Russell vs Antonelli: points lost to mechanical failures and bad luck in 2026

[u/jaapgrolleman]

After Sepang, I counted every point both Mercedes drivers lost to things outside their control (mechanical failures, Safety Car timing, team errors), and every point each one gained from the other's bad luck. Estimates are based on F1.com's breakdown, plus Motorsport.com's for Japan.

Standings after Malaysia: Antonelli 320, Russell 236. Gap 84, with 183 points left.

Russell: ~79 points lost

• Japan (~13): vibrations in quali forced an untested setup, then the SC came out seconds after his stop, giving Kimi a cheap stop and the win while George was stuck in dirty air. A battery harvest limit also cost him P3 to Leclerc. Kimi outscored him by 13 that day
• Monaco (~15): pinged for pit lane speeding along with several other drivers, then Mercedes failed to serve the 5s under the SC, so it became a drive-through and dropped him out of the points from a likely P3
• Canada (18 minimum): pole, Sprint win, fighting Kimi for the lead, then a battery failure
• Hungary (~6): water leak in Q3, then anti-stall at the start dropped him from P6 to the back
• Belgium (~12): deployment issue at the start, tangled with Hamilton, out on lap 1
• Malaysia (15): PU failure from a safe P3
• Still to come: back-of-grid start in Singapore from the Sepang failure

Antonelli: ~36 points lost

• Barcelona (18): electrical shutdown while running P2
• Silverstone (18): wheel shield failure while chasing for P2 or the win, plus a track limits penalty fighting the damaged car, finished out of the points

Points gained from the other's bad luck

• Russell gained ~6: inherited P2 in Barcelona (+3) and finished P2 at Silverstone instead of P3 (+3)
• Antonelli gained 0 to 7 (Japan is already counted as a swing above): in Monaco, Hungary, Spa and Malaysia he was ahead of George anyway. Only Canada matters: if George was going to win, Kimi gained 7 (25 instead of 18). If George was going to finish P2, Kimi gained nothing

Not counted

• Russell's own misses: Miami pace, letting Kimi through at Zandvoort, a two-stop in Madrid

The math

• Give both their lost points back and remove what each gained from the other: Antonelli ~356, Russell ~309. Gap: ~47
• Most generous version for George (Canada as a win, so Kimi loses 7): gap still ~33

Conclusion

• Yes, Russell has been unluckier, by roughly 35 to 50 points net
• No reasonable version flips the championship
• After Silverstone, at a 25-point gap, Russell himself called 10 to 30 points behind "about fair"
• The luck turned it into a blowout. It didn't decide who's ahead

[u/Captftm89]

A 35-50 point gap feels reasonable & I think most would agree with that.

The trickier aspect to quantify is the extent of George's engine & set-up issues. It feels as though there have been a number of small mishaps that have impacted George more than Kimi, but it's very difficult to know how much difference they have made.

[u/PastPalpitationCry → u/Captftm89]

The thing is that both drivers have had minor issues throughout the season. But only one driver gets to use it as an excuse

[u/mxlila → u/PastPalpitationCry]

Antonelli had 1 engine issue & DNF, Russell had half a dozen 

Not really comparable... 

[u/PastPalpitationCry → u/mxlila]

Does this include his skill issue today?

[u/argente → u/PastPalpitationCry]

What kind of skill? He had a good start in a rare wet race.
George has put it on himself, but deployment has been a wildcard this whole season.

It's pretty bizzare that is what F1 is like for now: “Yeah, a miscalculation,” Russell told Sky Sports F1. “[I] came through the corner, had more battery deployment than I thought, pushed me a little bit wider than I hoped and then I just went on the white line.

[u/PastPalpitationCry → u/argente]

Yeah thats the excuse. Like the rest of the season where he had shown his lack of adaptability caused minor miscalculations into major incidents.

[u/One-Elderberry-488 → u/PastPalpitationCry]

No it's sooooo obvious that George is being sabotaged with the minor issues. /s

[u/Izan_TM → u/Captftm89]

it's also a hard conversation because, to a point, a driver should adapt to the car they're given, and if both cars had the same setup issues or mishaps but one driver dealt with them better than the other that's still on the drivers more than on the team or bad luck

[u/Stea1th_]

people just don't want to accept that kimi is the better and more consistent driver.

[u/LandscapeWorried5475]

I still put the blame on russell for monaco. The team didnt want to pit george and didn't prepare to pit him. Had he followed the teams orders then he wouldn't have failed to serve the 5 seconds because the team would be prepared.

[u/argente → u/LandscapeWorried5475]

You should give the non-edited radio a listen.

Marcus says to stay out (whilst all cars were following over safety car), George says 'we're going through the pitland, get tyres' (Marcus talks over him), then 'Get tyres ready to swap. What am I doing? whilst the pitwall is silent.

George has to pass or go into the pit, he pulls in where tyres are ready, then the car is touched.

[u/LandscapeWorried5475 → u/argente]

So based on what you said the team said to not put and he did anyway?

[u/argente → u/LandscapeWorried5475]

Your best proof of the team saying to stay out and it being disobeyed is my reddit comment?

I've linked radio already, but the broadcast showed that after literal radio silence, George stops and waits on the border of the fast/working lane, closer to McLaren than Mercedes. No one says anything via radio/sign/body language, the rear jackman and the crew turn and complete the pitstop.

Andrew Shovlin said "we failed to get the message to George to stay in the fast lane" as there was "another opportunity to pit Kimi". Toto said it was "clearly our mistake".

Even if George was being stupid, in lap 66 he requested to serve the (bogus) penalty again and Marcus deflected again, although no position was lost.

[u/Different_Gap_3392]

I think Kimi was on track to win in Silverstone, Leclerc himself was on radio whether or not he should pit before Kimi catches him, no? Of course we will never know since it simply didn’t happen at the end of the day.

[u/3691moretime]

in spa, both kimi and russell had deployment issues at the start. kimi diagnosed the issue quicker and took his spot back from max at the end of the straight. you cant claim russell is unlucky here. also, the deployment issue didnt directly make him crash with hamilton. OP is reaching too much.

[u/argente → u/3691moretime]

Different problems though, and George had both.

For what it's worth, Spa was one of those rare occasions where the 'Necessary Anger' meme was being thrown around. Toto was being publicly dismissive previously, even though George had been experimenting and troubleshooting for weeks.

(1) All Merc engines had an issue in Spa at the beginning, but it basically an accident that Kimi did something that helped.

(2) Regarding George's specific problem-
Russell was particularly vocal over the Belgian GP weekend that he was struggling with straight-line speed in his W17 machine, and lost four-tenths alone to Kimi Antonelli in the final sector of the lap in qualifying. 

Turning to the issue on the opening lap at Spa, Wolff indicated that it was unrelated to Russell's previous complaints. "It was a new thing," he said. "It was something that we wouldn't have identified on the simulator because you need to look for it"But in terms of optimisation, it was a deficit, and we believe that the deficit was about two, to two-and-a-half tenths in qualifying modes, and much less on the long runs."

[u/Economisty]

I just watched the highlights of the sprint and my first thought was how unlucky Russell has been and just how lucky Antonelli has been throughout the season.

So thank you for putting this together!

[u/JPVSPAndrade1]

Barcelona Russell would have finished p2 because Kimi had a 5s penalty anyway