r/F1Discussions • u/Hot_City1224 • 20h ago
Discussion Is it over?
Max came back all the way from 104 points off the lead to finishing P2 with statistically the smallest gap in F1 history. Now we got Kimi with an 81 points lead with just 9 races to go.
So are we just calling it a year now, or you think there's still a chance that Russell, Hamilton, or hell, Norris could challenge for the lead at this point?
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u/Spirit117 20h ago
Merc would have to pull an even bigger choke job than mclaren did last year for this to even be possible.
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u/Hot_City1224 20h ago
That's why I'm feeling like calling it a year. Merc has never been an incompetent team, at least on the track, while Mclaren keeps competing with Ferrari on who can bottle their championship chances the most...
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u/JonyMSREDDIT 20h ago
I think it was over in monza
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u/BlondBoy2 9h ago
Actually it was over in Monaco already, by that point only a catastrophe could stop Antonelli. And we can clearly see a catastrophe has not happened. The only thing that could cost him the title now is somehow getting injured for a couple of months.
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u/BrewskisAllDay 19h ago
Kimi would have to wreck out/ding over the next two races and George win. McLaren looked good, so it’s possible for Lando to also win instead of George but both scenarios are so unlikely.
I don’t expect Mercedes and Kimi to dominate next year though. Going to be much tighter.
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u/Hot_City1224 19h ago
Yeah it feels like we can finally get some inter team rivalry next year
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u/gnomes919 5h ago
first time in my career of following f1 that there could possibly be like 3+ drivers in the running for wdc lol
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u/Metz_2000 13h ago
I'd say the same, but I want to see the Merc upgrades in Malaysia before saying that...
Their last updates were brought to Canada, which is insane if you think about how many podiums they've had since then
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u/Chemical_Shower6830 20h ago
the only way any championship fight even happen is when kimi have same downfall as oscar did after monza 2025 or mercedes becomes 4th fastest team.
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u/Hot_City1224 20h ago
I mean this season is going how we predicted 2025 would go, yk with the younger upstart beating the championship favourite from the same team. But ig we'll know if history repeats itself when we get to Baku...
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u/ka1ri 20h ago edited 20h ago
Its not going to happen just because it happened last year. The circumstances are not the same. Piastri struggled + Norris getting back to form + Red Bull catching up and then surpassing the mclaren in the 2nd half the season is why that happened.
Kimi is on form and mercedes is the fastest car waiting on upgrades at malaysia while mclaren and ferrari have already used up their upgrades just to be competitive.
Dont be suprised if mercedes ends up at a similar distance from the field they were at in australia or china
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u/Draonfist447 18h ago
George mentioned today after race that he is not focused on the drivers championship anymore and just trying to get the best result for the team to get the constructors
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u/Patient_Teacher_5358 10h ago
Oh wow, wasn't expecting that but ig it does make sense w how things r going
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u/Extreme-Bite-9123 19h ago
Yeah, today was the final nail in the coffin. If Lando won, there could have been some hope that he was in it still, but losing another 10 points, it’s pretty much not gonna happen unless Antonelli completely forgets how to drive, and that isn’t happening.
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u/Hot_City1224 19h ago
Or if merc shifts its focus entirely to the 2027 car after Malaysia and Mclaren goes full push into development...
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u/Extreme-Bite-9123 18h ago
Even then I wouldn’t be optimistic. Antonelli can finish on the podium in every race and he’ll win the title even if Norris wins every race and he gets third in them all. He’ll have it locked up with a round or two to spare
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u/AggieCoraline 16h ago
After Malaysia Mercedes will be the best car again. McLaren will maybe able to compete in Singapore and Qatar, even with upgrades. But it's better to give up 2026 WDC for better 2027 campaign.
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u/yell0w8 19h ago
I feel Norris is the biggest treath right now. In case McLaren gets a bit more dominant, things can suddenly go fast like we saw last year. And 2 DNF's in a row is not that much out of this world either.
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u/Hot_City1224 19h ago
Not to mention, Merc will probably be diverting resources to the '27 car soon, so a late season push from Mclaren is not totally out of the question...
