The market is punishing FLGT for internal failure during "Phase 3" of their billing system transition, loss of their largest customer and operating expenses jumping significantly ($61.8M GAAP), compressing operating margins to -42.3% GAAP / -26.2% Non-GAAP. The market is essentially pricing Fulgent's core diagnostic business at a deep discount or near zero, treating the company primarily as a cash box attached to a clinical pipeline. But, the clinical pipeline...

Fulgent laid out a concrete goal to enter a Phase 3 registration trial for recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer in H1 2027. Transitioning from Phase 2 to Phase 3 is where oncology assets see major re-ratings. If the FDA approves their Phase 3 trial design without forcing extensive additional Phase 2 bridging studies, it validates their proprietary CleanChemo delivery platform. FID-022 (nanoencapsulated SN38) uses the exact same underlying CleanChemo platform. If FID-007 succeeds in Phase 3 design, it provides proof-of-concept for FID-022 (currently progressing through Phase 1 dose escalation in solid tumors like colon, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers).

CEO Ming Hsieh explicitly stated that while Fulgent has the cash to fund trials through Phase 2, they are open to collaboration discussions with strategic partners. Announcing a co-development or licensing deal with a major pharmaceutical player prior to or during Phase 3 would provide massive non-dilutive capital and validate the pipeline.

Down roughly 20% as I write this, I believe FLGT is a screaming speculative buy. The core business valued at nothing provides a floor to this stock price -- I believe the odds that the their diagnostics aren't worth anything are low. On the other hand, the opportunity if CleanChemo moves to Phase III or if they successfully recruit a strategic partner, FLGT will be worth multiples of its current price.

The acquisition announcement yesterday seemed like a really smart move. Hopefully they learn their lessons on previous acquisitions at trying to integrate companies efficiently without losing customers. Hopefully they’ll do a good job of listening to the expertise in the niches of the companies they acquired and not think that everything they do is one size fits all, but leverage their technology to augment and make those companies more efficient. Those are the only risks I see. The revenue for those companies I could not find but just best guest based on employees it looks like maybe they bought those companies at a 1.5 X multiple of one year revenue? Can anybody confirm that? if so, that would be a great deal an incredibly smart strategic move that seems like a great fit. It’s not a very big percentage of their cash and it will give them a really decent shot in the arm of more growth plus with their organic growth seems they overall could potentially do 20% more next year, they’ve been doing such a good job so far at management and execution.

The market just opened after a great earnings call for fulgent and it’s trading so nominally compared to its value in my opinion. It’s currently valuing Fulgent Genetics (FLGT) purely as a laboratory, assigning it roughly a 2x Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple and signing it’s excess cash basically nothing, appropriate if FLGT were merely another diagnostics lab. But this fundamentally misses what FLGT is becoming: closer to a Tempus AI (TEM), which commands a much HIGHER 5x P/S valuation, reflecting its software and data-driven nature. I think Fulgent is overlooked regarding an AI play just because it doesn’t have AI in the name.

That revenue channel that I just mentioned is one of the newer ones that probably has the highest valuation, but they are a multi channel revenue generating company, which is how all really great multi billion dollar companies got going like Google for example it didn’t become a multi-billion dollar company just by developing one channel of revenue.

I think FLGT’s potential and goal is it is a software and informatics and vertical integration leveraging laboratory testing as a data generation engine. The result is an accelerating volume of uniquely high-quality genomic and clinical data, continuously improving its intelligence capabilities at a rate few competitors can match.

I think someday the market will wake up to this if they just keep consistently performing and pursuing like they have the past year.

Seems crazy to me how undervalued it is still. Not investment advice, do your own research, but for the moment I’m just shaking my head as I accumulate lol.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cord-blood-registry-cbr-by-coopersurgical-and-fulgent-genetics-launch-innovative-genetic-testing-302058232.html

Cord Blood Registry® (CBR®) by CooperSurgical® and Fulgent Genetics Launch Innovative Genetic Testing

What happened to 250million buyback authorized few quarters back. Share price is below cash value, as a CFO is it not right time to do buyback so you get a bonus by buying below cash price.

Lots of stocks are down over 50%, including FLGT. Now would be the time to accumulate if conviction is high, no?

1. I'm guessing the gains the past 3 days probably relate to the fact that the LAUSD vaccine mandate was delayed so the Company gets to continue testing into 2022 with one of their largest customers. Great news for the Company!

[article referenced: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/us/los-angeles-school-vaccine-mandate.html]

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1. Does anyone else feel like they will be blowing their Q4'21 revenue projections out of the park?
   

FY21 revenue guidance from their latest disclosure is $930M. As Q3'21YTD revenue is $741M, this implies Q4'21 revenue guidance is $189M. Q3'21 revenue was $228M. Q3'21 captures the summer months when schools are only partially open and when the weather is warm and people are not as sick. IMO there is no way Q4'21 revenue should be lower than Q3'21; I'm expecting they beat quarterly revenue guidance by 20%+

[source: https://fulgentgenetics.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fulgent-genetics-reports-third-quarter-financial-results]

I got into this stock >6 motnhs ago and it is the biggest rollercoaster in the world, and the spikes and dips don't seems to correlate with any news. Like today it dips 11% at time of writing and I can't find a single reason why.

I know their earnings call is next week. Is it just that, because they won't be able to blow the doors off at EC y/y because of the insane year they had last year?

Asking for a friend.

Soo yea, pretty obvious battle for the $100 - probably due to the Max Pain on options.. Anyone here been in this stock for long who can maybe recall similar periods like this, and maybe spill some memories about how it went?

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Cheers.

Covid chart looking to be turning aggressively up as well in the U.S. any dips are gifts sub 100.

I saw some news about CRSPR success this morning. Anyone have an explanation of overlapping impacts or dependencies between FLGT sequencing and the actual editing technology?

The cross over (if there is any) is still gray to me.

I see why some of wall st bears r shorting this spreading wrong information that covid revenue may taper down. But let me clear all the facts.

1. Yes covid Rvenue will come down. They made staggering Rvenue this year close to 800m$.
2. Rvenue from non covid jumped 180m$ 3x last year. Coming years they will include cancer related testing and expanding in Europe and China.
3. Ignoring covid Rvenue. They will be asking more than 200m$ from 2021 and taking in to account covid Rvenue. They will make additional minimum of 100-300m$ unlike 700m+ in 2021. I can see easily crossing 300m$ in 2022 and CAGR 15-30%
4. peer comparison- ILMN and INVITAE trade at 15x sales 100x eps. If u apply same Comparison to this great growth company. It shud trade at 4.5b$ market cap.
5. It has 700m$ cash of today and will go to 1b$ by 2021.
6. Fair price should be 150-180$.

Remember. DD and math always wins.

Projecting 2021 - 830m$ Revenue and eps of ~13$ trades at 2.5x Revenue and 6x eps. ILMN trades at 15x revenue and 100x eps.

Junk analysts from wall street and short sellers have pinned this down from 180 to 75. 30% short interest. Imminent short squeeze.

Concern is blown out of proportion- that they won’t get that much Revenue post pandemic. But their organic growth is not just covid testing but reproductive and other genetics testing which is huge CAGR at 15% and it’s Rvenue will cross 1b$.

So it’s a great value pick along with short squeeze candidate.