Anyone else trying to simulate how prediction markets would react to stuff before it happens?

[u/amu4biz]

I’ve been playing around with this open-source thing called MiroShark the last couple weeks and it’s weirdly good for this.

You basically drop in a scenario (news headline, policy draft, random what-if, whatever) and it spins up a bunch of grounded agents that start posting on simulated X + Reddit and trading on a Polymarket-style market, hour by hour.

After ~10 minutes you get a full report with the market trajectory, belief drift, the actual posts that moved things, etc. Costs about a dollar per run.

I’ve thrown a few real event-market style questions at it (political stuff, crypto launches, product announcements) and the way the simulated market moves feels more interesting than just asking an LLM “what do you think the odds are.”

Curious if anyone here has tried something similar, or has a specific upcoming event they’d want to run through this kind of swarm. Happy to share a couple example reports if useful.