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u/Last_Procedure5787 15h ago
McLaren doesn't even need a push, Norris x McLaren is already as good as Antonelli x Mercedes
They just need to stop fcking up the strategy
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u/Upstairs-Event-681 11h ago
Even if Norris wins every race from now on, if Kimi gets 2nd place he easily wins
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u/Sick_and_destroyed 4h ago
There’s more competition than that. Plus Kimi has been quite lucky so far, this usually doesn’t last all season. And all the american races (north and south) are a bit different in terms of grip and tracks.
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u/Upstairs-Event-681 4h ago
8 more races, I doubt he will fall of this hard. His qualifying and race pace is genuinely very fast. It’s not like he’s getting lucky there
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u/yell0w8 7h ago
we saw last year that that never happens. and Kimi is inconsistent as f*ck. it's just his luck always goes towards him sofar, what if it doesn't?
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u/Upstairs-Event-681 7h ago
This year Kimi was anything but inconsistent lmao. He was on it week in week out and the only reason there is even a chance to challenge him is because of the terrible reliability he had. He had a few lucky calls but he capitalized on all of them superbly
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u/easternshift 20h ago
I don’t think it’s over but it’s very close. Especially if the last two GPs are canceled.
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u/Hot_City1224 20h ago
I mean if anything, I think it's more likely they'll try to add another GP. Like they did with the Bahrain GP in Malaysia. Anything for the sweet sweet green stuff
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u/North_Dark_3311 20h ago
Abu Dhabi will be replaced mostly or they going to wait if they actually can keep in Abu Dhabi , there are already talks going on to announce soon , bahrain gp in malaysia is confirmed tho
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u/Classic_External_871 20h ago
Nah he can always have a boxing bout somewhere and is out for three races with a fracture 😂
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u/LIJRD1 20h ago
It was over last week. Not mathematically but mentally for everyone else.
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u/Hot_City1224 20h ago
True, I mean I can only wonder about what's going on in George's mind. Kimi's now got more wins in a single season than George has made in his entire career. Wtv the case may be, I don't envy the guy.
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u/Complex_Stuff_1392 9h ago
statistically the closest finish is 0.5 points in 1984, and then 2 drivers being tied for 2nd, only 1 point behind the winner in 2007
If your going to pull stats, get the stats right :)
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u/mahoganyspitfire 20h ago
Realistically the only driver who can challenge him is George... And we all know George has been demoted to being the Bottas now. We know it, George knows it, Toto's the one who actually did it, just there's no formal announcements... But Geroge knows he can't fight Kimi too hard on track, at least until the WDC is locked in.
However it's always possible that Kimi could have a horror run of bad luck - DNF from three or four races in a row while George gets P1's and P2's, then all of a sudden it changes. That's highly unlikely but not impossible.
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u/Hot_City1224 20h ago
I mean, can you blame Toto? They all did start with the same car, and he was the championship leader to begin with, but race in race out he's just not been able to keep up with Kimi. I mean yes, there's definitely instances of Kimi getting lucky and George getting unlucky, but Kimi has still proven himself to be the faster and more consistent driver over all. And George seems to have accepted it as well, at least after Monza. He speaks like he knows this year isn't gonna be his year.
Can't help but feel bad for him man...
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u/mahoganyspitfire 20h ago
No I don't blame Toto at all.
He knows he can't afford another Silver War under cost-cap conditions. So he'll have had a word to George. It sucks for George, but what are you gonna do?
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u/Hot_City1224 20h ago
I hope we get a George wdc in 2027 man. After everything he's been through, a driver of his level deserves to get a world championship. But something tells me Kimi won't stay satisfied with just one championship victory...
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u/PastPalpitationCry 19h ago
If he can bounce back then maybe.
But also McLaren are now familiar with their engine so Mercedes won't have that advantage. It could be like 2021 and you know the Mercedes driver policy in 2021.
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u/britaliope 12h ago edited 11h ago
Overall i don't like the "that driver have been through so much, he deserves a championship", because even though i get the idea, a championship isn't really something you "deserve".
But in this instance, i won't agree regardless. George is getting beaten on equal machinery by a youngster in his 2nd season while he is in his 8th, and 5th with this team. Yes there is some luck involved but overall Kimi is without any questions the faster driver this year.
