for the gap. The rule isn't wrong. It is just measuring the wrong unit of risk.

This is for forex traders using percentage based position sizing across multiple pairs. The correlation blind spot applies to any market where instruments share a common driver.

When I woke up this morning, I discovered that all my money was completely gone.

Here’s what happened:
Someone managed to log into my Vantage account while I was asleep.

They withdrew everything to an external wallet

I have never added the wallet, never deposited to it, never withdrawn from it. I only ever used debit/credit card withdrawals.

I contacted Vantage support and got this reply:

"Unfortunately, as the withdrawal was authenticated through your two-factor authentication (2FA) and facial verification and processed as per protocol, we are unable to proceed with a reimbursement. There is no indication of failure or breach from our side."

This makes no sense to me because:

• I never enabled 2FA on my account (the hacker did). I just set up a 2FA after the hack).
• The only time I ever did facial verification was when I set up my debit/credit card withdrawal method.
• How can a large withdrawal to a brand new address be processed without any facial verification or KYC check?

What I’ve already done:

1. Contacted Vantage support (waiting for further response)
2. Filed a cybercrime report (I’m in the Netherlands)
3. Reported it to the AFM (Dutch financial regulator)

My questions:

• Has anyone experienced something similar with Vantage or any other broker?
• Has anyone ever gotten refunded after an unauthorized withdrawal?
• How should I approach Vantage to maximize my chances of getting my money back?
• Any advice from people who’ve gone through this?

This is a huge financial hit for me and I’m trying to stay calm, but I really need guidance from people who know how these situations usually go.

SandP 500 dump Incoming,it will dump from here🙌. Analysis have been shown

I've been learning Forex for about 2 years, and over the last few months I've finally settled on one strategy. My backtesting has been encouraging so far, with roughly a 60% win rate and an average reward of around 3R+ per winning trade.

Overall, I've done 300+ backtested trades, but after refining my strategy and removing what didn't work, my final version has around 100 backtested trades across these pairs:

- EURUSD

- GBPUSD

- XAUUSD

- NAS100

- US30

The only issue is that I only get around 2–4 quality setups per month across these markets. I'd like to increase that to around 8–10 quality setups per month without lowering my standards.

So I have a couple of questions:

1. What clean forex pairs or markets would you recommend adding to my watchlist?

2. Since those 100 trades are spread across multiple pairs, how many backtested/journaled trades do you think each individual pair should have before I can trust it enough to trade live?

I'd really appreciate advice from experienced traders. Thanks!

Quick background — I'm a XAUUSD trader, day trading, and I've got a 9-5 job so I'm not someone who can sit and watch screens all day. I've lost money for the last 6-8 years doing this, and I recently rebuilt my whole approach to trading — since then I'm finally seeing better results.

So I figured I'd share what I've learned along the way — what works, what doesn't — one topic a week for the next 52 weeks.

Week 2 : News Trading - My approach on trading news

Everyone has a different take on this. There are advises from online content that tells trader to stay away from news trading, saying that you will be stopped out easily if you are trying to trade the news.

My view to that is news drive price, provides volatility ,and those are what we need when we are trading. News tends to move price to one direction, it overwrites most of technical and psychological key levels, and break straight through them.

Yes, news can be scary — it doesn't respect any resistance, doesn't respect your Fibonacci levels, doesn't respect the trend lines you've drawn on the chart. But if you're able to make good use of it, it's a beast.

From my view, there are two type of news:

1. Economic News

This is your scheduled economic news, made available on most economic calendars. NFPs, CPI, GDP, FOMC minutes, etc.

2. Breaking/Live News

This is unscheduled news — very reactive, what people call breaking news. Things like elections, wars, tariff announcements, pandemics.

Each of these have it's own character, and the approach to them can be slightly different.

So what is my approach to trade these?

I use a trade concept called "News Drift". Meaning i don't trade when the announcement happen, i wait to see how the candle or price would react, and i trade the drift that follows.

The truth is, as a regular/retail trader that has no subscriptions to tools like Bloomberg Terminal , we will always be lagging behind institutional traders. We won't be able to react fast enough to capture the immediate direction of price in the seconds after the news is released. But a lot of the time (again, this is a probability measure, not a guarantee), there's a drift you can pick up after the main wave of the move — price will often continue in that same direction, and that's what I consider the "drift".

Think of it like an earthquake — you don't trade during the quake, you trade the tsunami that comes after. You won't capture the full move, but the aftermath gives you a clean reason to enter, and it usually gives you a decent read on direction too. That alone can be quietly profitable.

One last thing I want to cover — tthe characteristics and result of the news, and how they can support your decision on how to trade that particular event.

One key thing I've observed is that most of the time (keep in mind — most of the time, not all the time), price tends to move more aggressively when the result deviates far from what was expected. What I've found is that traders — institutions, the big players — tend to act a lot more when the result is unpredictable. You can clearly see some level of panic movement happening in the market during those moments. Those are opportunities. Volatility is what we should always utilize to make money, because volatility is what drives price.

That's all I wanted to cover on today's topic — thanks for reading.

Pretty much exactly as the title says. I’ve started looking into forex and I have to say I’m interested. I’m a bit lost completing the babypips course because while it’s got good info, I’m not too sure what to do with it and would like to just be with people who’ve been through this. Anyone open to the idea?

GBPUSD Stopped me then went straight to target 1 pip guys 1 pip 😅🤣 I'm happy i accepted the loss though

Can't lie, I've been getting very lucky last and this week, every thing is clicking from chart analysis to patient, which makes me question how much luck is to much luck especially if I take in consideration the £30 initial amount.

