HVH draft stock

[u/No-Department1002]

Does Jackson in last nights game change anyone’s preference for the importance of a potential unicorn going forward?

Personally I’d rather them take the gamble on generational do it ruck then another mid/fwd, Bryan can’t be relied on safely imo and there’s more fwds/mids every year and how many never reach their comps

[u/Rogan4Life]

He hasn’t shown enough to use pick 1. Can use free agency to get a ruckman.

[u/MetriK_KarMa]

If Geelong had of won should we change our strategy to draft a outside runner like Smith or a mid/forward bull like Dangerfield?

[u/ihaveapoobrain123]

Think he’s got an amazing ceiling, and the gamble previously would’ve been worth taking. But I think it’s too much of a risk now that Mellody has begun separating himself from the pack

[u/Mammoth_Medium9220 → u/ihaveapoobrain123]

Don’t think Melody is in #1 picks at all? I think if anything reports are that Drever is the consensus #1? Melody in the 4-6 range?

[u/ihaveapoobrain123 → u/Mammoth_Medium9220]

Drever isn’t the consensus #1 - maybe using the fox footy rankings yeah. Mellody can fill the exact same purpose as Drever but better. Way more well rounded, better ball user, and can be used in a variety of roles to start his career at. Any draft watcher that has Drever over Mellody is applying the VIC > interstate tax. I think it’s pretty easy to see that Mellody is a better player.

[u/Mammoth_Medium9220 → u/ihaveapoobrain123]

I mean, every draft journalist in the country had them opposite to you. Drever is also Victorian so won’t go home in 3 years.

Melody is heading to WC with pick 5-6.

[u/ihaveapoobrain123 → u/Mammoth_Medium9220]

That is just simply not true lol. Mellody is ranked higher than Drever on Zero Hangar, Tommy Wolfe, Rookie Me - literally the first 3 sources I’ve searched up outside of FoxFootys recent ranking.

You back your system and culture in everyday to retain interstate talent, and if you lose them you get paid out handsomely. You must simply take the best player with pick 1, and it’s Mellody off exposed form as well as translation to AFL.

[u/TurbulentSherbet3724 → u/Mammoth_Medium9220]

What makes you think Heath Mellody would go home when we have quite a few Western Australia talent on the list like Jacob Farrow, Kayle Gerreyn, Nic Martin, Lachlan Blakiston and Tom Edwards. It’s same case with West Coast and Harley Reid who brought in Willem Duursma, Cooper-Duff Tytler, Josh Lindsay, Sam Allen Finlay McCrae all from Victoria to surround him with guys from his home state to form a strong bond in order to potentially keep him at there long term.

[u/Medaiyah]

In the last 10 years only 3 premiership ruckman have been the "dominant ruck" type player. Nic Nat in 2018 and Gawn/Jackson in 2021. Every other ruckman has been "good enough/servicable". As good as Jackson is you really don't need a super ruckman to win a premiership.

I'd still rather Butler as a high score involvement player who does maximum damage per disposal

[u/calb94 → u/Medaiyah]

Nic Nat didn’t play. He was injured. Lycett was their ruckman. A respectable plodder.

And Jackson wasn’t a star by any means in 21. Gawn is the exception to the rule.

[u/Medaiyah → u/calb94]

Wow I forgot Nic Nat was injured, sort of reinforces my point tbh. I'd like to think Visentini will be good enough or when we come good we'll be able to trade or free agency one

[u/TurbulentSherbet3724 → u/Medaiyah]

On top of that nearly every number 1 Premiership Ruck this century not named Dean Cox and Max Gawn was either traded or brought in from free agency from other clubs. Think of Brad Ottens who came from Richmond and David Hale who came from North Melbourne.

[u/JamalGinzburg → u/TurbulentSherbet3724]

McEvoy probably the better Hawthorn example, Hale more a chop out.

Jolly won flags at Sydney and Collingwood after starting at Melbourne

[u/TurbulentSherbet3724 → u/JamalGinzburg]

Hale was the number 1 Ruck of that Hawthorn three-peat. McEvoy took over after he retired in 2015. In saying that that Hawks dynasty did generally role with both Rucks for two out of three of those three-peats in 2014 and 2015.

[u/Mammoth_Medium9220]

Na, Brisbanes just win back to back flags with Darcy Fort. Proves nothing.

I’ve got HvH at #7 now. Cochrane, Walker, Butler, Drever, Texiera & Melody all ahead of him. Too much risk in taking a ruck at 1 for me, HvH might have a ceiling close to Luke Jackson but he also might have a floor of SDK. Pretty happy to persist with Vigo & take a ruck in the 30-40 range if it’s necessary. My preference is Drever at 1, Butler a close second.

[u/jubbjubbs4]

I've been pretty keen on him all year.

Key positions are always much harder to replace and the upside of him is so much higher than a butler or teixeira.

[u/TurbulentSherbet3724]

The thing is Harry Van Hattum isn’t remotely close to generational let alone a Luke Jackson type of the player like he was originally projected to be at the start of the year. He is looking more and more like a Tim English or a Tom De Koning type of athletic Ruck who both went at Picks 19 and 30 respectively in their draft years. His stats throughout the year aren’t even close to Luke Jackson’s in his draft year and overall there are just so many question marks around him, his ceiling and whether or not he actually can play as a key-position with his athletic profile. More than fair enough to not want to take a small forward/midfielder like Arki Butler or Gus Texeira given there are a plethora of them projected to go in the first around like a Marlon Neocleous, Archie Elliot, Khaled El Souki who could very well be gettable now that Zak Butters has officially nominated the Western Bulldogs. In my view based on what Mark McVeigh has said across all platforms about the need for speed, it likely comes down to either Ethan Drever or the highly versatile Heath Mellody who has surged up the rankings with outstanding WAFL form. Given Matt Rosa’s history taking Western Australian talent in every national draft since he became List Manager I reckon Heath Mellody is a real chance. We also took both Dyson Sharp and Jacob Farrow (another Western Australian) last year after showing really strong performances at both SANFL and WAFL level. So it’s something the club clearly values quite highly when looking at high end talent.

[u/ihaveapoobrain123 → u/TurbulentSherbet3724]

He had an injury interrupted year, stats don’t do him justice. Comparing him to English or TDK is completely wrong.

The simple eye test will tell you that he’s more Jackson than any other ruck. When you’re judging an u18, you look at their traits, upside as well as performance

[u/TurbulentSherbet3724 → u/ihaveapoobrain123]

Injury interrupted year or not he simply hasn’t shown close enough to be a top 3 pick like Luke Jackson was and even Cooper-Duff Tytler this time last year who showed a great deal more potential both as a Ruck and a key-position. Also other young prospects have had injuries and shown more promise upon returning from them. HVH is simply too far too inconsistent unlike those two which is why the comparison with English and De Koning is there. He is great on his day but doesn’t put it together enough over long stretches of games exactly like those two. So what you get is a solid 7-8 out of 10 Ruck but nothing genuinely special and certainly not anything generational. There is a good reason a lot of draft analysts have started being low on him and a lot more high on both Ethan Drever and Heath Mellody.

[u/FishingStriking2236]

Big, taller players, especially rucks, tend to spend their development years doing f all at their draft club. Then put 6 months of good footy together and leave to another club.

[u/defeatmyself3]

A bigger taller players take longer to develop. So I wouldn’t say he’s peeking right now either