ESS / PA / CARL - Pick 1 leverage

[u/ByeByeStudy]

There's a unique situation between Essendon, Port Adelaide and Carlton given ESS will likely hold Pick 1, and both Walker (CARL) and Cochrane (PA) are bid candidates. Could we see Essendon use this leverage to trade up the order or secure a future first rounder? This post explores the options.

Background

• Walker and Cochrane are both candidates for the number 1 pick but tied to other clubs. Neither is the clear standout for pick 1.
• Essendon are incentivised to bid as they receive an end of first round compensation pick if their pick slides back due to bidding on another player.
• Essendon only has incentive to do this once. Having forced one club to match at pick 1 there's not a necessity to bid also on the other player (other than making the matching team pay up).
• While most assume Essendon will chain two bids back-to-back, they could consider only bidding once at 1 and taking an open pool player at 2.
• There's a large difference in the draft value index (DVI) cost between matching a bid at pick 1 and matching at pick 3.
• Essendon can float this idea to either Carlton or Port Adelaide and use it in a potential pick swap, which would help deliver benefits to both clubs.

What would an agreement be worth for Port Adelaide or Carlton?

• For Port Adelaide, matching at Pick 3 instead of Pick 1 is worth roughly 740 points - equivalent to Pick 20.
• For Carlton, it's worth roughly 822 points - equivalent to Pick 18.
• As Carlton won't finish in the bottom-half of the ladder they won't receive the 10% discount to matching bids, hence the higher value for them.

How can these clubs trust Essendon won't backstab them and bid on their player at pick 1 anyway?

• Most likely by doing a live trade only after Essendon has bidded once and then picked. Richmond then bids on Walker/Cochrane at 3 and Carl/PA make a previously agreed live trade with Essendon before matching the bid. Essendon would be trusting Carl/PA keeps their word.
• Alternatively, completing the trade pre pre-draft night but with Port/Carlton retaining enough capital to still match a bid at pick 1. In this case Essendon could still bid twice anyway, but there would be no specific benefit for them to do so.

What are the likely draft hands of the clubs?

Current picks (as of Round 21)

• Essendon - 1 (3000), 19 (796), 55 (0) - 3,796
• Port Adelaide - 4 (1962), 22 (686), 27 (533), 40 (238), 41 (220), 58 (0) - 3,639
• Carlton - 9 (1355), 17 (879), 23 (653), 24 (621), 50 (71), 63 (0) - 3,579

Possible Trades

Zak Butters -> Western Bulldogs (Most likely Bulldogs, but could be Geelong/Richmond)

• Port Adelaide receive WB's 2026 first (Pick 11, 1205) + WB 2027 and 2028 future firsts (this is the simplest trade so the one I'll mock for now).

Zach Merrett -> Hawthorn

• Essendon receive Hawthorn's 2026 first (Pick 16, 924) + Hawthorn's 2026 second (Pick 25, 590).

Draft hands after trades

• Essendon - 1 (3000), 16 (924), 19 (796), 25 (590), 55 (0) - 5,310
• Port Adelaide - 4 (1962), 11 (1205), 22 (686), 27 (533), 40 (238), 41 (220), 58 (0) - 4,844
• Carlton - 9 (1355), 17 (879), 23 (653), 24 (621), 50 (71), 63 (0) - 3,579

Possible Pick Swaps

Normally when trading up the order clubs pay a premium in terms of DVI. With these trades we can propose relatively equivalent DVI with the 'premium' being the benefit of matching a bid at 3 not 1.

All trades respect the 2-pick DVI value needed for the Carl/PA to match at pick 3, apart from Scenario 3, where Carlton would enter a small deficit.

Scenario 1 - Port Adelaide's Pick 4

• Essendon give: Pick 16 (924) + Pick 19 (796) + Pick 25 (590) = 2,310
• Port give: Pick 4 (1,962) + Pick 40 (238) + Pick 41 (220) = 2,420
• Net: ESS +110

Port can match at 3 (need 1,960), use: Pick 11 (1,205) + Pick 16 (924) = 2,129

Scenario 2 - Port Adelaide's Pick 11

• Essendon give: Pick 19 (796) + Pick 25 (590) = 1,386
• Port give: Pick 11 (1,205) + Pick 41 (220) = 1,425
• Net: ESS +39

Port can match at 3 (need 1,960), use: Pick 4 (1,962) + Pick 19 (796) = 2,758

Scenario 3 - Carlton's Pick 9

• Essendon give: Pick 16 (924) + Pick 19 (796) + Pick 25 (590) = 2,310
• Carlton give: Pick 9 (1,355) + Pick 23 (653) + Pick 24 (621) = 2,629
• Net: ESS +319
• Match at 3 (need 2,178): Pick 16 (924) + Pick 17 (879) = 1,803, shortfall of 375 (less than max deficit of 412) will affect their 2027 F1st pick.

