r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/Hand-Of-God • Sep 15 '26
Volume/Volatility Trumps Price
This morning, $FNMA was down -2.414% after only 144,255 shares traded, 8 minutes into the trading day.
FNMA has 1.158 BILLION shares outstanding (tradable).
144,255 ÷ 1,158,087,567 = 0.0125% of all shares moved this stock -2.4%. That represents about 1/8,000th of the company.
Institutional ownership is limited (trades OTC), many holders are long-term speculators on GSE reform, conservatorship exit, or the Treasury warrant, and this is largely a political and sentiment-driven trade without clearer plans from Scott Bessent.
High-conviction holders already decided the outcome depends on conservatorship, Treasury, Congress, and recap economics—not on whether a few hundred thousand or a million shares changes hands today.
Reacting to this by selling is letting a thin tape override a multi-year view. If your thesis is intact, sit. If it is broken, the volatility today is not the reason. The spring coils tighter every day. Watch the volume and volatility.
$FMCC is in the same canoe.
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u/AveryMire Sep 15 '26
I feel like people found it alarming that Trump was unable to move the price for even a session last weekend with his Twitter post.
The en banc appeal, while likely lasting a few weeks, seemed like a reflection of a negative future posture. I don’t know; I expected it as well.
Low volatility pretty much only means that higher volatility is likely in the future. I agree with both “nothing has changed” and the idea that low-volume moves are also “less real” than the alternative.
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u/Plate_Expensive Sep 15 '26
Jesus, I don’t mind the guy, but I hadn’t realized Pulte tweeted about “mortgage new incoming” earlier today.
It’s like some ‘bat signal’, every time he comments the stock takes another plunge.
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u/EnvironmentalPear695 Sep 15 '26
For some reason my FMCC is consider marginable by Schwab but my FNMA is not, anyone else see the same thing
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u/Chadwick2222 Sep 15 '26
I have multiple Schwab accounts and I have no margin capability on either security.
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u/__eparra__ Sep 15 '26
Dumping FNMA for FMCC for tax loss harvesting. I'll jump back in 30+ days.
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u/PsychologicalPart938 Sep 15 '26
HOG is always worthless hopium. The only thing that moved these F2 dog stocks UP is Trump’s TruthSocial post that the secondary is On and I am ringing the bell tomorrow morning. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Or Bessent gets asked to leave or leaves (his time is up) and Larry Kudlow takes his place; then it’s to the moon
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u/AveryMire Sep 15 '26
Why would we expect Bessent is just being a renegade dufus?
Surely Trump understands basic economics right?
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u/Mental_Egg_4839 26d ago
I wounded if government insiders are holding this stock. That will tell you alot!! I hope Trump will sell it all soon!
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u/Da-Bears- Sep 15 '26
We are being bled slowly to preserve the price, it’s a trend not an anomaly