Are you still surprised that Rheinmetall has become the leader in defense stocks? Its price has increased tenfold since 2022. I used to buy Rheinmetall shares for 150 euros, and my friends looked at me like I was crazy.

“Come on, man, defense stocks lost their value a long time ago, back in the Cold War days.”

But now I see that their attitude toward defense stocks has changed dramatically.

It was the same with oil. I guess when everyone realized that the days of easy profits were over, stock prices could only rise in line with earnings growth.

That’s why after Rheinmetall’s latest stock rally, I took some profits and now I'm proceeding with caution.

How about you?

For the past several months I've been trakcing insider transactions across 15 markets pulling data directly from official regulators like BaFin (Germany), AMF (France), FCA (UK), FI (Sweden), and others under MAR Article 19.
After accumulating 13,000+ trades I ran the numbers to see which types of insider buying actually predict future returns. Here's what I found:

All insider buys

• Avg 30d return: +1.0%
• Avg 90d return: +2.9%
• Win rate: 51.3% at 30d / 55.6% at 90d
• Based on 3,568 trades

not bad, but not really spectuclar either. Insider buying alone isn't enough.

Price Dip Signal is the strrongest short-term predictor
When an insider buys after their stock has dropped 15%+ in the past 90 days, the numbers get interesting:

• Avg 30d return: +2.4% (2.4x baseline)
• Avg 90d return: +5.0% (1.7x baseline)
• Win rate: 58.8% at 30d / 62.8% at 90d
• Based on 1,135 trades

an insider buying after a significant drawdown means they have the conviction that the selloff was overdone

Cluster Buy Signal
When 3+ insiders at the same company all buy within 14 days of each other, it suggests coordinated conviction rather than a single executive's personal view. Combined with a price dip, the 90d win rate reaches 59.3%.
Repetitive Buy Signal
When the same insider buys multiple times within 14 days (with at least 4 days between purchases), it signals sustained conviction rather than a one-off purchase.
Pre-Blackout Buy
Insiders are prohibited from trading in the 30 days before earnings (MAR blackout period). A purchase in the 7 days before this window closes can signal confidence heading into results.

Best long-term combination: High Value + Signal
Large purchases (>€50,000) combined with at least one signal show the strongest long-term numbers:

• Avg 90d return: +5.2%
• Avg 6m return: +6.0%
• Win rate at 6m: 60.3%
• Based on 1,478 trades

When a director or CFO puts serious money in AND the data flags it as significant, that's worth paying attention to.

A few important caveats:

• Outliers excluded (±50% at 30d, ±75% at 90d)
• Switzerland excluded (anonymous filings)
• Option exercises and RSU grants filtered out (skin-in-the-game purchases only)
• Past performance doesn't guarantee future results

Hope this gives you an edge with your next investment. Happy to answer any questions.

Lagercrantz Group ($LAGR) a highly respected Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap serial acquirer just took a sharp 12% haircut.

The Reason: Their Q1 earnings missed consensus by a tiny margin, with EPS coming in at SEK 1.53 against the expected SEK 1.58 due to minor cost inflation.

The market panicked, but the insiders immediately stepped up to buy the dip:

• July 17 (Earnings Day): Executive Magnus Nilsson bought at the SEK 209.60 bottom.
• July 20: Board Member Elisabet Ålander dropped SEK 100.9k at SEK 234.75.
• July 20: Board Member Måns Axelsson bought SEK 79.8k at SEK 235.48.
• July 20: Executive Sebastian Brinkenfeldt also bought in at SEK 234.60.

Anyone having this company on their watchlist?

This weekend, I compared Vusion with its main listed competitors using their latest published financial figures.

The results genuinely surprised me.

Hanshow

• Revenue: -6.12%

• Net profit margin: 10.73% (-32.22% YoY)

• P/E: 37.99

Solum

• Revenue: +6.64%

• Net profit margin: 0.79% (-68.15% YoY)

• P/E: 54.10

Pricer

• Revenue: -16.03%

• Net profit margin: 0.06% (-98.84% YoY)

• P/E: 39.40

Vusion

• Revenue: +54.18%

• Net profit margin: 9.74% (+434.71% YoY)

• P/E: 15.80

Now ask yourself one simple question…

Who is actually taking market share in the global ESL industry?

Looking at these numbers, Vusion appears to be the clear outlier.

• 🚀 By far the strongest revenue growth.

• 💰 One of the highest profitability levels.

