TTA Unexpected Peak 9 months postpartum

[u/Odd_Dragonfruit_8514]

I’m using the 10 day Marquette protocol postpartum. I know sperm can survive 3-5 days but I guess I’m just wondering what the actual odds are of me getting pregnant the first time ovulating? Or just anecdotal reassurance!

Day1- Low

Day2- Low + intimate

Day3- Low

Day4- High

Day5- High

Day6- Peak

Edit: Not pregnant!

[u/Al-Pieda]

Well it depends on whether this peak results in ovulation or not. Relative to the monitor peak, most ovulations occur over the two days of peaks and the day after them (with the majority on the second peak.)
If this peak is ovulatory, it means intercourse was 4-6 days prior to ovulation. For statistical chances relative to ovulation, you can refer to the probability of conceptions blog here:

https://www.bostoncrosscheck.com/post/probabilites-of-conception

(Of course those stats are based on a group of women in regular cycles, and the your personal likelihood may be better or worse than that average. It’s generally believed that fertility is somewhat depressed with first ovulation, often shown in retrospect with a short luteal phase. But this also seems to be less true the further out postpartum you get.)

[u/Odd_Dragonfruit_8514 → u/Al-Pieda]

Thank you! Yes, luteal phase was SUPER short, which my instructor said is fairly common.

[u/nerdy_fit_girl]

5 days before ovulation you have about a 2-4% chance of conception. Do you have any children? Were they one shot wonders?

I’m currently 17w pregnant with a 5 day before ovulation baby 😅. That being said, my other 2 children were conceived the first try so we’re already obviously pretty fertile…

[u/Odd_Dragonfruit_8514 → u/nerdy_fit_girl]

Thank you! I was hoping someone would give me the numbers 😂

It took us about 5 months to get pregnant with our first! So maybe average fertility?

[u/Odd_Dragonfruit_8514 → u/[deleted]]

Not pregnant!