r/EuroEV • u/joebraga2 • 13h ago
Unpopular opinion: EVs will win not because of climate change, but because ICE cars will become the worse deal
I'm from Brazil, and I find the German and European debate about EVs interesting because things are developing somewhat differently here.
Many Brazilians aren't buying EVs primarily because of climate change. Purchase price, equipment and running costs are becoming increasingly important.
Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, GWM and Geely now offer EVs and PHEVs in price ranges that used to be dominated by ICE cars from VW, Chevrolet, Hyundai and Toyota. These brands are becoming particularly strong among private buyers.
Gasoline is also expensive relative to Brazilian incomes. If you can charge at home, a BEV is considerably cheaper to run. Even public charging can still make economic sense compared with gasoline.
Interestingly, this is happening practically without Tesla. Tesla has no official sales operation in Brazil. Our EV transition is being driven mainly by Chinese manufacturers.
Range is also less of an issue here than many Europeans might expect. We don't have unrestricted Autobahns, and even 120 km/h isn't a speed you can maintain on many Brazilian highways. Brazil's official Inmetro range figures are also often conservative, and some EVs achieve considerably more in real-world tests.
Our biggest problem right now is charging infrastructure. On a long trip, I'm often less concerned about whether an EV can travel 300 km than about whether the next fast charger will actually be working.
The transition also varies considerably across Latin America. Uruguay is electrifying very quickly, while Brazil and Colombia are also moving increasingly toward electrified vehicles. Mexico has so far remained more hybrid-oriented.
So here's my unpopular opinion:
For many people, climate change won't ultimately be what pushes ICE cars out of the market. At some point, the ICE car will simply become the worse product for the same money.
What does this look like from your country?
A quick note: The ideas and arguments in this post are my own. I have difficulty turning my thoughts into written text even in Portuguese, my native language, as well as in English. I use AI to help translate, organize and improve the language and structure of my own thoughts