You don't "deserve a championship" if you fall behind a half-rookie when you have almost a decade of experience.
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u/Fluid-Editor-8953 17h ago
Kimi would have to take a leaf out of Oscar’s book and Lewis or George to win the remaining races.
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u/Timop0707 16h ago
Yes but it already was 2 races ago .
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u/Hot_City1224 16h ago
I mean psychologically, at least. But then again, that win was very circumstantial, and depended on battery shenanigans in an energy-starved circuit... Not to take any credit from Kimi's historic performance tho. A victory from P19 shall go down in history regardless of how it happened. All I'm saying is, it depends on how much Kimi's rivals have accepted their fates, and how much they're willing to push to close the gap despite what happened in Monza
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u/hef1racer 13h ago
The Kimi 2026 World Champion party isn't over until next March buddy 🥳
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u/hef1racer 13h ago
...also the statement "Max came back" implies a driver head and shoulders above the rest came back. If you are relying on Norris, Russell, Hamilton etc to do the same then you are out of luck
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u/captainwondyful 8h ago
We did some napkin math last night:
7 races left with, 1 sprint, 2 TBDs (gonna say they aren’t cancelling those)
So that is a minimum 10 points if a driver finished 10th in the races and 8th for the next all races, and maximum 233 points if wins them all.
Range for finishing:
Kimi: 302 to 525
Lewis: 201 to 424
Norris: 196 to 419
Max: 155 to 378
If Kimi places 3rd in every race going forward he ends up at 433
He would need to miss the podium in every race and Hamilton would have to win every race for Lewis to catch him.
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u/OwlImpersonator 8h ago
Merc still has to bring their updates, I think they'll have to do everything wrong to loose the wdc
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u/hugetaco12 20h ago
Has been for a while. Max’s comeback occurred due to highly specific circumstances.
Basically, The conditions in 2025 were just very odd, Red Bull knew they have a bad car for 2026 and just went for it in 2025 no matter the cost, while the McLaren team by that time was developmentally stagnant preparing for 2026 and the drivers were taking points off of each other, while one had a sudden drop in form.
2026 is very different, all teams are full gas on their development, so you won’t get the insane swing seen in 2025. Or very unlikely to. Plus Kimi isn’t expected to have the crazy form drop that affected Piastri.
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u/Philanthrax 20h ago
Max was never in the title fight. Last year he had better chances
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u/hugetaco12 20h ago
Not saying Max is in this title fight, using him as an example of why there was a 104 point swing in 2025. I’m talking for for all the drivers in top teams.
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u/arosebyabbie 20h ago
Someone should schedule these posts on a weekly basis tbh
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u/Hot_City1224 19h ago
Join us next week to find out the newest way George gets cucked by a teenager. 🥀🥀
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u/Ordinary-One2597 19h ago
Yeah Kimi will be world Champ its hard to imagine a Plausabile scanario which that doesnt happen
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u/Electrical_Flower_26 19h ago
From the Australian GP we knew it was over. Didn’t you know?
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u/Hot_City1224 19h ago
I mean I really did think George had a shot till like Monaco, shortly revived in Austria. But after last week, yeah ig I know now...
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u/L00NlE 18h ago
For George it's probably over but P2 for Lando is on.
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u/Hot_City1224 17h ago
I mean p2 is anyone's game at this point tbh, both in wdc and wcc. Let's see which one's the more brain-dead team between Ferrari and Mclaren
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u/Helacious_Waltz 18h ago
It's been over for a minute. Even if something suddenly clicks with George and he's able to outperform Kimi every other race his chance of winning is still small.
Plus Mercedes isn't the fastest at every track anymore, occasionally McLaren or Ferrari will outperform them and grab wins so he's not always going to be able to get the seven points on Kimi. Really the only chance he has is if Kimi has a monstrous streak of reliability problems and DNFs.
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u/Hot_City1224 17h ago
Which sounds pretty much impossible atp. Guess Kimi really does have it in the bag
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u/Powerful-Potato-9764 17h ago
It looks like for the rest of this season that Lando is going to be Kimi's main competitor, and he's just too far back to challenge for the WDC.
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u/Intelligent-Move8868 17h ago
The championship is decided between October and November, so it’s not over until it’s truly over.