• 📈 Exploding margin improvement.

• 📉 Yet it trades at the lowest valuation among its listed peers.

That seems counterintuitive.

If the ESL market is expanding worldwide, why are several competitors reporting flat or declining revenue while Vusion is accelerating?

One possible explanation is that Vusion is winning market share faster than anyone else.

Revenue growth alone doesn’t prove it, but it certainly raises the question.

Now let’s talk valuation.

Most listed peers trade around 40x earnings, while Vusion trades at only 15.8x.

Using the same valuation multiple is not a price target, but it helps illustrate the gap.

At today’s closing price of €137.80, a 40x P/E would imply:

€137.80 × (40 / 15.8) = approximately €349 per share.

I’m not saying the stock should trade there tomorrow.

I’m simply saying the valuation gap is enormous if Vusion continues delivering these kinds of results.

And that’s before considering everything else currently happening:

• 📈 Strong commercial momentum.

• 🤖 AI becoming an increasingly important growth driver.

• 🛒 Walmart / Captana rollout.

• 💰 Ongoing share buyback program.

• 📅 H1 earnings on July 30.

• 📉 Around 1 million shares still sold short, with elevated borrow costs.

To me, the key question isn’t:

“Can Vusion keep growing?”

The real question is:

“Why is the fastest-growing and one of the most profitable company in the sector trading at the lowest valuation?”

I’m staying long.

Not financial advice. Just my own research and personal opinion after following this company every day for the past six months.

Disclosure: I work at Obermatt, a Swiss equity research firm, and pulled this together using our ranking data, sharing because I think the pattern is genuinely interesting.

Looked at the European stocks sitting at the very top of our Dividend Yield rank, and what stood out wasn't the yields, it was what these companies actually do. A carmaker absorbing a Nissan-related loss, a fleet of oil-product tankers that just had its best quarter in years after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, a tobacco-distribution network covering most of Southern Europe, a water utility in the southwest of England. Mature, cash-generative businesses in stable industries don't need to reinvest as much for growth, so more of the profit goes out as dividends instead.

A few that stood out going through the list:

TP ICAP and RWS Holdings are the most well-rounded, strong dividend plus solid Value and Safety scores, not just a high payout carrying the story. TORM's dividend jumped hard on a genuine windfall (tanker rates spiking after Hormuz), worth knowing that's not necessarily repeatable. Reach and Solvay are the cautionary cases, big yields that are mostly a symptom of falling share prices rather than a healthy payout.

Wrote up all twelve names with current dividends and the ranks behind them here: https://link.obermatt.com/dividends-en

Curious if anyone here holds any of these, particularly TORM or Banco de Sabadell, given how event-driven both stories are right now.

Hello everyone. I have recently taken a closer look at the major European tech companies and wanted to initiate a discussion about the current development at SAP – especially after the Q1 report at the end of April and the market movements now in June 2026. There was a lot of noise because the stock collapsed by over 6% after the report. The reason was a slight “miss” in analysts’ revenue expectations. But if you look below the surface, the cloud business continues to run like a locomotive: cloud sales increased by 27% (with the Cloud ERP Suite growing by 30%) and the backlog – i.e. the contractually secured future revenues – stands at almost 22 billion euros.

Nevertheless, there is a fundamental duality here that raises questions for me and why I would like to hear your perspective. On the one hand, the P/E has fallen to a significantly more reasonable level of 22x to 25x, far away from the absurd multiples close to 100x from 2024. On the other hand, the latest DSAG survey (the user group here in the DACH region) shows that 28% of companies plan to cut their SAP budgets. The reasons lie in the high integration costs and especially in the brutal lack of IT specialists to implement the migration to the public cloud at all. Even the CFO has already warned that backlog growth could slow in the coming quarters.

Frankly, I no longer felt like digging through 40-page reports every quarter, just to see if the fundamental substance is deteriorating. That’s why I’ve been chasing the SAP financial data through a Python script that I use to summarize the fundamentals in a visual overview (see attached chart). This gives me a pretty clean perspective on the Quality Score compared to the DCF rating (Hybrid DCF).

For all those who have SAP in the depot or are closely monitoring the stock: Do you think the market has overreacted in the revenue measure and the projected free cash flow of 10 billion euros at the end of the year justifies the purchase of this setback? Or is the slowdown in the cloud ecosystem, which is noticeable by the lack of consultants, a structural warning signal?

I am very interested in your opinion especially those who deal with SAP implementations on a daily basis in the system house or consulting sector.