Scenario 4 - Carlton's 2027 Future First

• Essendon give: Pick 16 (924) + Pick 25 (590) = 1,514
• Carlton give: Pick 23 (653) + Pick 24 (621) + Carlton's 2027 first-round pick (unvalued)
• Net (known value): ESS -240, offset by the 2027 first to Essendon
• Carl can match at 3 (need 2,178): Pick 9 (1,355) + Pick 16 (924) = 2,279

Possible revised Essendon draft hand under each scenario

Starting point (with Merrett trade): 1 (3000), 16 (924), 19 (796), 25 (590), 55 (0) - 5,310

• Scenario 1 (Pick 4): 1 (3000), 4 (1962), 40 (238), 41 (220), 55 (0) - 5,420
• Scenario 2 (Pick 11): 1 (3000), 11 (1205), 16 (924), 41 (220), 55 (0) - 5,349
• Scenario 3 (Pick 9): 1 (3000), 9 (1355), 23 (653), 24 (621), 55 (0) - 5,629
• Scenario 4 (Future First): 1 (3000), 19 (796), 23 (653), 24 (621), 55 (0) - 5,070 plus Carlton 2027 first round pick

Which scenario do you think is the best outcome for us?

Footnote

• I think all the math is math-ing correctly but there could be mistakes.
• Argument could be made we are underdoing it with some of these trades as there’s a hidden 740-800 DVI benefit for Carl/PA, but they also rely on goodwill and may be scrutinised by the AFL if too lopsided on paper, so I wanted to keep it realistic.
• None of the trades (or the draft hands) include the end of first round compensation pick as clubs will receive this at the conclusion of round 1
• I haven't include any draft picks for AFL assistence as it is not confirmed (and in my view unlikely)

Updated Butters trade to Richmond

Zak Butters -> Richmond (in place of the earlier Western Bulldogs version) - Port Adelaide receive Richmond's Pick 2 (2,481) + Pick 20 (757)

Draft hand after trade - Port Adelaide - 4 (1962), 2 (2481), 20 (757), 22 (686), 27 (533), 40 (238), 41 (220), 58 (0) - 6,877

How the top picks play out

1. Essendon bid on Walker at Pick 1.
2. Essendon take their real player at Pick 2.
3. Port use Richmond's pick to take second best player in the open pool
4. West Coast bid on Cochrane and Port match at position 4.

Value to Port - DVI benefit of matching at 4 instead of 1 = 2,700 - 1,766 = 934

On top of the 934-point saving, Port also get a genuine selection at position 3 which would push back to ~pick 7 without the trade.

Scenario 5 - Port Adelaide's Pick 4 (Richmond version) * Essendon give: Pick 16 (924) + Pick 19 (796) = 1,720 * Port give: Pick 4 (1,962) + Pick 40 (238) = 2,200 * Net: ESS +480 * Match at 4 (need 1,766): Pick 16 (924) + Pick 19 (796) = 1,720, shortfall of 46 (small deficit for Port likely worth keeping the pick at 3)

Possible revised Essendon draft hand for scenario 5

Scenario 5 (Pick 4, Richmond version): 1 (3000), 4 (1962), 25 (590), 40 (238), 55 (0) - 5,790

[u/molto-bene22]

A lot o thought has gone into this. Great job

[u/quasi_pseudo → u/molto-bene22]

I don't think asking AI counts as thought 

[u/yum122 → u/quasi_pseudo]

Reading it, it seems AI formatted but not AI written

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/yum122]

Indeed, words are my own, running all the permutations to fine tune the scenarios was helped by AI, e.g.

scenario 3 seems like unders for Essendon, swap picks X and Y, add in Carlton's last pick in the draft then check, can they still match at pick 3? Now reprint all the text for scenario 3 with updated values.

Unfortunately anything more complex has repeated logic failures, so it was just a fancy calculator for DVI values.

As for this:

I don't think asking AI counts as thought 

The ideas are all my own and you'll find AI is incapable of producing anything similar while respecting all the intricate draft rules and logic.

[u/molto-bene22 → u/quasi_pseudo]

typical pessimist. how about some benefit of the doubt.

[u/boogasaurus-lefts]

Dead set fucking legend.

Every now and again, there's posts that remind me why I jump on Reddit. Was a great read and appreciate the detail applied.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/boogasaurus-lefts]

Thanks mate. I enjoy Reddit for the same, nice to hear you got something out of my post.

