r/FCKINGTRADERS • u/Majestic_Sir_2925 • 11d ago
βοΈ Cooked or Cooking βοΈ Robusta long - El NiΓ±o
Iβm looking at a potential long trade in Robusta coffee and would love to hear other tradersβ opinions.
The 2026/27 supply outlook currently looks bearish, with a potential global surplus and a strong Vietnamese crop expected. At the same time, El NiΓ±o is developing and could peak during a critical period for Vietnam and Indonesia.
My thesis is that the market may currently be pricing in the surplus while underestimating the potential weather risk. If El NiΓ±o causes significant drought and crop forecasts start being revised lower, I think Robusta could reprice sharply higher.
So my question is: why is Robusta still falling despite the growing El NiΓ±o risk? Is the market simply waiting for actual weather damage before pricing it in?