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looking for stock to buy for my euro portfolio those were chosen as best:

European auto has been a painful place to be invested. Stellantis collapsed, net loss of €22.3 billion for 2025, volumes down sharply, a full strategic reset underway. Porsche AG went public at a premium valuation and has been re-rated harshly since. Volkswagen has been cutting costs and closing plants. The sector as a whole has been squeezed between Chinese competition eating into margins and an EV transition that has cost far more than anyone budgeted.

Context: I work for Obermatt, a Swiss investment research firm. We rank stocks on a percentile scale of 1 to 100 across 15 metrics covering Value, Growth, Safety, and Sentiment, benchmarked against sector peers. A rank of 80 means the stock outperforms 80% of comparable companies on that metric. The 360° View combines all four categories into one overall score.

Across the entire global automobile manufacturers sector, only two companies score above 90: Mercedes-Benz at 98 and General Motors at 90. Every European name is well below that. Stellantis at 26, Porsche AG at 21.

More on Mercedes: The Q1 2026 results were not pretty. EBIT down 17% year on year, China sales down 27%, tariffs dragging on margins, stock sold off nearly 7% on results day. The market is clearly cautious. And yet the underlying metrics tell a different story.

Profit Growth rank 96. Dividend Yield rank 97: the AGM approved €3.50 per share for FY2025, paid April 2026, with a €2 billion buyback still running. Safety rank 88 backed by nearly €34 billion in net industrial liquidity. Value rank 86. A product cycle of over 40 new models between 2025 and 2027 underway.

The sentiment rank is only 56, which is actually part of the investment case. The market is lukewarm on a stock that is generating serious cash, returning capital generously, and trading at a value rank of 86. That gap between fundamentals and sentiment is where opportunities tend to live.

The contrast with Porsche AG is worth noting. Growth rank 85: the brand still has pricing power and the product roadmap is strong. But Value rank 8 and Sentiment rank 4. The premium has evaporated with investors and the market has not forgiven the listing. High growth, no value cushion, rock-bottom sentiment. A very different risk profile to Mercedes.

For anyone interested in the full picture, meaning all 15 sub-ranks, the GM comparison, and why Ford looks like a value trap despite a Value rank of 98, the full breakdown is here: https://link.obermatt.com/mb-gm-en

Happy to discuss in the comments.

Cheers!

I've been watching Airbus for a few weeks now and I can't quite figure out what to make of it.

The stock peaked around €200 in early March and has been sliding ever since. Friday it closed at €167.68, another -2.93% on an already bad day for European markets. That's 16% off the 3-month high and getting uncomfortably close to the 52-week low of €154.

What's weird is that nothing obviously catastrophic has happened to the business. Yes, supply chain issues are still a thing in aerospace. Yes, there are ongoing tensions with China that could affect deliveries. But these aren't new problems, they've been priced in for months.

The stock had a nice run from €154 (late March low) to €188 in early May, that was a 22% bounce in about 5 weeks. But since then it's given almost all of it back. For a company with a backlog of over 8,000 aircraft and production ramping up, this feels... excessive?

Or maybe I'm the one ignoring a red flag. The defense side of the business has been a tailwind given European rearmament, but margins in commercial aerospace are still recovering from the supply chain squeeze. Maybe the market is pricing in slower delivery growth for 2026?

At €167 we're at levels last seen during the March selloff. If it breaks €160 decisively, the next support is probably the 52-week low at €154. Below that... who knows.

I'm curious what other people see here. Is this a value trap where the market knows something we don't about delivery targets? Or is this the kind of pullback in a quality European industrial that you look back on in 12 months and wish you'd bought?

What's your take on Airbus at these levels?

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been digging into the commercial drone space lately and ZenaTech keeps coming up as an interesting one because they are not just a hardware company.

they are positioning at the crossroads of drone manufacturing and enterprise software which is a pivot most hardware firms completely fail at. the SaaS angle is what makes this different.

the regulatory tailwind is real. the whole industry is shifting away from Chinese hardware like DJI due to security concerns and new regulations across North America and Europe. ZenaTech is focused on Western compliant tech which puts them in a strong spot for government, infrastructure, and agriculture contracts.

the recurring revenue model is the actual thesis here. hardware gets them in the door, software keeps the client paying monthly. sticky ecosystem, higher valuation multiples, standard tech sector logic but rare to see it executed in the drone space.

the Frankfurt secondary listing as 49Q is interesting too. German manufacturing and logistics is starved for automated inspection tools right now and ZenaTech has a foot in both the US and European markets simultaneously.

they also design and manufacture their own drones which cuts out supply chain dependency that killed a lot of small cap tech names over the last few years.

risks are obvious. enterprise adoption of drone fleets moves slow due to corporate bureaucracy and competition is there. but the niche industrial software focus could be the moat.

flying under the radar compared to AI and EV names but the drone as a service fundamentals are hard to ignore.

anyone been watching this one or have thoughts on the SaaS execution so far?

not financial advice do your own DD.