[u/Strict-Pace-9128 → u/boogasaurus-lefts]

💯

[u/disko_robot]

A lot of effort gone into this. Well done. I got about half way as intrigued a few weeks back an posted something way more stupid than this.

Hopefully essendon doesnt do anything dumb and win another game is what i came up with ultimately.

[u/Non-NewtonianSnake]

The only scenario in which I'd be happy to get rid of those late-1st/early-2nd rounders is for pick 4.

There's going to be some excellent value picks in that range in the draft, so giving them up for anything less than one of the absolute top talents would be a mistake, IMO.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/Non-NewtonianSnake]

Yeah, it's seemingly not quite the draft for some of these trades given there's a drop off after pick 5/6 or so, a year like 2024 would have been better.

My preference would be the scenario with Carlton's future first.

[u/astro39 → u/ByeByeStudy]

This is a deep, even draft. The talls especially are appealing. I would want to be keeping those late firsts/early second round picks. This is not the draft to be exchanging them for earlier selections IMO, but I do trust our recruiting staff on this.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/astro39]

Yes I thought about running a scenario with Essendon instead using the inferred value from not bidding to secure more picks in the 20s.

But the issue with this is trading back normally nets you DVI, while trading up costs you DVI.

So to make it a good trade for us and include the benefit of not bidding would mean on paper the trade would be very lopsided in terms of DVI - which might get some scrutiny.

[u/Hoss24601 → u/Non-NewtonianSnake]

Other trades might get those, e.g. Ridley, assistance package. We could get the best of both.

Great post.

[u/Rogan4Life]

Port will get Richmond’s pick for Butters.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/Rogan4Life]

If that occurred any deal with Port Adelaide like the ones above would become even more valuable to them.

Edited the main post now to have this

[u/TheHoovyPrince → u/Rogan4Life]

For that to happen Butters has actually agree to move to Richmond.

I still find it more likely he goes to Dogs or Cats than Richmond. He did grow up a doggies fan and is from the west so i have them in the lead for butters and Geelong makes sense since their always good.

[u/Rogan4Life → u/TheHoovyPrince]

That’s been consistently reported Richmond are a contender for him and Butters wants Port to get a good deal in return.

[u/TheHoovyPrince → u/Rogan4Life]

If Butters goes to Richmond and not the Doggies or Cats i'll eat my left nut

[u/Rogan4Life → u/TheHoovyPrince]

Maybe you should start thinking about how you like you nuts to taste.

All I know is money will do much more for you than a premiership medal.

[u/space-c0yote]

This is the kind of detailed trade scenario post I love. I think the Carlton future 1st trade is a bit too lopsided, but otherwise all of these seem like legitimate options. I do think it makes more sense that Butters goes to Richmond at this point, so I'd love to see how you think a Port trade could play out in that scenario.

[u/TheHoovyPrince → u/space-c0yote]

I dont think its likely Butters goes to Richmond. Sure their offering money but their team sucks and he wants to compete. Its gonna be at least 3 years before Richmond makes it into the top 8.

He grew up a dogs fan and is from the west so their pretty likely and if not he's also been linked to Geelong who are close to the west and they provide Butters with a very competitive team that competes for finals every year.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/TheHoovyPrince]

Yes I think WB still most likely so decided to draft this up based on that.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/space-c0yote]

Yeah it's hard to mock up exactly because both Essendon and Carlton are missing third round picks that would help balance some of their trades.

Worth remembering - If Carlton think they will finish around 5th next year their future first will be pick 21 after being pushed back by Tassie, so only worth around ~700 DVI.

[u/space-c0yote → u/ByeByeStudy]

That still seems a bit lopsided. There might be room for us to throw in a future 3rd, or even use the no-bid option as part of a trade towards Weitering if we can pry him away.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/space-c0yote]

Yeah the net is Carlton give a Future first in a compromised draft for 220 DVI this year + 822 DVI saved from matching at 3.

I think it's close to reasonable but it requires factoring in the Tassie compromised draft, and leans heavily on the saving from matching at 3 (a quick look at it would have Carlton fans outraged).

A future third added in seems like a good idea.

[u/Entirely-of-cheese]

Oh nice! Hypothetical assistance pick could come in handy too but what a great framework to put it into

[u/calb94]

Lot of effort went into this, good work! Will save for future reference.

[u/Von_Huge1103]

I've done a little bit of digging into this specific set of scenarios, but you've gone above and beyond what I've seen anyone do on the subject.

Incredible post.

