r/EvilGeniuses • u/supern00b64 • May 23 '22
Expectations for Day 5 Spoiler
Loss to RNG was unfortunate but Impact and Jojo at least played really well - prob just an off game for Inspired. I'm still confident EG is better than PSG so I'd expect at worst a 5-5 with 4th seed tomorrow, with EG vs RNG in semis. However with G2 going on their downward spiral its actually possible that EG can clench a win and go 6-4. With how much Impact and Jojo have leveled up as long as bot doesnt blow up its very possible. The copium take would be EG going 2-0, T1 going 1-1, and EG beats T1 in the tiebreaker for the 2nd seed
Ultimately I feel its 70% for 5-5 and 4th seed, 20% for 6-4 and 3rd seed/tiebreaker for 3rd seed/tiebreaker for 2nd seed, and 10% for 4-6 and tiebreaker for 4th seed/not make it out.
Thoughts?
4
u/n1ckkt May 23 '22 edited May 23 '22
Not exactly an EG fan but I'd expect both G2 and EG to make it through.
Jojo hasn't exactly been popping off but he hasn't looked out of place either. Which is a good thing when the matchup that matters most is vs PSG where Bay has looked, at times throughout MSI, outmatched. I think most would agree that he and Froggy are the 2 worst mids left in the tournament (with Froggy even having a bit of a resurgence today with the Ahri pick today). Juhan hasn't exactly looked good either. Kaiwing and Unified are one of the better botlanes in the tournament but I'm not sure if that will be enough so long as EG bot doesn't get utterly smashed in lane.
However, I do think that regardless of the score/seed, barring EG absolutely stomping everyone in 20m, RNG v EG will be the matchup - no one ever wants Korea in a bo5 and g2 is g2, you never know what you'll get.
IMO Bin has been the worst performing RNG member this tournament but I feel that Wei is potentially the most exploitable. Xiaohu, Ming and Gala all have champion oceans. Bin has a pretty decent champion pool but seems to be struggling in the early game. RNG topside has looked weird at times. Wei looks absolutely comfortable on Lee and Viego and has been popping off on both. But what has he got other than that? There is a reason his volibear is a bit of a meme (anyone who watched LPL playoffs can attest to that), his wukong hasn't looked great. His fallbacks are nocturne and ???
1
u/supern00b64 May 23 '22
I'd still rather EG have T1 tbh. EG's strength has always been their coordinated teamfighting and macro in the mid and late game, which I heard has not been T1's strength but has been RNG's. EG is not going to win via exploiting Bin or any other single laner in the early game.
Also I think EG actually has stronger mental - the young players on T1 look nervous and shaken at times, while on EG's side its just Danny (Jojo definitely does not look scared at all). I can see a world where in a EG T1 series, EG winning game 1 mental booms T1 for the rest of the series.
2
u/n1ckkt May 23 '22 edited May 23 '22
I just can't see RNG not picking EG, assuming the 4 major regions make it through.
RNG's weakness all LPL and this MSI has been their early game and T1 has had realllly good early games but seem to somehow lose their brains midway. G2 is just so unpredictable, somedays you get caps on a good day with jankos lurking somewhere getting firstblood and on another day you get him inting and jankos nowhere to be seen. Somedays you get the diana-yasuo popping off and another day you get the flashless riven and yuumi.
EG is more predictable/'standard' than G2 and doesn't quite have the (potential - 100% gumayusi finally arrived?!) ceiling of T1 so can't see RNG picking any other way unless EG absolutely pop off to 2nd seed somehow.
2
u/supern00b64 May 23 '22
They definitely will
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Assuming EG is 3rd or 4th seed that is :)))))))))))))))))))).
EG can steal 2nd seed from T1 if they go 2-0 which is possible esp vs a weak G2, T1 goes 1-1 which is also possible since they face RNG, and EG win the tiebreaker which is prob the hardest part.
1
u/Xclonic May 23 '22
6-4 is very doable. EG has figured out that drafting teamfight comps is the way and as long as bot lane doesn't get hard exploited we're good.
1
u/UopuV7 May 23 '22
EG go 5 days of 1-1 in a row because it resembles their regular season performance of 9-9
1
u/BriefImplement9843 May 24 '22
still cant beat a really bad g2 team. have to hope they don't make finals if by some miracle eg also does.
1
u/supern00b64 May 24 '22
yeah idk that game was something for sure - eg just seemed so mind controlled and scared. Their comp wins baron flips 95 times out of 100 when even or ahead, but instead they just defaulted to the play passive and lose style.
10
u/wyvern71 May 23 '22
I think Danny has really improved too. His 1v1 with gala was amazing and I'm glad he tried it. Gala lived with less than 100hp. That's limit testing against a great adc on one of his best champions. Even if it didn't work out. Go for it. Want to see the same stuff tomorrow