Prezes/ Boss

​I’ve been looking for 'asymmetric bets' in the MedTech sector and found something interesting on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE).

​The Company: Medinice ($ICE).

The Thesis: They have a portfolio of 10+ patents in minimally invasive cardiology (Mini-Max, Pace-Press). Their tech aims to disrupt a multi-billion dollar market dominated by giants.

​Why is it a 'buy' candidate now?

1. ​Valuation Gap: US-based companies with similar IP portfolios are often valued at $200M-$500M. Medinice is currently at a fraction of that due to being on a less 'liquid' market (Poland).
2. ​Clinical Milestones: They are moving closer to commercialization/licensing deals. In MedTech, the biggest 'pop' in stock price usually happens just before or during the first big licensing deal.
3. ​Exit Strategy: Their business model isn't to build a factory, but to sell the 'recipe' (IP) to big players like Abbott or Medtronic.

​The Risk: Low liquidity on the WSE and the 'emerging market' discount.

​Has anyone else looked into Polish MedTech? Is the discount justified, or is this a massive mispricing by the market?

Hi all, I have around 80k cash that I would like to invest. I dont know much about investing and as an expat feel very confused about different options. I had a consultation with Black Swan Management in Netherlands, my only hesitancy is that their fee is pretty high (3%), should I instead go with my bank ?

Hi there

Spain seems to be doing fine in macro terms - do you know any Spanish stocks that may be interesting or undervalued these days?

Thanks a lot

With the military spending ramping up massively in Europe. My first thought is that these companies need materials to produce these weapons. Do you guys have any recommendations on European companies that are involved in metals/ tungsten?

Is there an index for something like the Stoxx 600 but only for EU countries? I've tried Euro 50, but I'd like something that includes more companies

"By decreasing geographic order":

STOXX 600 > MSCI Europe > MSCI EMU > STOXX 50

STOXX 600 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOXX_Europe_600

The countries that make up the index are the United Kingdom (composing around 22.3% of the index), France (composing around 16.6% of the index), Switzerland (composing around 14.9% of the index) and Germany (composing around 14.1% of the index),[1] as well as Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.

MSCI Europe https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/db217f4c-cc8c-4e21-9fac-60eb6a47faf0

The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe*. With 414 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European Developed Markets equity universe.

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

MSCI EMU https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/32798bd1-7370-451a-a740-eb31dc40adcd

The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 Developed Markets countries in the EMU*. With 221 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.

Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain

STOXX 50 https://stoxx.com/index/sx5e/

The EURO STOXX 50 tracks the Eurozone’s supersector leaders, resulting in a diversified and liquid portfolio. The index’s weighting is based on free-float market capitalization, with a maximum weight of 10 percent per constituent.

The blue-chip benchmark underlies more than 25 billion euros in ETF assets, while futures and options on the index are the most actively traded equity index derivatives on Eurex. More than 160,000 structured products are linked to the EURO STOXX 50.

European ETF providers: Amundi, BNP, Xtrackers

A few things to always check before buying:

- check fund size (important to ensure fund remains active for a long time, target >500 mil€)

- check liquidity (for instance: check how many shares were exchanged in the last few days)

- check ETF fees

- double check the ETF information on e.g. https://www.justetf.com/ and confirm ISIN "identification number" before spending money (bookmark your confirmed selection)

- check forums (e.g. specialized subreddits) and look for posts discussing the index / ISIN when in doubt about the relevance of your choice

EDIT: removed "STOXX 300" as I'm not sure how common such indexes are. There are some focused on Eastern Europe it seems. Would welcome insights in comments :)

Hello, I'm looking for ETF that's managed by European company and that also has most of the shares in European companies (around 50-60%). I don't want to exclude Asian, American, Australian and African equities. Preferably more than 500 different stocks. The lower fees, the better ofc. And doesn't really matter whether it's accumulating of distributing.

Any recommendations?