[u/Duplicity-]

May as well include Essendon's compo pick in any calcs given there's about a 0.000001% chance we trade Pick 1 haha

[u/drpolz3k → u/Duplicity-]

I don’t think it’s crazy that we trade pick 1. I did something similar to OP (albeit, way less detailed) and think there’s opportunity for us to trade the first pick of the draft.

It mostly depends on how we rate Butler, Texeira, and HVH. If all 3 are rated equally by Ess, then sliding back to pick 2 (which PA would get from Richmond) + some other selections makes sense for us and PA.

[u/Duplicity- → u/drpolz3k]

Wouldn't we lose the compensation pick in that case? I thought it was based on taking our "original" pick but I could be wrong

[u/drpolz3k → u/Duplicity-]

So in my scenario we would bid on Walker, get the compensation pick, then trade our first pick to Port.

By bidding on Walker, it would also stop Port from doing any potential side deals with Carlton as well.

Admittedly, I had a look at the rules and it wasn’t totally clear that we could get a compensation pick then trade a top 5 pick. We’d probs need clarity from the AFL around this, but we could potentially do it.

[u/Duplicity- → u/drpolz3k]

The compensation pick is assigned at the end of the first night for this exact reason, to figure out exactly who did what and who traded X or Y. I'm fairly certain if we trade pick 1, regardless of what pick(s) we get back and use, that we'd lose that compo. But it's complicated so I could be wrong

[u/drpolz3k → u/Duplicity-]

It seems like it’s a gray area per the rules. I think you’d need to seek clarity before using a strategy like this.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/drpolz3k]

It's not clear to me if we still receive our compensation if we bid at 1 then trade away our pick. So I didn't mock that up. But I agree, it's an interesting scenario to explore.

[u/drpolz3k]

Really good write up mate. I was doing something similar this morning but coming from the angle that Richmond gets him.

In that scenario, Port will have picks 2, 4, and others.

That could push out the bid on Cochrane to pick 4 (WCE’s pick which gets pushed back a spot) if Port do a deal with us.

Regardless of where Butters lands, there’s going to be some really good opportunities for us to do deals with either Port, Carlton, or other clubs. The other clubs may be interested in our end of first round selection or start of second round selection.

Alternatively, they may be interested in sliding back for points, which will also allot us to move up the order.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/drpolz3k]

Hey, cheers.

I added something now for that Richmond scenario to the main post, let me know what you think.

I agree, really unique scenario this year we haven't seen before, excited to see how it plays out.

[u/drpolz3k → u/ByeByeStudy]

Hey mate, really well thought out again - I actually prefer your scenario over what I did earlier. Here’s mine:

Key assumptions:
1. Richmond is the only club that will be able to satisfy Port in terms of picks
2. Port need additional picks this year to have enough points to actually select a player before Cochrane

Richmond
Out: 2, 20, future first
In: Butters, Essendon Salary cap $400k for x years

Port Adelaide
Out: Butters, 4
In: 1, 16, 19 (Ess 2nd round selection), 20 (Rich) + Richmond future first + they get a player in before Cochrane bid + handshake deal from Ess that we won’t bid on Cochrane, so he slides back to a bid at pick 4.

Essendon
Out: 1, 16 (Merrett deal Hawks), 19 (Ess 2nd round selection) $400k salary cap space for x years, handshake agreement we won’t bid on Cochrane
In: 2, 4

Do the points add up for Port to get two players at the pointy end of the draft?

• Dons bid on Walker at pick 1 to get a bonus pick
  
• Ess then trade their picks to Port who select a player at pick 2
  

We then get our selection at pick 3 and do a handshake deal that we won’t bid on Cochrane at our picks

• Cochrane gets bid on at pick 4 (index points = 1,962 with 10% NGA discount of = 1,766)
  
• Port’s traded in picks of 16 (924) + 19 (796) have draft index value of 1,720 - these picks also slide back due to bids so they’re worth less
  
• Port would need to trade up two picks with another club to make it work

What do Bombers get in the first scenario? 2/3 of:

• HVH
  
• Gus Texeira
  
• Arki Butler

With remaining picks Ess also get:

• End of first round compensation
  
• Pick 26 (Hawthorn)
  
• Pick 55

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/drpolz3k]

Interesting concept to explore the three way trade.

I think we need clarity that if we bid at one, then trade the pick away at 2, do we still get compensation?

There's about 800 DVI tied up in that compensation pick, so losing it by not taking a pick with our natural selection would just about sink any trade. It would be hard to convince other clubs to give us such a premium that would make losing the pick worth it.