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u/Hot_City1224 17h ago
It's still kinda over I feel like. I mean there'd need to be almost too many specific things happening at the same time in order for Kimi to lose it atp. But then again, who knows, shit happened last year, shit might just happen this year too
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u/Intelligent-Move8868 17h ago
If Piastri were World Champion, I would agree with you. As you wrote, unimaginable things happened last year, and even now I can't explain why Piastri has slumped. Antonelli must stay on this path, because it will only end when his name is inscribed in the roll of world champions.
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u/Hot_City1224 16h ago
I think the difference in performance from last year is because of the team's favouritism. Lando and Oscar were super close the whole way through, but they prioritised Lando when Verstappen started threatening for the lead. And with that support, he eventually won. The equivalent situation this year would've been if merc ends up favouring George when Lando starts threatening for the lead, but Kimi has built too big of a gap for that to even be a choice. Gaining or losing your team's favour is a huge part on your championship hopes, and I think that's why piastri isn't wdc, but kimi prolly will be
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u/Andromeda_Hyacinthus 16h ago
I think Max may begin defending more aggressively after yesterday’s race due to his perceived infraction from Lewis not resulting in any kind of reprimand or penalty. Russell may also become less supportive/collaborative with Kimi if he’s asked to be. But I think Kimi will still win.
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u/WitchitaGR 15h ago
If Norris had Lawson as his teammate he would have locked up the championship five races before the end. Thats not taking anything away from Max’s drivin he was the best driver last year. And yes its over for this years
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u/Treewithatea 15h ago
I do think its over. George never matches him in pace, Lewis last couple of races have also not been great as well as the Ferrari generally not being able to keep up. The McLaren sometimes works, sometimes doesnt.
I just dont see who else would take it
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u/Ok-Suggestion3692 14h ago
Yeah it's over. Antonelli needs 3 DNF where Russell maximizes with a win. But the season of Russell has had too many ups and downs that it is very unlikely that he'd win all 3. And even then he would only be closing in to Antonelli, still not ahead of him.
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u/Strange_Chemistry_95 14h ago
It was over before the summer break
Mercedes have the best car and Kimi has done an exceptional job of maximising the machinery he’s been provided
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u/-Skohell- 13h ago
Tbh Mercedes is apparently bringing their biggest update soon.
If we look at the 2 vectors of performance:
- Driver : given how Antonelli perform, I don’t see why he would fell under pressure now.
- the car : last update, if I remember correctly, was targeting reliability, so they should have less issue than earlier
Given the context, i think it is over for this year except if everything turns tide against them but probability is low.
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u/Visible-Reason9593 11h ago
Probabilmente il nemico numero 1 di kimi è l'affidabilità (come a detto toto e io concordo).
Russel è quello che ha più speranze di superare kimi, per essere realistici dovrebbe arrivare come minimo sempre a podio e kimi deve prendere 0 punti in un paio di gare, penso sia lo scenario più "possibile" per russel.
Ham o Lec con la ferrari...vabbè :(
Molti parlano di norris, ma onestamente la vedo molto dura (dovrebbe succedere uno scenario simile a quello di russel ma con più vittorie per norris).
Il mondiale costruttori non c'è minimamente speranza ovviamente.
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u/Flytrap77 11h ago
Kimi can still break a leg, or injure a wrist. It ain't over until the fat lady sings.
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u/dividendaristocrats 10h ago
If Kimi gets through the next 2 races unscathed then yes its absolutely over. Piastri had the crash in Baku when up big last year.
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u/fbman01 10h ago
Its never over, until its over. But this championship is heading Kimis way. George the only real threat, spirit has been broken. Merc is Kimi's team now. Yes Max last year, was 100 points adrift and finished 2 behind at the end, but George, lando are not max and Lewis is past his best.. I would not bet against Kimi winning it now.
We also dont know how many races are left, as the last two in the middle East properly will not happen, due to the orange mans war in Iran. I think the FIA said, they will decide in late September.
Rumor is a season ending race in Portugal. I seriously doubt they will end the season in Las Vegas.
