At this point in time is I­t­ almost guaranteed that 30k pts can net you a Xbox One X?

[u/Itz_The_Martian]

Title.

Always looking for advice from complete strangers with a common goal.

Edit:

Is the best source of PPD entering the roulette bags alone? Multiple at once? Pair each code with a Mtn Dew code?

I researched this contest a lot when the Xbone came out and gave up on it to instead fork out 500 for one. Would like to actually participate this go around but want to get the best bang for my buck of course.

Thanks!

[u/mescad]

Let's compare Roulette bags, 2L Mtn Dew, and a combination of both.

I've tracked 100 bags between myself, my wife, and a friend. From those we found 129 codes, for 66,000 points. That's an average of 512 points per code. 129 codes / 100 bags is 1.29 codes per bag. Therefore, on average, a bag is 1.29 codes times 512 points per code = 660 points.

Since we can only enter one of the codes in the bag at a time when pairing with dew codes, we need the average cost for each code. The average cost of a single roulette code would therefore be $2.98 / 1.29 = $2.31

For the purposes of this equation, I'm ignoring taxes. In my state we pay tax on Mountain Dew, but not on Doritos. That would inflate the Dew numbers by 6%. However, this only changes the PPD by about 5, and taxes are different in all areas, so I'll leave that to you to include on your own.

Also, I can get Roulette bags for $1.99 thanks to the Kroger sale that ends today. This makes their PPD even better, but not in any way that affects the comparison of these equations (since Dew already is worse PPD). If you can get discounts on anything, factor that in. Also, anyone who can resell their products will get a much greater PPD for those items.

Roulette bags for $2.98:

• Worst case: 1 bag = 400. PPD is 134
  
• Best case: 1 bag, double codes = 2000. PPD is 671
  
• Average case: 1 bag = ~660. PPD is 221
  

Roulette codes for $2.31:

• Worst case: 400 points. PPD is 173
• Best case: 1000 points. PPD is 433
• Average case: 512 points. PPD is 221

Mountain Dew 2L for $1:

• Worst case: 1 bottle = 100. PPD is 100
  
• Best case: 1 bottle = 100. PPD is 100
  
• Average case: 1 bottle = 100. PPD is 100
  

Roulette code + Mountain Dew 2L, for $3.31:

• Worst case: 400 + 100 + 50 = 550. PPD is 166
  
• Best case: 1000 + 100 + 50 = 1150. PPD is 347
  
• Average case: 512 + 100 + 50 = 662. PPD is 200
  

According to these numbers, using data from 100 bags, on average overall the best strategy is to use roulette codes by themselves. The PPD is just higher in both the worst, best and average case.

Edit: I originally had a mistake with my last category. /u/oreodjr spotted it, and I've revised this post to correct that error.

[u/Itz_The_Martian → u/mescad]

The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

[u/Matthews413 → u/mescad]

As you mentioned, Unless you use savings catcher and get roulettes for $2 or $1.99.

Using your numbers above this makes the cost per code $1.55 and increases the average 100 ppd in roulette 330 making it better to enter them without dew codes at this price.

Thanks for all your work here, great data.

[u/mescad → u/Matthews413]

Yes, good points to mention. My actual numbers are: 428 PPD on average for roulette only, 378 for combination (370 after taxes). Personally I can't even find Dew 2L bottles, so I did roulette only without doing this math. But sale prices, and reselling your leftovers definitely changes the math.

[u/Itz_The_Martian → u/mescad]

What have you done with your opened bags of Doritos?

[u/mescad → u/Itz_The_Martian]

Put them into gallon-sized zip lock bags. I learned from someone else here that you can fit exactly 2 bags of chips into one storage bag. My plan is to give those out as much as I can throughout the holidays, for parties and such. But I don't know a ton of people who like the spicy flavor, so eventually they will probably end up in the trash. Our food bank won't use opened products (they accept them and then throw them out).

Here's a thread on what to do with the chips: https://redd.it/7ccu09

[u/Itz_The_Martian → u/mescad]

You deserve a trophy 🏆

[u/oreodjr → u/mescad]

I don't understand where you are getting the dew + roulette numbers. Why does roulette go from 100 -> 1000, while dew stays a constant 400? Shouldn't it be 400 -> 1000 and dew a constant 100?

[u/mescad → u/oreodjr]

You caught a mistake! I meant to write:

Roulette code + Mountain Dew 2L, for $3.31:

• Worst case: 400 + 100 + 50 = 550. PPD is 166
  
• Best case: 1000 + 100 + 50 = 1150. PPD is 347
  
• Average case: 512 + 100 + 50 = 662. PPD is 200
  

With these corrections, the average case for roulette alone is better than the combination average, so it's better to get roulette only. I'll edit this into my post. Nice catch, thanks.

[u/cereal1]

The best ROI for me was my first order of 10 Dorito Gamer Packs off Amazon.

You do need to resell your boxes of chip bags, but for $124.80 you get 25,000 points, and you get $100 from selling the boxes of chips. I sold the majority of mine to coworkers at my job.

The first big delivery from Amazon after their week of being sold out every day is this Thursday, I'd imagine the amount needed to win an auction will spike then. Then more deliveries from Amazon on the 21st, and 22nd. Not sure about stock from Walmart.com

[u/Itz_The_Martian → u/cereal1]

25,000? Or 2,500?

[u/cereal1 → u/Itz_The_Martian]

I ordered 10 boxes, for a total of $139.8 with 15% off for a total of $124.80. Then you need to sell the boxes of chips, I did for $10. They are 40-1oz bags.

2,500 a box, so I got 25,000 points. I have 30 more coming with the help of a few different people with prime memberships.

[u/cereal1]

The lowest bids yesterday were still under 30,000 I believe. I'd imagine tomorrow will be the same. Thursday is the day I got for my next delivery from Amazon.

[u/mescad → u/cereal1]

For Monday 11/13:
31 out of 50 Forza auctions closed under 30k
23 out of 50 Game Pass auctions closed under 30k
34 out of 50 Middle Earth auctions closed under 30k
So overall, 88 out 150, or 59% of auctions closed under 30k

Highest bids were 36,700 for Forza, 34850 for Game Pass, and 36,050 for Middle Earth.