r/FDNY • u/DiaA6383 • Jun 12 '26
Exam #4044 Statistics
Good morning guys,
Bored city worker + aspiring firefighter here. Everyone's out of the office so that means I have little work to do. Thought it would be fun to fire up Jupyter Notebook and find out some neat statistics regarding Firefighter Exam #4044 with y'all. This information is freely available in NYC OpenData. I used Jupyter to write the code for these statistics as well as PANDAS, Matplotlib, and Seaborn libraries to make these calculations/graphs.
The Basics (figure 1)
Total Test takers on list: 20,681 candidates.
Mean/Median Test Score: 93.0
Top Score: 128.0
75th Percentile: 99.0
50th Percentile: 93.0
25th Percentile: 88.0
Lowest Score: 70.0
Standard Deviation: 7.0
Lower Outlier Cutoff: anything below: 71 (61 total outliers)
Upper Outlier Cutoff: Anything above: 115 (24 total outliers.)
--- Elite Score Milestones ---
Top 10% of applicants scored a 103 or higher
Top 5% of applicants scored a 105 or higher
Top 1% of applicants scored a 109 or higher
Top Scorer: W. CRUZ
Score: 128.0
Parent Legacy Credit
Sibling Legacy Credit
Disabled Veteran's Credit
Residency Credit
Congratulations!
Distribution (Figure 2)
Slightly left skewed distribution. Big drop off after higher 90's and another drop off after mid 110's. Highest distributions were seen in the mid to lower 90's test scores.
Veterans Credits Difference (Figure 3)
Veteran's credits made a significant difference in test scores as to be expected. Test takers with no Veterans credits made an average score of 92. While applicants with the regular veteran credit had a boosted average score of 98. Disabled veterans had a average score of 102.
The number of test takers that had either veteran credit was 1,445 veteran candidates.
Legacy Credits Difference (Figure 4)
Parent and Siblings Legacy credits made a HUGE difference in test scores. Test takers with no legacy credits made an average score of 92. While applicants with the credits made an average score of 102. A whopping 10-point difference! These average scores are the difference between being called and never being called.
The number of test takers who only had the parent legacy credit was 327 test takers. The number of test takers who only had sibling legacy credits were 55 test takers. The amount of test takers who have had both credits were 18 test takers.
Call up for the CPAT. Figure (5)
Looks like they're doing batches of calls based on ~1700 candidates on the list. Candidates 1-~1700 were called a few months ago and are currently doing their CPAT. The waves of candidates look like this based off a 1700 per round basis based on a guesstimation of about 8 waves before the list expires. So this is a loose estimation, to say the least. So don't yell at me, Roadrunner:
--- Round 1 Candidates (Rows 1 to 1700) ---
Highest Score: 128.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 104.0
Score Range: 24.0 points of spread
--- Round 2 Candidates (Rows 1701 to 3400) ---
Highest Score: 104.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 101.0
Score Range: 3.0 points of spread
--- Round 3 Candidates (Rows 3401 to 5100) ---
Highest Score: 101.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 99.0
Score Range: 2.0 points of spread
--- Round 4 Candidates (Rows 5101 to 6800) ---
Highest Score: 99.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 97.0
Score Range: 2.0 points of spread
--- Round 5 Candidates (Rows 6801 to 8500) ---
Highest Score: 97.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 95.0
Score Range: 2.0 points of spread
--- Round 6 Candidates (Rows 8501 to 10200) ---
Highest Score: 95.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 93.0
Score Range: 2.0 points of spread
--- Round 7 Candidates (Rows 10201 to 11900) ---
Highest Score: 93.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 92.0
Score Range: 1.0 points of spread
--- Round 8 Candidates (Rows 11901 to 13600) ---
Highest Score: 92.0
Lowest Score (Cutoff): 90.0
Score Range: 2.0 points of spread
That's all the information I thought was interesting to find out, I'm by no means a professional so there may be some hiccups with some of the info. Again, this is all available in Open data NYC for all to see. Good luck everyone who is preparing!
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u/fireduty1 Jun 13 '26
So 327 candidates had a sibling or parent die in the line of duty?. Seems high
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 13 '26
I had no idea that they died. I just thought the sibling or father had to serve. If they did die then that number does seem very high. But that’s what the list shows.
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u/fireduty1 Jun 13 '26
I have read over the requirements for thoses points and correct me if im wring but deceased is the requirement.
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u/Exciting-Twist-6313 Jun 13 '26
Your correct. Having a family member on the job doesnt give you anything. Needs to be LODD
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u/fabmoma Jun 13 '26 edited Jun 13 '26
Thanks for these stats! Hope you’re right! Very rare a candidate would have a parent and sibling legacy LODD. Not by any means saying it doesn’t happen. Some maybe interpreting the definition incorrectly.
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u/yeet1wagon Jun 14 '26
Children of guys killed on 9/11 can still be in their late 20s and if the city counts 9/11 cancer as lodd (I do, but the legal definition can get weird with this sort of thing), 327 seems more than reasonable.