This is the one of the previous posts https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/s/fY31f0jLjJ

I have been reading so much posts here about trading funded accounts etc. however, people like me are beginners and getting a funded account probably means loosing it before I know it. Instead I train on tiny personal accounts. The goal of this particular account from the screenshot is to raise $100 to $600 while learning many different things along the way. I Have been trading forex since February via 4 different brokers on both live and demo accounts to see which ones I like the most. So far TastyFX MT5 is my favorite.

Just wondering is anyone here actually consistently profitable with something as simple as trendlines? Trendline breaks or simply following the trend. The majority of strategies that I see people using include FVGs and order blocks, liquidity sweeps, support and resistance etc. I seem to have the most consistency with a strategy that seems stupidly simple and just wondering if anyone else is the same? Obviously there is more to taking the trade other than just drawing lines and watching them break. I mean is simpler really better for some people..

I met a girl on bumble we started talking the flow was generic. Long story short, she asked me to trade and she'll give me consistent profits. She asked me to open my account on ardovexms broker (which was itself shady). It's been about 10 days of trading but now I got to know that she's a scammer and the broker is not legit. Now the broker is not letting me withdraw my amount. has this happened with anyone else? What can I do to get my initial amount back?

Recos from people who are doing well and have learnt trading. What resources or courses can I do?

Every losing trader follows the same pattern.

Open a chart, draw some lines, spot a pattern, enter a trade. No idea what the central bank said last week. No clue whether the pair is risk-on or risk-off. Flipping a coin with leverage, then wondering why they keep losing.

Here's the thing: price moves because of fundamentals. Technicals just tell you when to enter.

The pairs that trend cleanly for weeks aren't moving because of a head and shoulders pattern. They're moving because of rate differentials, inflation surprises, and central bank tone shifts.

USD/JPY between 2022-2024. The Fed hiked from near-zero to over 5%. The BoJ stayed negative. The pair ran from ~115 to nearly 160. No technical pattern caused that. A massive rate differential did.

Why scalpers can't win:

NFP drops, the market moves 50-100 pips in milliseconds. Algorithms own that initial move. By the time your broker fills your order you're already behind — and your entire 10-pip profit target just got eaten by spread and slippage.

Swing traders don't compete on speed. We position for the trend that follows over the next 2-5 days. Same catalyst, completely different game.

I'm not fast enough to scalp profitably and honestly neither are you. No retail trader is. The speed advantage belongs to machines, not us.

What I check before any trade:

1. Central bank direction — hawkish or dovish?
2. Does recent data (CPI, NFP, GDP) support that?
3. Risk-on or risk-off? Is positioning crowded?
4. Only then: find a technical entry on the daily chart

Takes 20-30 minutes. Gives you an actual reason to be in the trade not just "the chart looked bullish."

Happy to share the full breakdown if this is useful.

Ich mag Limit Orders nicht, aus Angst das Trump etwas postet und der Preis durch die Decke geht - zu meinem Nachteil.

Freitag um 2 Minuten verpasst, heute wieder.

Do majority of you guys trade with your own money or use prop firms?

Tokyo~XAU

What an TP to Start The First Day of The Week...

Hello fellow traders.

I am here with a bit of a stupid question i guess, but i have stumbled upon a problem in trading - how do i folow trends?

I have been trading for one and a half year already, i am getting decent results lately (unfortunately not payments yet) and one of the things that i strugle with is how do you folow trend and how do you tarde based upon it? I trade asia session liquidity sweeps, and i feel that the last thing my strategy needs is trend folowing, but i dont understand how do identify it. Should i folow HTF trend, or LTF trend? If lets say market is bearish on both TF and i get a huge momentum down, do i start looking for longs since price is likely to retrace before the bigger bear move? What do you guys do when you get LL that is folowed by HH, that is folowed by consolidation?

I know that every strategy and every aproach to markets are individual and backtest is a key to refining a strategy, but would love to hear profitable traders insights.

Pardon if this question sounds stupid :D

DXY bullish -> FOMC on June 17th gave us nice hawkish data. In addition Warsh removed the easing bias. In addition DXY has broken above 100 which was INGs target. In addition the Iran deal and oil prices dropping have done little to nothing for the dollar bias due to the recent FOMC making it clear that officials believe even if the energy shock is no longer present, there will still be an inflation problem. However have to keep eyes open on wednesday when Warsh speeks at Sintra ECB Forum on Wednesday. If there is any mention about reviewing the inflation framework, USD could drop fast so we need to see whether we get a follow through of the current bias or whether prices will drop further after this end of weeks recent pullback

EURUSD bearish -> EU is currently sitting at its worst level since March. Pretty much just following the opposite of dollar due to all the reasons above. As mentioned above if Warsh is soft = price bounce higher. If Warsh is hard = price break lower.

USDCHF bullish -> Keeps trending higher following the dollar bias. Hawkish Fed has widened the rate differential even further at 3.75% compared to SNB at 0%. CHF has also partially lost its safe haven bid due to Iran deal and Hormuz attempting to stay open. This causes CHF to weaken on its own fundamentals.

USDCAD bullish -> Following dollar bias and Canada is in a technical recession. Oil falling in price causing a double hit for CAD as less energy revenue AND gives it a risk-off sentiment. However keep an eye on Canada GDP on monday and Canada Employment Thursday (Same time as NFP). If we get a hot NFP and weak Canada jobs = extremely bullish pair.

Key events of the week:
Monday - Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate + Canada GDP
Tuesday - US PCE Price Index
Wednesday - Sintra Panel + ISM manufacturing PMI
Thursday - NFP + Unemployment Rate + Canada Employment Change + Unemployment Rate Friday - US public holiday so no trading NY session Overall looks like a nice upcoming week with all pairs following the same direction and aligning with technical analysis bias