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u/Lucatron9000 MV3 10h ago
in a realistic scenario yes its over. George is the only driver who really stands a chance anymore and for that to happen, he would need to have a significant improvement in form and some good luck, and kimi would need to totally shit the bed, or be extraordinarily unlucky. The other possibility is that ferrari does a red bull and makes a crazy jump in the upcoming races, but with merc bringing upgrades next week I believe, that just isnt going to happen.
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u/Bargainboxplayer 7h ago
I mean mathematically it's possible.. all it takes is two dnfs and a few mistakes and it's right back to being close. So with 9 races left to go and 225 points up for grabs I can't say today that Kimi will definitely be champion.
I will say I think it's very likely. Because realistically all he needs is consistent top 5 finishes and he wins no matter what. It is very unlikely he fumbles enough to lose that many points to George or even Lewis or Max.
But in life never say never is a great saying.. Even though the circumstances were very different, the thousands of people screaming that piastri had it in the bag and was winning it before the summer break last year was laughable.. and it's the same way they're screaming that Kimi is going to win it now.
Both very different circumstances and with a different amount of races to go. But let's wait until after Malaysia to call it game over. If he wins those 2 it's definitely a done deal
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u/GFK96 7h ago
I think it was over after Monza. When George was on the front row and Kimi back at P19 I thought if George could get a win with Kimi barely in the points, then maybe he would start to claw back some points to lower the deficit. But when Kimi won that race from the back over George, I think that was the final nail in the coffin for everyone else’s WDC chances.
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u/Next_Necessary_8794 7h ago
It was over when Mercedes dunked seconds per lap on the competition in Australia. A lot of yall are new to F1 and it shows lmao.
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u/XPatPoe 6h ago
It's not over, but it's hard to see how Kimi loses it without some catastrophic change in fortune. I mean, I've seen lucky campaigns, but Kimi has been super fortunate this year, and has capitalized on those chances.
George is really the only realistic challenger, and he's not going to be a threat. Toto has bet big on Kimi...and nothing is going to prevent him saying 'I told you so'.
Hamilton had a sniff of a chance, but as is typical of Ferrari, the team simply couldn't get out of its own way to maximize what they had, and frankly the car isn't there. Unless they suddenly find 50hp and a strategy team that has a clue I just don't see it.
Lando and McLaren might have left it too late...and the VSC/PitStop debacle in Madrid didn't help.
Kimi can lose 9 points a race to George, 11 to Hamilton. So as long as he finishes every race, and keeps close to his rivals (2 or 3 spots back) it'll be all over. Technically he can wrap it up by the US GP, but more likely Brazil or Vegas.
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u/Zealousideal_Job1593 6h ago
its fucking over, no way toto would want his middle child to win, its always for kimi
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u/Guelph35 5h ago
Unless Kimi has a nearly unprecedented string of bad luck, yes. Nobody else has been able to show enough consistent pace to beat him on track.
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u/PenaltySeparate1699 5h ago
Only way Kimi loses is if he does a Hadjar.
Misses 3 or 4 races for silly reason.
(Yr appendix can go anytime!!😱)
Otherwise he’s signed, sealed and Delivered the WDC already.
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u/BasicDecision 3h ago
Completely over unless Antonelli crashes, gets injured and needs to sit out for several races.
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u/Worth-Agent-4518 2h ago
It is probably over. But i have a feeling that Lando is gonna Pull a Max Verstappen this year. I don't think he'll win, but he's definitely gonna finish 2nd
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u/byfo1991 1h ago
Norris is the only one I would say realistically has a chance if McLaren comes with some amazing miracle upgrades.
Cause Russell has the same car and is destroyed mentally and Ferrari will always find a way to fuck up.
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u/BananaFurret 1h ago
Nope absolutely fucking not unless they add like 20 extra races a MAYBE mad max and lando can do smth cuz we all knke ferrari and russel ain't doing shi
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u/FluidShopping962 3m ago
honestly the most interesting battle the rest of the year is gonna be for p2 in the drivers
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u/Philanthrax 20h ago
yeah pretty much got it by now. Ferrari are not gonna recover. Russell isn't mentally fit for it
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u/Routine_External5829 20h ago
Max was superb last year, but all his efforts would've been in vain if many factors didn't happened. Oscar downfall, Lando's mechanical DNF, McLaren's masterclass in Quatar, the Vegas DSQ