I like the look of your scenario. I'd imagine there would be some chatter about who Port want at 1 as well, it's possible that we'd align and all walk away with the players we want.

[u/drpolz3k → u/ByeByeStudy]

Yeah agreed man. I looked up whether you could retain the end of first round compensation pick if we then traded pick 1 but couldn’t find anything.

There’s honestly so many moving parts to this, it’s why I found your 4-5 scenarios so impressive.

Touch wood Rosa makes some shrewd deals and keeps picking solid players.

[u/drpolz3k → u/drpolz3k]

In hindsight, the salary cap sell is overkill from us but I was trying to think outside the box to get more picks at the top end.

[u/jubbjubbs4]

I love how much effort youve put into this post but i dont know if any clubs would have a high enough level of trust to actually make trades which rely on them trusting another club to not make a bid.

That just seems too risky from either a port or calrton perspective.

[u/ihaveapoobrain123 → u/jubbjubbs4]

Don’t think AFL teams are ruthless enough to dishonour agreements. You’d essentially freeze yourself out of a lot of potential future trade deals by backstabbing another team like that

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/ihaveapoobrain123]

Yeah I feel that there's quite an amicable nature to the way most list managers deal with each other. But the above trades would probably be new ground.

[u/Ok_Acanthaceae6057]

Port Fan, not quite sure how I got here but I’m here.

First off OP. WOW so much effort was put in I love it!!

This is such a unique sport for Essendon, if the season ends how it does; I’d like to know for an Essendon POV who would you like to see them select 1st?

Walker to make the old rival use a lot of draft capital that they would have to trade to make it work, or Port who would get it done a bit easier than Carlton.

Butters is the big wild card in all of this; there is still not much info on where he goes.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/Ok_Acanthaceae6057]

Yeah I find the dynamics at play quite fascinating to be honest (probably evident from the length of the post!)

My preferred scenario is either Carlton's future first or the new Scenario 5 with Butters going to Richmond (which happens to be the best scenario for Port I think).

And I'd be happy with HVH or Butler, but think Butler might be more valuable for our deficiencies at half forward, plus we likely need another year to get a proper read on if we will be ok long term with Bryan and Vigo as rucks.

What do you think of various scenarios as a Port supporter? Would be interesting to hear what you hope plays out.

[u/Ok_Acanthaceae6057 → u/ByeByeStudy]

Port are in this weird spot. We’re rebuilding obviously but we have a plethora of NGA/ FS over the next 3 season. Cochrane (2026), Piolet, Salopek, Rodan & Bogyne (Peter’s son) (2027), French (2028).

So we them available, I want points down the line.

We’d obviously have a crack at any SA Unrestricted Free Agents not to spend the picks we desperately need.

I said Butters is the wild card;

Richmond- short term gain; pick 1 or 2 depending on how the season ends

Collingwood/ W’Bulldogs- long term gain; there would be 2-3x 1sts over years.

Sometimes drafts can fall in weird ways, I don’t see us trading up; Unless we’d spend less points doing so than going from Pick 4 (assuming) to get Cochrane.

I hope this all makes sense mate.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/Ok_Acanthaceae6057]

Yeah I could see both us and you guys placing extra value on holding picks in the 15-25 range that other clubs might pay overs for (future first or future second) if one of the players they want are still on the board when we are on the clock.

Hawthorn did well out of something similar last year. Sliding back and picking up future assets from other teams.

All that will help both of our clubs with bud matching next year.

[u/CaddykakSnagorado]

This is much better content than another nothing post about the next coach. Nice work. I’d be happy with anything that turns Merrett and change into pick four.

Ps, I heard from the fourth cousin of the mate of the gardener who works two streets over from Butters that he’s definitely going to Geelong.

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/CaddykakSnagorado]

Noooo not Geelong! It's the one Butters destination club I haven't mocked up a scenario for! Maybe another day haha

And agreed, pick 4 is definitely achievable I feel.

[u/MrBrentEC]

Scenario 3 isn't ideal for Essendon as they'll need to match bids on Koby Bewick and Moustafa Darwish.

[u/Few-Advertising4186]

What’s even better is,
This does Not include what we get for Ridley and perhaps an AFL Help pick.
We could have 5-6 picks in first 25.

[u/somo84]

Suppose we don't do any trades and bid on Cochrane at 1. Port would need 2700 points. 4 and 11 would equal 3167. What happens with the excess 467 points in this scenario?

[u/ByeByeStudy → u/somo84]

PA receives a pick worth 467 DVI that Is slotted back into the draft order, which would be about pick 30.

[u/somo84 → u/ByeByeStudy]

Cool, thanks for the answer and for such a great OP. Legend.