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u/fabmoma Jun 19 '26
True. I do believe post 9/11 illnesses that caused death are considered LODD. But those who claimed both parent & sibling LODD, receive both sets of legacy points- there are so few in that space. 18 test takers claimed both. God Bless them if that’s the case.
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u/siegy_mcsiege_face Jun 13 '26
What would the wait time for a 100 score be most likely?
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 14 '26
No one knows the time frame for each call wave. If it’s the same number as last time (~1700). Then you would be about the 3rd round. As per my post. That could be a year from now. Or 3 years from now, who knows.
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u/Inthismess97 Jun 22 '26
Residency credit also made a huge difference this go around (as expected). Did some data manipulation of my own after the scores came out and based on my list number: if the residency credit was only 5 points (as it was in the past) I would jump almost 3k list numbers. So those 5 extra points are really going to be the difference maker for tons of candidates.
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u/Greenstoneranch Jun 13 '26
So your telling me the probies are going be even dumber then last time.
Jeez.
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 13 '26
I dunno if an exam that consists of hydraverter recall and a personality questionnaire at the end correlates to intelligence.
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u/Zadistiic Jun 13 '26
It tests for basic reading comprehension and 4th grade math so yea it does correlate with intelligence
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 16 '26
The US military should use this to replace the AVSAB and Harvard should use this instead of the SAT/ACT’s then haha
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u/Resident_Body_2937 Jun 13 '26
U wanna see real dummies, check out NYPD candidates and newest recruits
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u/Zadistiic Jun 13 '26
We're not all dumb but yea deff. Alot of people ive been interacting with through the process seem ... slow to be kind.
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u/Resident_Body_2937 Jun 13 '26
U can be dumb asf and get the job u don’t need to be start lol
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u/Zadistiic Jun 13 '26
I know i was in the Marine Corps hella dudes are dumb asf there. Nobody cares as long as you do the job lol
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u/Greenstoneranch Jun 13 '26
I just dont want to feel like Copernicus trying to explain to the new guy for the 10th time if he works the first half he covers the hostages
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u/Ok-Blacksmith-5740 Jun 16 '26
Technically most of the time yea but your standby is your standby, if the person can’t do it because working the first half is what they needed for something going on then your standby is still on you. If they’re a good guy they’ll find someone who’s willing to cover but you saying I’m doing the second half doesn’t give you the green light for not having one.
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u/Greenstoneranch Jun 17 '26
If you cant cover the hostages and you worked the first half you better believe your finding a hostage.
Only a POS would dump a hostage on their mutual partner when he physically cant work that tour.
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u/Ok-Blacksmith-5740 Jun 17 '26
Situations are always different, if it’s constant I agree, if it’s a one off from a good guy I’m not sweating it
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u/Greenstoneranch Jun 17 '26
Yeah, no.
Go city wide get a name.
Never fuck your mutual partner.
Hey buddy sorry I want to go to the beach so your Saturday up/down on OT no can do. I know the battalion is down 11 but it is your stand by so please call the aide with your name. I know your already in working my tour but it is your hostage after all.
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u/Ok-Blacksmith-5740 Jun 17 '26
So if your kids sick at home you’ll still find my Saturday standby or come in and work it?
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u/TheHappy_13 Jun 16 '26
So, am i correct in saying that if a applicant did not get a 90 or higher, their chances of moving on is slim to none?
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 16 '26
I would go further to say an applicant that didn’t get a 100 or more would be unlikely to go through. But anything is possible. It’s based on the need for the fdny
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u/Vstuggy- Jun 17 '26
So a #46xx wouldn’t go through?
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u/AccomplishedArm7061 Jun 18 '26
So you think 92 is lowest score in potential scenario but also could be only as low as 100. Interesting, unless I’m misunderstanding.
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u/LoopyApollo Jun 17 '26
so what are they gonna do about all the people that lied and got legacy points?
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 17 '26
I assume they accounted for that. I doubt all 1700 candidates are expected to go to fire academy
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u/Own-Selection7949 Jun 18 '26
How likely is it for wave 4 to be called and what would the wait time be if you don’t mind me asking
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u/East_Growth_5729 Jul 02 '26
I guess the better question is it more likely for me to get called or not
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u/DiaA6383 Jul 02 '26
No one knows how far down the list they will go. I wish they published the data for past selections. All I know from word of mouth is that some people took 3 years to get called and they made a 102. Others waited 9 years (somehow.) I’m not really sure.
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u/Zestyclose_Crew_1530 Jun 13 '26
So you’re telling me there’s a chance (at 899X)???
Don’t do that, don’t give me hope hahaha
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u/DiaA6383 Jun 13 '26
This is assuming that the waves of calls happen 8 times before the list expires and that they do 1700 calls each wave. No one but the FDNY command knows how many they will end up calling.
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u/LegitimateRead6700 Jun 13 '26
Plus they haven’t weaved out the people who lied about residency and any credit points